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North American equity markets started the year on a positive note with the S&P 500 Index up by ~+1.4% and S&P TSX Index by ~+0.70% for month of January. The returns on fixed-income assets were more muted for the month with aggregate fixed income indices in green by +0.11% in the United States and +0.54% in Canada. That said, the month was anything but uneventful. At the start of the year, the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela and captured the sitting president of the country, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife Cilia Flores, on charges of narco-terrorism. While we think the event had the potential to spook the investors; the market reaction was as uneventful as the resistance faced by United States military in Venezuela. The United States president claimed use of a new weapon “The Discombobulator”, which allegedly disabled the Venezuelan military equipment and rendered the military/security personnel incapacitated by causing confusion and disorientation. The event met with limited criticism from other countries, and it became clear very soon that the likelihood of this becoming a drawn-out conflict is very low. Consequently, capital market’s reaction was merely a shrug on the development. However, that was not the only discombobulation of the past few weeks. The price action witnessed for gold, silver, bitcoin and software sector could easily be classified as ones that had the potential to have similar kind impact on investors. Gold prices moved up by ~+25.41% during the month before crashing by ~-14% and silver prices jumped by ~+62.8% before crashing by ~-32.1%, during 29th January to 2nd February (See Figure 1). Bitcoin prices that had already seen a drawdown of ~-33% during October-November 2025, witnessed renewed selling pressure starting 29th January and is down by -25% as of 11th February (See Figure 2). The software sector has been under pressure since November last year and is facing fresh drawdown on concerns that developments in artificial intelligence tools will make the software sector obsolete (See Figure 3). In our previous updates, we alluded to the likelihood that in 2026 the markets will begin to discriminate between AI winners and AI Losers. Thus far, we note the selling in the software sector has been indiscriminate. After the dust settles, we think the recent price action will provide the opportunity to pick up quality assets on sale. Similarly, the fundamental arguments in favour of gold and silver prices to appreciate also remain intact. Figure 1: Gold and Silver (USD) Source: Bloomberg   Figure 2: Bitcoin (USD) Source: Bloomberg   Figure 3: The S&P North American Technology Software Index That said, we do not rule out the possibility of more dizzying price moves in pockets of markets as the year progresses. Overall net positive economic data and expected earnings growth of the corporates for the year makes a case for constructive outlook for the equity markets for 2026. However, layering on the potential for more geopolitical tensions and unexpected announcements from the United States as the mid-term elections approach; we now have an environment that is ripe for more potential discombobulation, in our view. For example - The CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico) trade deal is up for its first review by July 1 st and the news flow around US President’s threat to block opening of Gordie Howe International Bridge connecting Detroit to Windsor; and him considering withdrawing from the CUSMA deal has started to hit the tape. If the performance of Republicans in the recent special elections is any indicator where even traditionally red districts have shifted to blue, Democrats appear to have an upper hand in upcoming mid-term elections. The Trump administration is not oblivious to this, which explains somewhat softening up on its stance on immigration policies recently. As the elections approach, we can expect more announcements to appease the voting base and/or perhaps escalate tensions with international partners to deflect their attention from domestic issues. This should bring about more volatility, in our opinion. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve both decided to hold the policy rates at their current levels, +2.25% and +3.75%; respectively. Bank of Canada governing council said that United States’ actions have increased uncertainty and thus the central bank can not be sure if the next move is likely a hike or a cut. The US Federal Reserve said that the US economy has been stronger than expected and labour markets have shown signs of stabilization thereby allowing the central bank to move with caution on any future adjustments. The Fed chair also maintained that he remains confident that the Federal Reserve’s can maintain its independence. The US President announced his next Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, which also helped calm investors nerves on the topic of Fed’s independence. Kevin Warsh served as member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and is known for being a strong proponent of Fed’s independence. He also has the reputation of being a hawk, i.e., propensity to side with higher interest rates to control inflation. Though his recent comments suggest he prefers to see lower interest rates as he believes risks to inflation are on the downside. If inflation is contained, Kevin Warsh’s will find the job easy, however, if inflation starts to increase; he will likely find himself at odds with the US President’s wish to lower interest rates. We think the markets will have difficulty reading the likely move in such a scenario. We expect the markets will get more clarity on his approach once he assumes the position. Overall, we continue to see potential for more volatility during the year. Nevertheless, we note that market participation is broadening; economic data remains constructive and corporate earnings growth story is pointing towards another positive year. We think staying diversified to mitigate volatility and nimble to pick dislocated assets is the best way to navigate through any discombobulations that could hit the markets along the way. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The North American equity markets ended the last month of the year on a positive note despite several worries on investors’ minds. The concerns ranging from increasing geopolitical tensions, future profitability of companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure, to the policy rate trajectory amid still high inflation and a softening labour market weighed on investor sentiments for the most part in December. The ongoing uncertainty helped demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver which led the resources sector heavy on a S&P TSX index gain ~+2.2% in December. On the other hand, S&P 500 index initially dropped as investors rotated out from the growth-oriented index heavyweights towards value-oriented names; but later recovered owing to the typical seasonal year-end the ‘Santa Claus’ rally. Overall, the S&P 500 Index managed to eke out ~+0.6% total return for the month. The markets have started the year 2026 on a positive note so far despite several concerns largely remaining in place. The United States’ military operation in Venezuela to topple the Nicolas Maduro regime followed by United States’ coast guards seizing a Russian-flagged oil tanker after a chase across the Atlantic did not spook the investors as retaliatory response from either Venezuela or Russia was limited. That said, the comments from the Trump administration during the press conference after the capture of Nicolas Maduro on Cuba, Colombia and Greenland suggests that more such episodes with a potential to increase geo-political tensions during the year cannot be ruled out. Perhaps the most concerning development has been the subpoenas served to the United States’ Central Bank from the Department of Justice threatening a criminal indictment. The United States Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, issued a statement stating that the threat of criminal indictment has been driven by refusing to bow to President’s wishes to reduce interest rates. The Fed chair further added that this is about the Central Bank’s ability to continue to set policy rates based on economic conditions or directed by political pressure. Any concern around independence of the world’s most important Central Bank can spook the fixed income markets and send the yields higher. In this scenario, the Trump administration would have shot itself in the foot as instead of achieving reduced borrowing costs for the government by reducing interest rates they would have increased borrowing costs and the cascading effect of the same in real economy and financial markets. We think the Trump administration is not oblivious to this possibility and hence is likely to proceed with caution on this front. The President denied any involvement in directing Department of Justice towards this end. Further, the move also met with a criticism from many lawmakers with some even saying that they will block the Trump’s Fed nominees, thereby avoiding a knee-jerk reaction from markets, in our opinion. In addition to the above, we note the announcements such as a pledge to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to reduce the mortgage rates and a capping the interest rate charged by credit card companies to 10%. Given that have republicans have lost several elections recently, we think the above moves are aimed to appease the United States public with an eye on mid-term elections. If implemented, some of these decisions could change the attractiveness of some areas over the other at a short notice. Further, given the opposition, the uncertainty around actual implementation of such decisions remains high, in our view. We think markets have responded to the uncertainty by allocating towards pockets within the safe-haven assets with less ambiguity such as gold and silver in addition to rotating portion of investments towards relatively safer sectors such as consumer staples. Notwithstanding the uncertainty, the balance of incoming economic data continues to remain supportive of risk assets. As per the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, members are leaning towards one more rate cut during the year 2026, while as per the Fed Funds Futures, the markets are expecting two rate cuts before the year-end. No rate cuts are expected by either Bank of Canada or financial markets on this side of the border. The evidence of softening in the labour markets has kept the pressure off the central banks to increase interest rates even as inflation remains somewhat elevated. Overall, we think economic environment and policy rate trajectory remains supportive for the risk assets. However, given the nature of uncertainty, we continue to advocate for selectivity while staying diversified for a broad range of outcomes in such an environment. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

North American capital markets have been witnessing choppy markets since the beginning of November as investors moved from one concern to another in a short span of time. From worries around impact of extended government shutdown on the state of the economy to if the United States Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut on December 10 th , the date for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, to if the extent of capital expenditure done to build the artificial intelligence infrastructure will eventually yield results for companies have kept investors on toes. Any company taking on leverage to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has been punished. In addition, any company across the artificial intelligence value chain failing to even slightly meet the lofty investor expectations has been met with increasing scepticism in the recent weeks. We do not doubt the transformational power of the technology and think the value will become more apparent as the industry and technology matures over time and starts to showcase more use cases and productivity benefits. That said, we think the markets will begin to differentiate between artificial intelligence winners and losers in 2026. Given the major players put on this litmus test are also the heavy weights in the indices; the choppiness at the index level is more likely to continue, in our view. Further, the recent weeks have also seen rotation away from the heavy weights to the laggards in the index. The broadening of markets is generally a good sign for the bulls. That said, for the index laggards to continue to play catch-up they will also have to demonstrate earnings growth. Declining interest rates could help to bring the interest expenses down; however, the ability to pass on the tariffs will differentiate between companies’ ability to protect margins. Tariffs have largely stayed in place and thus far companies have largely decided to not pass on tariffs to customers in expectations of a resolution. Going forward, this is likely to change as many companies reach their limits to not pass on the tariffs. Even if the Supreme Court rules tariffs as illegal, the Trump administration will try to figure out other ways to collect levies. This will keep policy uncertainty elevated. Another dynamic keeping policy uncertainty elevated is guidance from the Central Banks. On the 10th of December, the Bank of Canada kept policy rates unchanged at 2.25% and guided to hold rates steady in line with market expectations. The United States Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis-points cut on December 10th,  also in line with expectations, however, market expectations witnessed unusually large variations from the 29th of October (the previous meeting and guidance date) to the 10 th  of December (See Figure 1) (from ~68.9% on October 29, 2025 to ~29.3% on November 19 th , 2025 and then back to 93.4% on 10 th  December 2025). In other words, the markets are anticipating higher policy uncertainty in the United States as relative to Canada. Figure 1:  %Cut implied by Fed Funds Futures (US) and Overnight Index Swaps (Canada) Source: Bloomberg Overall, we think selectivity will be the key to navigate the uncertain set-up of 2026. Leaning on the recent trends in markets, the ability of laggard companies to meet expectations of earnings growth and the ability of the companies in the artificial intelligence value chain to demonstrate tangible value amid the uncertain policy backdrop will differentiate between winners and losers in 2026, in our view.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

After ignoring the risks from the government shutdown for a long period, the North American capital markets finally appeared on a shaky ground after the United States’ government shutdown entered its longest run. Historically, the markets have largely ignored the government shutdowns as they typically get resolved before they begin to cause lasting damage to the economy. However, the current shutdown carrying on beyond the 35 days (previous record) put together with air travel disruptions reaching a critical stage and on top of disruption of several key economic data releases which investors and Fed officials rely on to take decisions added to investors angst during the past few weeks. While the extended government shutdown finally tested the investors patience, a few other concerns too have been building for a while. The chatter on whether Artificial Intelligence related stocks are in a bubble territory has been building for some time after their continued advance over the past few months. This was compounded by statements from leadership of a few banks, who during their third-quarter earnings releases said that they think a few areas of Artificial Intelligence related stocks have frothy valuations. We think high valuation alone can bring about some volatility; however, is not the reason enough to derail the bullish momentum in equities. As per Bloomberg data, the earnings-per-share for S&P 500 Index is expected to increase by ~+12.9% for the year 2026; while the earnings-per-share for the Bloomberg Artificial Intelligence Total Return Index is expected to increase by ~+23.9% for the year 2026. In other words, the relatively higher valuation of Artificial Intelligence companies has justification in their earnings story, in our opinion. We think the policy rates trajectory from the Central Banks remains a tailwind for capital markets and should continue to be constructive for the markets. The bond yields had been declining in anticipation of a policy rate cut for the most part during the month of October up until the announcement of a rate cut decisions on 29 th  October by the United States Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. On the decision date both the Central Banks cut policy rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada reduced the policy rate to +2.25% from +2.50% and the Federal Reserve reduced the policy rate to +4.00% from +4.25%. Despite getting the cuts as expected, the bond yields advanced after the announcement of rate cut decisions as both banks downplayed on the expectations of further rate cuts. Tiff Macklem, the governor of Bank of Canada, said that policy rates are low enough to stimulate the economy; while Jerome Powell, the chair of United States’ Federal Reserve, said that ‘further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion’. (See Figure 1) Figure 1: Bond yields advanced after rate decisions Source: Bloomberg Notwithstanding the hawkish tone, we note that the United States Federal Reserve will end the process of shrinking its Balance Sheet as on 1 st  December; and while the data remains scant; the evidence continues to point towards still weak labour market. Inflation has been creeping up for past few months; however, it is likely that Federal Reserve stays more tolerant of higher inflation to support the economic growth. Further, any resolution to reopen the government will alleviate any immediate concerns from investors. As of this writing, the US Senate had made progress towards ending the shutdown. We think the current balance of risks continues to point towards a constructive environment for the risk assets. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The month of September defied the expected seasonality of typically being a weak month of the year and both equity and fixed income asset classes witnessed positive performance for the month. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were in green by ~+4.25% and ~+4.92%; respectively, while the aggregate fixed income indices were up by ~+1.33% in the United States and ~+2.29% in Canada. The risk assets rallied in anticipation of the start of a policy rate cut cycle after a long pause on both sides of the border. The Central Banks did not disappoint investors as the Bank of Canada reduced the policy rate by 25 basis-points from +2.75% to +2.50% and the United States Federal Reserve also reduced the policy rate by 25 basis-points and brought the policy rate down from +4.50% to +4.25%. The expectations of the start of the rate cut cycle had been building after the United States’ Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, had indicated at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, that downside risks to employment are rising and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance. The unemployment rate in Canada has been persistently on a rise and has increased from +6.6% at the start of the year to +7.1% during the month of August (reported in September). Relatively, the unemployment rate in the United States has not increased at a similar pace and has increased from +4.0% at the start of the year to +4.3% during August (reported in September) (See Figure 1). However, it is noteworthy that the crackdown on the immigrant workers in the United States has complicated the proper measurement of the unemployment rate. As immigrant workers drop out of the work force, they do not form part of the calculation of labour force, and this conceals the true weakness in labour market. During the press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 17 th  of September; Jerome Powell acknowledged that the headline unemployment number perhaps does not indicate the true extent of labour weakness and though the inflation has not yet reached the desired target of +2.0%; the balance of risks have shifted to warrant policy rate adjustment. The Federal Reserve chair also said there is no risk-free path for the bank’s next moves as inflation is still elevated. Figure 1: Unemployment rate has been increasing steadily Source: Bloomberg We note that there is indeed ‘no easy path’ for the United States’ Federal Reserve as inflation and unemployment are not the only worries the country must face. Due to the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labour Statistics does not have the manpower to collect data and provide estimates of several key economic releases that feed into forming views of the members on Federal Reserve’s board. These include important datapoints such as non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and the consumer price index. The risk to the independence of Federal Reserve have been well discussed and risks spooking the fixed income investors at a time when yields are already high and the United States national debt is at an all time high of ~$37.8 trillion. Lisa Cook, a Fed board member, who has been targeted by the US President on accusations of mortgage fraud; has managed to get a stay on her firing until January. Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee to the Fed’s board after a member resigned, voted for a 50 basis points cut at the September meeting while the rest of members voted for 25 basis points. Investors are viewing the appointment of Stephen Miran on Fed’s board of governors as a step towards exerting greater influence of the White House on the US Federal Reserve’s decisions. Overall, the Federal Reserve appears to be facing challenges on many fronts. Nevertheless, we think the Central Banks cutting policy rates in a slowing but still growing economy put together with still robust earnings expectations for the year 2026 continue to bode well for the risk assets performance in the foreseeable future. We also think developments around Federal Reserve losing its independence, flaring up of geo-political tensions, companies’ guidance for the 2026 outlook during the third quarter earnings season; and/or resurgence of trade wars are the risks to be monitored in an increasingly volatile world. Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

After four consecutive positive months, stretched equity valuations and standing on the cusp of seasonally weak month of September, the chatter about the equity markets in North America has sounded understandably cautious in the recent weeks. Nevertheless, we think a few recent developments have made the case for continued positive performance of North American equities stronger. The fixed income markets on the other hand have been choppy throughout this year despite building expectations of start of rate cut cycle at some point during this year. Concerns around re-emergence of inflationary pressures and the United States’ Federal Reserve potentially loosing its independence have been on top of Investors mind, in our opinion. The United States’ President has been publicly mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for some time now. In a latest move to mount further pressure, the US President fired, Lisa Cook, who is on the Fed’s board to set policy rates. The accusations of mortgage fraud from the head of Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, was considered as reason enough for the US President to reach this decision. The Fed board member, Lisa Cook, however, has challenged the order and the case is now in courts. The fact that William Pulte, an appointee of the US President, has made similar accusations against his other political opponents has had investors see through this as a partisan move. This development followed shortly after accusations on Jerome Powell of lavishly spending to renovate Fed’s headquarters and calls from White House that the Fed chair should resign. Inserting political actors in Federal Reserve board could result in decisions that favour short term political goals rather than long term stability of economy. This risk is rising at a time when the US national debt is at all time high of ~USD 37 trillion (Debt-to-GDP ratio of ~128%), and is certain to spook fixed income investors, in our view. Not surprisingly, during August, the short-end of yield curve dropped and the long-end of the curve advanced resulting in steepening of the curve (See Figure 1). In other words, short-end reacted to rising expectations of potential interest rate cut in the short-term, while long-end expressed less confidence in the resolution of the current debt situation of the United States over long-term. Figure 1: United States yield curve steepened during August 2025 Source: Bloomberg We think Fed’s independence is a legitimate concern and developments around this are worth watching. We also note that the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, indicated in his prepared remarks for the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, that downside risks to employment are rising and shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance. Given that Jerome Powell had been fighting pressure from White House successfully throughout this year, we think the comments were made on legitimate concerns around economic developments rather than due to political pressure. Several economic data points on labour market during the first week of September indicated softening of labour market and justified the opinion expressed by the United States’ Fed chair, Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole Speech. As per Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Jobs Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, the Job openings for the month of July (reported in September) were at 7181k, lower-than-expected number of 7380k, while the layoffs were at 1808k, higher-than-expected number of 1639k. The ADP data on US private sector hiring indicated that private jobs increased by 54k in August, lower-than-expected number of 68k and were down from 106k jobs added during the month of July. For the Month of August, the Bureau of Labour Statistics data on nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls was at 22k and 38k, respectively; lower-than-expected number of 75k for both. Also, the unemployment rate increased from +4.2% in July to +4.3% in August in the United States and from +6.90% to +7.10% in Canada. With the labour market showing signs of cooling, the central banks on both sides of the border are expected to cut interest rates in their upcoming respective meetings on 17 September. Higher inflation numbers could dent expectations of rate cuts for some market participants and could also become an excuse for markets to shed some of the recent gains. However, we think any sell-off in markets should be taken as an opportunity to add positions. Given the likelihood of economy to run hot, i.e., higher growth and higher inflation; we think investors will better be placed to beat the inflation by staying invested in risk assets rather than sit on side-lines. Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Bloomberg   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

North American capital markets witnessed continued optimism from the equity investors on the back of progress on the trade talks while the skepticism of fixed income investors was visible in the choppy price action during the month of June. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were both in green for the month while aggregate fixed income index was flat in Canada and green in the United States. The change in tone of the Trump administration from escalating rhetoric on tariffs to telegraphing that several deals with trading partners are underway with good progress being made in discussions helped alleviate the concerns in equities markets. The reports of softer economic data in the United States led to an increase in expectations of policy rates cuts sooner than later despite the continued caution in the tone of the Federal Reserve bank. The bond yields in the United States dropped by ~16-to-17 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures of the yield curve (see Figure 1). On the other hand, the bond yields in Canada advanced by ~0-to-8 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures on the yield curve (see Figure 2). Figure 2: Canada Sovereign Curve We think the biggest relief the markets received during the month was the progress made on the trade talks, especially with China. Early on during the month, the news flow of constructive trade talks with China led to a restart of rare earth minerals exports to the United States, and eventually, an announcement that an understanding has been reached with China on the trade framework lifted market sentiment, in our opinion. In early July, United States also eased restrictions on export of chip design software to China. The optimism around trade was more than sufficient for equity markets to shrug off the risks from escalating tensions in the middle east and continued caution cited by the central banks. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both decided to keep policy rates at +4.50% and 2.75%; respectively. The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, stated that there is too much uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on inflation and unemployment rate; however, given that the economic data is benign for now, the Fed can afford to wait before making any decisions. The Bank of Canada’s governor, Tiff Macklem, also stated uncertainty around the United States trade policy in the backdrop of a somewhat softer economy and a firming up of inflation as reasons for the decision to stay put. The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ was signed into law on July 4th, 2025. As per the latest estimates of the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is expected to reduce expenditures by ~$1.2 trillion and reduce revenues by ~$4.4 trillion with a net effect of adding a deficit of ~$3.2 trillion over a period of next 10 years (2025-2034). The combination of higher interest rates along with increasing debt does not paint a good picture for United States’ fiscal situation. The United States’ President, Donald J. Trump, has been openly expressing his displeasure of the higher interest rates and criticizing the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for holding the interest rates high for too long. The attacks add to the jitters of fixed income investors as they question what might be the consequence of Federal Reserve losing its independence when the United States’ fiscal situation and trajectory is not looking pretty. Nevertheless, we also note that the messaging from the Trump administration has changed to that they have realized the path of growing the economy out of debt burden is perhaps a more reasonable way rather than expenditure cuts, which will impact economic growth adversely. Looking ahead, we think incremental softening of economic data in North America will increase the pressure on central banks to ease the monetary policy and therefore supportive of markets. If inflation remains under control, the case for central banks to keep policy rates on pause will get weaker. We also think the market volatility driven by erratic nature of policy making from Trump administration will remain elevated. However, provided that no substantially damaging policy is announced and implemented, markets should adapt and refocus on economic fundamentals. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As we cross the halfway mark of 2025, now is the perfect time for a financial check-up. It is a great idea to review the goals you set for yourself – whether it be saving, paying down debt, or finalizing your budget. Here are some things to consider:   1. Review your Financial Goals   Start by revisiting the goals you set at the beginning of the year. Think about the following: Saving a specific amount (e.g., emergency fund, down payment, etc.) Reducing debt (credit cards, student loans, mortgage, etc.) Investing for retirement or other long-term objectives Increasing income or side hustles Creating a budget and sticking to it   Ask yourself: Have I made any progress? Are these goals still realistic? Do I need to adjust my timelines?   2. Assess your Expenses   Compare your actual spending to your budget for the first half of the year.   Key questions: Are there items you consistently overspend on? Have any new expenses emerged? Can you cut back in certain areas to reallocate funds to your goals?   If your budget has drifted, now’s the time to make thoughtful adjustments.   3. Check on your Debt Reduction Progress   If paying down debt was a priority this year, check how much you have paid off and how much remains. Consider: Your current debt balances and interest rates Progress towards your payoff goals (e.g., “Debt-Free by 2026”) Whether you can increase payments in the second half of the year   You might also consider refinancing or consolidating debt if interest rates have shifted in your favour.   5. Review Investments and Retirement Accounts   Markets fluctuate, and so should your investment strategy — within reason. It’s important to have a sense of the types of investments you hold and if there may be better options for you. Your Financial Advisor can help ensure you are invested properly for your goals and risk tolerance.    6. What about Emergencies?   Ideally, have 3 to 6 months of expenses set aside. If you're not there yet, determine a realistic monthly savings goal to build up our emergency fund by year-end.   7. Plan for the Rest of 2025   Use what you’ve learned to refine your roadmap. Some steps might include: Setting a “no-spend” month to curb habits. Adjusting automatic savings or debt payments Scheduling a meeting with your Financial Advisor   Consider upcoming expenses like summer vacations or even Christmas, though it seems like a long time away. It’s vital to get ahead and plan for bigger expenses like these.   A mid-year financial check-in isn't just a good habit — it’s a powerful strategy for success. Small changes made today can significantly impact your financial well-being by the end of the year and beyond.    Allison Martin is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of April proved to be a roller coaster for investors around the globe. The markets were jolted as Trump administration unveiled his Reciprocal Tariff plans. If implemented as indicated, the plans implied that supply chains would choke, inflation would rise due to supply shortages; and economic growth would suffer as high uncertainty would force corporates to postpone capital expenditure decisions and households to curtail discretionary spending. Mr. Market immediately gave a thumbs down to the Trump administration’s announcements and the probability increased that a high volatility in capital markets could even lead to a systemic event. We believe the reaction from Mr. Market led the Trump Administration to re-think their plan. After going back-and-forth on the tariffs policy several times during the month, it now appears that there is an overall gradual de-escalation of the rhetoric on trade war. The soft economic data points such as consumer confidence, investor sentiment, inflationary expectations, and CEO confidence all showed a decline. The hard data such as unemployment, inflation, and retail sales have held up well. The divergence suggests that the impact of the tariffs policy is yet to be seen on the real economy. The good news is that the Trump administration is dialing back its hawkish stance and back peddling on many of the announced tariffs. The bad news is that a baseline 10% tariff on most goods is still in place, which is still high by historical measures. In addition, the adverse impact of policy uncertainty on the real economy is yet to become apparent, i.e. the hard economic data could also show softness in the coming months, in our view. In the short-term, we think risk assets are likely to welcome the developments as the outlook relatively improves from worse to less bad. In the medium-term, we think risk assets will have to discount the reality of the economic impact as it becomes apparent in the coming months. It is likely that inflation shows an uptick, and that unemployment also rises while economic growth slows. The ‘stagflationary’ environment will complicate the task of the U.S. Federal Reserve as its dual mandate (low inflation and low unemployment) could be at odds with each other. In such a scenario, lowering interest rates to support the softening economy (and thus help decrease unemployment) could further add to inflationary pressures. After its latest (Federal Open Market Committee) FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to hold policy rates steady at +4.50%. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, mentioned that it is likely that the Fed might face rising inflation and rising unemployment rates due to the tariffs and that the Fed would prefer to see how it plays out before deciding on policy rates. The Bank of Canada also decided to hold rates steady at +2.75% given the tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think the labor market data will be closely watched for any signs of deterioration in the real economy. If inflation rises due to the supply shock, the policy rates will be less effective in combating the same, in our view. If unemployment rises as economic growth slows, we think the Federal Reserve will not have a very strong argument to hold interest rates steady - even in face of higher inflation. Policy support should keep the overall investor sentiment constructive even if the economy witnesses some hiccups in the interim. Barring any further escalations on the trade war, we think the risk-on market sentiment is likely to prevail until hard economic data shows any signs of softness. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As a Financial Advisor, I often get asked variations of the following questions: When can I retire? How much do I need to save for retirement? What is my magic number?   Although I deal with these questions regularly, there is no simple answer. Instead, my role as a Financial Advisor is to help guide my clients through all the potential variables and build a plan that focuses on their specific goals. A holistic planning approach will look at your values and goals and take into consideration both qualitative and quantitative measures. Some of the initial questions I approach clients with include:   When would you like to retire?   Having a time in mind will allow your Financial Advisor to implement realistic savings strategies. If you are looking to retire at 55, then you will need to take a more aggressive savings approach or be willing to minimize your expenses in retirement. If you plan to retire at age 65 or 70, we can likely take a more balanced approach to savings. For a married couple, does retirement happen at the same time? Do you wait until your children are out of high school?   Where will you live in retirement? Housing can play a major factor in your retirement plan. Do you plan to stay in your current house forever? Will you need to do any renovations in retirement? Will you need to downsize from a two-storey house to a bungalow? Is it realistic to expect an influx of cash when you downsize or will the value of the homes be similar. Are you currently renting and would you like to continue renting in retirement? What about a cottage or travel?   What government pensions will you have? Are you currently earning a salary and paying into the Canada Pension Plan? Are you on track to get the maximum CPP or only a portion of it? For 2025, the maximum monthly CPP payment for a 65-year-old is $1,433. Is this realistic based on your situation? The average 65-year-old only receives $899.67 monthly in CPP. By logging into your My Service Canada account, you can see your statement of contributions and pull your CPP pension amount estimate.   Another source of income to consider is your Old Age Security (OAS). Have you lived in Canada your entire life? Do you know that Old Age Security is considered a social benefit, the government provides this payment for low- and middle-income Canadians. If your net income exceeds $90,997, you will start to see a portion of the OAS clawed back and when your net income exceeds $148,451, you will lose your entire OAS for the year.   Do you have a workplace pension plan, group RRSP or personal investments? In the past many employers provided their employees with the benefit of a defined benefit pension plan. A defined benefit pension plan provides a scheduled monthly payment in retirement based on your age, income, and the number of years you worked. As defined benefit pension plans can be very costly and hard to manage for an employer, many employers have switched to defined contribution pension plan (DCPP). With a DCPP there is a set contribution by both the employee and the employer, and the monthly payment in retirement is based on investment returns and not guaranteed. Is your workplace pension enough to support you in retirement? Is it a fully funded plan or is it at risk of being reduced? For those without a pension plan, are you contributing to a group registered retirement savings plan or a personal registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or a tax-free savings account (TFSA)?   What debts will you have in retirement? What debts are you currently carrying and will they be paid off before you enter retirement? Going into retirement with a balance on your mortgage or with credit card debt can significantly impact your ability to fund your day-to-day retirement expenses. If your retirement is in 17 years, but you have 20 years left on your mortgage, what strategies can you implement to have it paid off before retirement?   These five main questions can help kick start the financial planning process. There are so many more variables to consider and bring together to build your unique plan. Do not be afraid of the process, sit with your Financial Advisor and work through the questions, identify your goals and begin implementing strategies for retirement. There is no cookie-cutter approach to retirement planning. No simple calculation. Every individual and every family is unique.   Let the Financial Advisors at O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning of Assante Capital Management Ltd. build your plan. Book a complimentary meeting today.   Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/payment-amounts.html Sarah Chisholm is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of March witnessed continued caution by investors ahead of the much-awaited White House announcements on reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd, 2025. The confrontational posturing of the Trump administration towards United States’ trading partners had investors braced for some form of an adverse outcome. Taking cues from the announced objectives of the White House on trade imbalances, investors tried to gauge and discount the extent and magnitude of the tariffs and re-priced risk assets. The S&P 500 Index was down by ~-5.75% and the S&P TSX was down by ~-1.87% during March. The expectation among market participants was that the Trump administration team is working in the background to analyze the tariff and non-tariff barriers of its trading partners (an arduous task), which gave an appearance that the reciprocal tariff policy would be based on sound economic reasoning. Market participants also held on to hopes that lifting the uncertainty could support the markets after the sell-off. To their surprise, the scope and extent of tariffs announced were much larger-than-expected and were based on a simple mathematical formula with questionable logic.  In response to the reality of what these tariffs would imply for corporate profit margins, inflation, and global economic activity, the global markets sell-off accelerated immediately after the announcements. In our previous update, we alluded that for the probability of the market outlook to improve from here, either the Trump administration must capitulate as the adverse market reaction builds pressure and/or the opposition finds its footing and stages a push bask. As of this writing, markets are rallying as the United States President has announced a pause on the tariffs for 90 days on countries willing to negotiate. He also announced a hike of tariffs to 125% on China as it refused to negotiate. We think the adverse market reaction immediately after the announcement of tariffs, or in other words, a severe push back from Mr. Market on the reciprocal tariff policy had the administration thinking about the policy even though they maintained their tough posturing. The recent turbulence in the bond markets after the 10-year yield jumped by ~+60 basis points within a few days (see figure 1) causing industry participants to speculate if any event of substantial stress in the fixed income markets is near. Further, increasing news flow of countries gravitating towards China had made it clear that the actions of the Trump administration could ‘Make China Strong Again’ rather than America. Figure 1: US 10-yr yield jumped up sharply after reciprocal tariffs announcement Source: Bloomberg We think the above factors contributed to an announcement of a pause on Trump’s tariff policy. However, since the tariffs are paused for 90-days and have not been rolled back; and a minimum of 10% tariff is still applicable, we think the case for inflation to increase in the future remains in place. Furthermore, tensions with China will stay elevated. The first-quarter earnings season could shed light on the impact of the uncertain environment on the earnings outlook and could again weigh on the sentiment. We think the case to keep a defensive tilt in portfolios is intact for now.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

We try to teach our kids to be resilient, to know right from wrong, to stand up for themselves, to be polite and to work hard. Some of us teach our kids about money and finances. How can we ensure that once they are on their own that they will have all the advice that they need to live independently and be financially responsible? I often get asked by clients if I can work with their children. Sometimes because the parents don’t have the knowledge, but more often because much of what kids need to know isn’t taught in schools today. Often, advice from a third party is generally better accepted by youth.  I enjoy collaborating with young clients. I have two children who are just starting out in life, and I see how important it is that they have a good financial foundation. There are many types of accounts today that historically did not exist, and each one has its own set of contribution and withdrawal rules. Navigating these accounts, along with the tax implications of these accounts, shows how vital financial advice is at all stages in life. Financial Advisors can give the right advice and help you plan to ensure your money is working effectively for you as a young person. Aside from the types of accounts and investments, here is a little advice I give all young people on what I call “Money Skills for Youth”. Save Regularly - getting into a habit of saving regularly early on in life will ensure that you have the things you want now, as well as later. Start a Budget – understand your cash flow – income and expenses. The Power of Compound Interest and the Rule of 72! If you start saving at 15 and you earn 8% you need to invest approximately $125 a month to have $1Million at age 65. 72 divided by the interest rate is the number of years it will take you to double your money. Debt – never borrow to buy what you cannot pay off or you cannot resell. Diversification - when you are getting started with investing understand your risk tolerance, time horizon, and choose a diversified portfolio to reduce risk. If you are young and looking for advice or have children getting started with a savings plan, reach out to your Financial Advisor who can help to produce the right plan. A good plan always starts with good advice.   Cynthia Batchelor is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-935-6254 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.