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North American markets witnessed historical recovery with the S&P 500 Index advancing by ~+9.6% and S&P TSX Index by ~+3.0% in April. While the ceasefire announced on April 7th ignited investor enthusiasm on hopes of a truce between the United States, Israel and Iran; the positive momentum was accentuated by the first-quarter earnings season starting in late April. As of this writing, nearly 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported first calendar-quarter earnings; where approximately 83.56% have delivered better-than-expected earnings and approximately 73.56% have delivered better-than-expected revenues. For context, during the prior earnings season these figures were +74.95% for positive earnings surprise and +64.33% for positive revenues surprise. The positive momentum is also visible in earnings growth estimates of S&P 500 Index and S&P TSX Index. As per Bloomberg data, for the year 2026, the earnings-per-share growth for S&P 500 Index has increased from +13.8% at the turn of the year to +21.7% and for S&P TSX Index has increased from +16.0% to +25.6%, as of this writing. Improving earnings growth momentum put together with reduction in geopolitical risk premium led to the whipsaw in North American equity markets during the last two months. Equity markets generally do well in an environment where earnings are growing and economic data is supportive. The headline inflation in the United States jumped from +2.4% year-over-year in February to +3.8% year-over-year in April. The jump was driven by prices in energy, energy commodities, and airfares. The core inflation, which excludes the impact of food and energy, also jumped from +2.5% year-over-year in February to +2.8% year-over-year in April however, the jump can be largely attributed to statistical adjustments made by Bureau of Labor Statistics. While an argument can be made inflationary pressures are yet to show up in core inflation and hence less worrisome, we think more datapoints persistently pointing to risks of higher inflation in the future will force investors to take notice at some point. The headline Producers Price Index in the United States for the month of April jumped to +6.0% year-over-year from +4.0% year-over-year in March and was ahead of expected +4.8% year-over-year. In Canada, the headline inflation increased to +2.4% year-over-year in March from +1.8% year-over-year in February and unemployment inched up to +6.9% year-over-year in April from +6.70% year-over-year in March. Bank of Canada has maintained the wait-and-watch stance and decided to hold current policy rates at +2.25%. The situation in the middle east along with expected tense negotiations during the upcoming the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review on 1st July 2026 has added to the uncertain outlook for Canada. The Federal Reserve in the United States also maintained the wait-and-watch approach and held the policy rates at +3.75%. The uncertainty on duration of disruption in the middle east and the potential of prolonged energy shock to translate into sustained inflationary pressures has kept the market participants guessing on the policy rates outlook. The expectations of fixed-income market participants have changed dramatically over the course of the conflict. In the United States, the expectations have gone from two 25 basis-points rate cuts as on 27th February to no rate cut by the end of the year 2026; and in Canada, the expectations have gone from no rate cut on February 27th to two rate hikes by the end of the year 2026 (See Figure 1 and 2). Figure 1. Canada: Implied rate and # of hikes/cuts in Overnight Index Swaps Source: Bloomberg Figure 2: United States: Implied rate and # of hikes/cuts in Fed Funds Futures Source: Bloomberg The warring parties in the Middle East remain far apart in their list of demands and the stalemate has continued since the announcement of ceasefire. The blockade builds economic pressure on both sides – on Iran by impeding its ability to export crude oil and on the United States as economic pressures build on its allies and global economy along with political pressure domestically. Both sides are sticking to their demands and hoping that enough pressure builds on the other side to blink first. As both sides await the situation to move from stalemate to checkmate in their favor, the world economy’s fate also hangs in balance; in our view. The longer the stalemate continues in the middle east, the probability of higher inflation creeping up across the global economies increases. If shortages become acute, the net oil importing economies will likely get hit the hardest. Overall, we think the appetite for both sides to restart the violence appears low, which is a near-term positive for markets. Layering on the improving earnings growth story, the near-term set-up looks good for the North American equity markets, in our view. However, over the medium-term, investors need to watch out for the signs of deteriorating economic data that might bring in fresh bouts of volatility in the markets. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The North American markets witnessed tumultuous month of March as the war in middle east kept investors on the edge. The S&P 500 Index dropped about -7.80% and S&P TSX dropped about -8.80% from the start of war on February end to their respective troughs in late March before swiftly recovering almost entire losses by mid-April. While it is still early to say the hostilities between the warring parties are over, equity market investors are expecting a probable deal sometime soon as apparent from the market price action since the start of April. Apart from the whipsaw price action over the course of past few weeks, the investors also had to navigate the seesaw between narratives of major escalation to renewed hopes of a truce from day-to-day. US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7th and have held a round of negotiations in Pakistan, which yielded no results. United States and Israel continued to claim major victory and decimation of Iran’s leadership and military capabilities throughout the period, and yet Iran continued to successfully block the traffic through Strait of Hormuz and launch missiles on infrastructure of United States and Israels’ allies in the region. Given both sides have something they can claim as a victory at the current juncture, any further concessions would need to avoid the optics of an outcome that looks like a defeat, in our view. The element of chutzpah in demands from both sides could arguably make it difficult for the other side to accept without giving an appearance of an apparent defeat. Iran’s demands of seeking sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, charge ~$2 million transit fee per ship and complete withdrawal of US forces from the region could be a difficult concession for the United States to make and United States’ demand of complete cessation of Iran’s nuclear program appears like a difficult concession for Iran to make. Nevertheless, since both sides have shown restraint in the last few days and have shown willingness to hold further talks, the chances of coming to a common ground have increased. Markets have recovered on the prospects of a potential truce even though it remains on fragile grounds at present, in our opinion. We think the resilience of equity markets is underpinned by strong earnings growth expectations. As per Bloomberg data, the year-over-year earnings growth expectations for S&P 500 Index increased from ~+13.8% at the start of the year to ~+17.0%, and for S&P TSX Index increased from ~+16.0% to ~+22.0% at present. The improvement in earnings growth expectations is driven by Information Technology, Materials and Energy sectors on both sides of the border with highest growth expected in Information Technology sector in the S&P 500 Index (See Figure 1) and in Materials Sector in S&P TSX Index (See Figure 2).   Figure 1. S&P 500 Index - Earnings Growth Expectations by Sectors, year-over-year, %age Sept 14, 2025 to April 14, 2026 Source: Bloomberg Figure 2. S&P TSX Index - Earnings Growth Expectations by Sectors, year-over-year, %age Sept 14, 2025 to April 14, 2026 We think the balance of economic data has remained constructive for now, however, subject to the extent and duration of disruption in the middle east, it could begin to show signs of stress building in the economy in the coming months. In the United States, the headline Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased from +2.4% in February to +3.3% in March driven by higher gas prices, while core CPI increase was more modest at +2.6% in March +2.5% in February. The headline CPI in Canada was at +1.80% for February and is expected at +2.50% for March. The jump in the US core inflation is more modest as compared to the headline inflation as it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. While the higher energy prices have not translated into sustained core inflationary pressures yet, we think the crude oil prices are unlikely to swiftly fall back to pre-war levels given damage to energy infrastructure in the middle east and therefore core inflation might also start picking up in the coming months. Overall, we think the prospects of de-escalation in the middle east and improving earnings growth story of the North American corporates is a constructive backdrop for risk assets in the near-term. That said, should the economic data start to soften either due to a prolonged conflict or delayed spillover effects of disruption already caused, the markets might witness more episodes of volatility along the way. For now, we continue to advocate a pro-risk stance with an eye on the direction of conflict in the middle east and any potential softening of the incoming economic data. Source: Bloomberg   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The rise of the software sector saw its humble beginnings in the form of the simplest of programs, where the engineer would write a simple code which output “Hello, World!” onto the screen. Over time, Software Engineers have continued to build and write innovative codes that have helped to handle a multitude of tasks more efficiently. As the industry evolved, investors awarded the software companies with high valuation multiples given the nature of their business models which are light on assets, high on growth, and have higher returns on equity. Lately, with the advancements in Artificial Intelligence technology, the software industry has found itself in a tailspin. As AI technology can now write software codes quicker and with less errors; investors are fearing that the moats around the business models in the industry have started to erode and are closely scrutinizing the durability of several of these business models in the industry. As concerns mount, investors have indiscriminately rotated towards areas that are heavy on assets and low on obsolescence, a trend now popularly known as HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) trade amongst investors. As the software sector is navigating through a challenge of the new Halo World, which dominated most of trading during the month of February; sectors such as Energy, Materials, Real Estate and Consumer Staples have benefitted. Consequently, Energy and Materials sector heavy S&P TSX was in green by ~+7.7% during February as compared to the Technology sector heavy S&P 500 Index, which was down by -0.80% for the month. In addition to the Halo trade, rising geopolitical risk premium as tensions had continued to simmer between Iran and the United States during the month alongside growing arguments for depreciation in the US dollar also led to the appreciation in Gold and Crude Oil prices, further favoring the outperformance of Canadian markets. The last day of the month witnessed the United States launching a military operation on Iran with an aim to change the regime and destroy its nuclear and military capabilities. The immediate reaction was that of a spike in crude oil prices. Gold prices, which historically have served as a haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty also advanced initially, however, have been on a decline shortly after the initial gains. Historically, the impact of war on stock markets have been short lived and as soon as investors sniff an off-ramp and/or a diplomatic solution, the losses are swiftly reversed by markets. With about two weeks into the conflict and no sign of an off-ramp or a diplomatic solution yet, we think the markets are increasingly discounting the possibility of a few more weeks of disruption. The frequency of attacks from Iran had decreased, which could be due to running low on ammunition, destroyed military infrastructure for launches and/or perhaps a strategic play to use less ammunition and prolong the conflict. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the higher the economic cost on the rest of the world, and therefore pressure on the United States to find an off-ramp from the conflict. Given that approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil prices have jumped ~50% since the start of the conflict (See Figure. 1) owing to disruption in supply. A drawn-out never-ending war could mean the crude oil prices stay elevated and increase inflationary pressures in the global economy. This will complicate the tasks of the Central Banks which were beginning to become comfortable with somewhat still elevated but largely stable inflation rates. Bond yields have jumped on both sides of the border on expectations of more inflation in the coming months, which we think is part of the reason for appreciation in the US dollar index and therefore a decline in gold prices.   Figure. 1: Crude Oil, WTI Active Contract Source: Bloomberg   The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation of +2.3% in Canada for the month of January (reported in February), was below the expectations of +2.4%; and +2.4% in the United States for February (reported in March) was in line with expected +2.4%. However, these numbers are stale as they represent the prices before the start of war in the middle east and a spike in crude oil prices. The unemployment in Canada jumped to +6.7% in February from +6.5% in January and in the United States to +4.4% in February from +4.3% in January. Rising unemployment along with potentially increasing inflation suggests the chatter around stagflation and perhaps even a recession (if the war prolongs for longer) could increase in the coming months. That said, we think the Trump administration is not oblivious to this and would not like to approach mid-term elections with a spectre of stagflation or recession looming large. Overall, in our opinion, incentives exist on both sides to find an off-ramp from the current situation but will likely be sought only if they have something to show to their respective supporters back home. A de-escalation will lead to a swift recovery in the markets. We, therefore, maintain our constructive outlook for the year as we think that though the geopolitical developments and macro economic data provides a reason increase the caution, it does not point towards a need for change in stance yet. We think still positive corporate earnings amid the narratives of AI disruptions, fluctuating geopolitical risk premiums, and changing macro-economic environment bring about risks as well as pockets of new opportunities for now. Source: Bloomberg   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

North American equity markets started the year on a positive note with the S&P 500 Index up by ~+1.4% and S&P TSX Index by ~+0.70% for month of January. The returns on fixed-income assets were more muted for the month with aggregate fixed income indices in green by +0.11% in the United States and +0.54% in Canada. That said, the month was anything but uneventful. At the start of the year, the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela and captured the sitting president of the country, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife Cilia Flores, on charges of narco-terrorism. While we think the event had the potential to spook the investors; the market reaction was as uneventful as the resistance faced by United States military in Venezuela. The United States president claimed use of a new weapon “The Discombobulator”, which allegedly disabled the Venezuelan military equipment and rendered the military/security personnel incapacitated by causing confusion and disorientation. The event met with limited criticism from other countries, and it became clear very soon that the likelihood of this becoming a drawn-out conflict is very low. Consequently, capital market’s reaction was merely a shrug on the development. However, that was not the only discombobulation of the past few weeks. The price action witnessed for gold, silver, bitcoin and software sector could easily be classified as ones that had the potential to have similar kind impact on investors. Gold prices moved up by ~+25.41% during the month before crashing by ~-14% and silver prices jumped by ~+62.8% before crashing by ~-32.1%, during 29th January to 2nd February (See Figure 1). Bitcoin prices that had already seen a drawdown of ~-33% during October-November 2025, witnessed renewed selling pressure starting 29th January and is down by -25% as of 11th February (See Figure 2). The software sector has been under pressure since November last year and is facing fresh drawdown on concerns that developments in artificial intelligence tools will make the software sector obsolete (See Figure 3). In our previous updates, we alluded to the likelihood that in 2026 the markets will begin to discriminate between AI winners and AI Losers. Thus far, we note the selling in the software sector has been indiscriminate. After the dust settles, we think the recent price action will provide the opportunity to pick up quality assets on sale. Similarly, the fundamental arguments in favour of gold and silver prices to appreciate also remain intact. Figure 1: Gold and Silver (USD) Source: Bloomberg   Figure 2: Bitcoin (USD) Source: Bloomberg   Figure 3: The S&P North American Technology Software Index That said, we do not rule out the possibility of more dizzying price moves in pockets of markets as the year progresses. Overall net positive economic data and expected earnings growth of the corporates for the year makes a case for constructive outlook for the equity markets for 2026. However, layering on the potential for more geopolitical tensions and unexpected announcements from the United States as the mid-term elections approach; we now have an environment that is ripe for more potential discombobulation, in our view. For example - The CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico) trade deal is up for its first review by July 1 st and the news flow around US President’s threat to block opening of Gordie Howe International Bridge connecting Detroit to Windsor; and him considering withdrawing from the CUSMA deal has started to hit the tape. If the performance of Republicans in the recent special elections is any indicator where even traditionally red districts have shifted to blue, Democrats appear to have an upper hand in upcoming mid-term elections. The Trump administration is not oblivious to this, which explains somewhat softening up on its stance on immigration policies recently. As the elections approach, we can expect more announcements to appease the voting base and/or perhaps escalate tensions with international partners to deflect their attention from domestic issues. This should bring about more volatility, in our opinion. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve both decided to hold the policy rates at their current levels, +2.25% and +3.75%; respectively. Bank of Canada governing council said that United States’ actions have increased uncertainty and thus the central bank can not be sure if the next move is likely a hike or a cut. The US Federal Reserve said that the US economy has been stronger than expected and labour markets have shown signs of stabilization thereby allowing the central bank to move with caution on any future adjustments. The Fed chair also maintained that he remains confident that the Federal Reserve’s can maintain its independence. The US President announced his next Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, which also helped calm investors nerves on the topic of Fed’s independence. Kevin Warsh served as member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and is known for being a strong proponent of Fed’s independence. He also has the reputation of being a hawk, i.e., propensity to side with higher interest rates to control inflation. Though his recent comments suggest he prefers to see lower interest rates as he believes risks to inflation are on the downside. If inflation is contained, Kevin Warsh’s will find the job easy, however, if inflation starts to increase; he will likely find himself at odds with the US President’s wish to lower interest rates. We think the markets will have difficulty reading the likely move in such a scenario. We expect the markets will get more clarity on his approach once he assumes the position. Overall, we continue to see potential for more volatility during the year. Nevertheless, we note that market participation is broadening; economic data remains constructive and corporate earnings growth story is pointing towards another positive year. We think staying diversified to mitigate volatility and nimble to pick dislocated assets is the best way to navigate through any discombobulations that could hit the markets along the way. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The North American equity markets ended the last month of the year on a positive note despite several worries on investors’ minds. The concerns ranging from increasing geopolitical tensions, future profitability of companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure, to the policy rate trajectory amid still high inflation and a softening labour market weighed on investor sentiments for the most part in December. The ongoing uncertainty helped demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver which led the resources sector heavy on a S&P TSX index gain ~+2.2% in December. On the other hand, S&P 500 index initially dropped as investors rotated out from the growth-oriented index heavyweights towards value-oriented names; but later recovered owing to the typical seasonal year-end the ‘Santa Claus’ rally. Overall, the S&P 500 Index managed to eke out ~+0.6% total return for the month. The markets have started the year 2026 on a positive note so far despite several concerns largely remaining in place. The United States’ military operation in Venezuela to topple the Nicolas Maduro regime followed by United States’ coast guards seizing a Russian-flagged oil tanker after a chase across the Atlantic did not spook the investors as retaliatory response from either Venezuela or Russia was limited. That said, the comments from the Trump administration during the press conference after the capture of Nicolas Maduro on Cuba, Colombia and Greenland suggests that more such episodes with a potential to increase geo-political tensions during the year cannot be ruled out. Perhaps the most concerning development has been the subpoenas served to the United States’ Central Bank from the Department of Justice threatening a criminal indictment. The United States Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, issued a statement stating that the threat of criminal indictment has been driven by refusing to bow to President’s wishes to reduce interest rates. The Fed chair further added that this is about the Central Bank’s ability to continue to set policy rates based on economic conditions or directed by political pressure. Any concern around independence of the world’s most important Central Bank can spook the fixed income markets and send the yields higher. In this scenario, the Trump administration would have shot itself in the foot as instead of achieving reduced borrowing costs for the government by reducing interest rates they would have increased borrowing costs and the cascading effect of the same in real economy and financial markets. We think the Trump administration is not oblivious to this possibility and hence is likely to proceed with caution on this front. The President denied any involvement in directing Department of Justice towards this end. Further, the move also met with a criticism from many lawmakers with some even saying that they will block the Trump’s Fed nominees, thereby avoiding a knee-jerk reaction from markets, in our opinion. In addition to the above, we note the announcements such as a pledge to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to reduce the mortgage rates and a capping the interest rate charged by credit card companies to 10%. Given that have republicans have lost several elections recently, we think the above moves are aimed to appease the United States public with an eye on mid-term elections. If implemented, some of these decisions could change the attractiveness of some areas over the other at a short notice. Further, given the opposition, the uncertainty around actual implementation of such decisions remains high, in our view. We think markets have responded to the uncertainty by allocating towards pockets within the safe-haven assets with less ambiguity such as gold and silver in addition to rotating portion of investments towards relatively safer sectors such as consumer staples. Notwithstanding the uncertainty, the balance of incoming economic data continues to remain supportive of risk assets. As per the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, members are leaning towards one more rate cut during the year 2026, while as per the Fed Funds Futures, the markets are expecting two rate cuts before the year-end. No rate cuts are expected by either Bank of Canada or financial markets on this side of the border. The evidence of softening in the labour markets has kept the pressure off the central banks to increase interest rates even as inflation remains somewhat elevated. Overall, we think economic environment and policy rate trajectory remains supportive for the risk assets. However, given the nature of uncertainty, we continue to advocate for selectivity while staying diversified for a broad range of outcomes in such an environment. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

North American capital markets have been witnessing choppy markets since the beginning of November as investors moved from one concern to another in a short span of time. From worries around impact of extended government shutdown on the state of the economy to if the United States Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut on December 10 th , the date for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, to if the extent of capital expenditure done to build the artificial intelligence infrastructure will eventually yield results for companies have kept investors on toes. Any company taking on leverage to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has been punished. In addition, any company across the artificial intelligence value chain failing to even slightly meet the lofty investor expectations has been met with increasing scepticism in the recent weeks. We do not doubt the transformational power of the technology and think the value will become more apparent as the industry and technology matures over time and starts to showcase more use cases and productivity benefits. That said, we think the markets will begin to differentiate between artificial intelligence winners and losers in 2026. Given the major players put on this litmus test are also the heavy weights in the indices; the choppiness at the index level is more likely to continue, in our view. Further, the recent weeks have also seen rotation away from the heavy weights to the laggards in the index. The broadening of markets is generally a good sign for the bulls. That said, for the index laggards to continue to play catch-up they will also have to demonstrate earnings growth. Declining interest rates could help to bring the interest expenses down; however, the ability to pass on the tariffs will differentiate between companies’ ability to protect margins. Tariffs have largely stayed in place and thus far companies have largely decided to not pass on tariffs to customers in expectations of a resolution. Going forward, this is likely to change as many companies reach their limits to not pass on the tariffs. Even if the Supreme Court rules tariffs as illegal, the Trump administration will try to figure out other ways to collect levies. This will keep policy uncertainty elevated. Another dynamic keeping policy uncertainty elevated is guidance from the Central Banks. On the 10th of December, the Bank of Canada kept policy rates unchanged at 2.25% and guided to hold rates steady in line with market expectations. The United States Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis-points cut on December 10th,  also in line with expectations, however, market expectations witnessed unusually large variations from the 29th of October (the previous meeting and guidance date) to the 10 th  of December (See Figure 1) (from ~68.9% on October 29, 2025 to ~29.3% on November 19 th , 2025 and then back to 93.4% on 10 th  December 2025). In other words, the markets are anticipating higher policy uncertainty in the United States as relative to Canada. Figure 1:  %Cut implied by Fed Funds Futures (US) and Overnight Index Swaps (Canada) Source: Bloomberg Overall, we think selectivity will be the key to navigate the uncertain set-up of 2026. Leaning on the recent trends in markets, the ability of laggard companies to meet expectations of earnings growth and the ability of the companies in the artificial intelligence value chain to demonstrate tangible value amid the uncertain policy backdrop will differentiate between winners and losers in 2026, in our view.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

After ignoring the risks from the government shutdown for a long period, the North American capital markets finally appeared on a shaky ground after the United States’ government shutdown entered its longest run. Historically, the markets have largely ignored the government shutdowns as they typically get resolved before they begin to cause lasting damage to the economy. However, the current shutdown carrying on beyond the 35 days (previous record) put together with air travel disruptions reaching a critical stage and on top of disruption of several key economic data releases which investors and Fed officials rely on to take decisions added to investors angst during the past few weeks. While the extended government shutdown finally tested the investors patience, a few other concerns too have been building for a while. The chatter on whether Artificial Intelligence related stocks are in a bubble territory has been building for some time after their continued advance over the past few months. This was compounded by statements from leadership of a few banks, who during their third-quarter earnings releases said that they think a few areas of Artificial Intelligence related stocks have frothy valuations. We think high valuation alone can bring about some volatility; however, is not the reason enough to derail the bullish momentum in equities. As per Bloomberg data, the earnings-per-share for S&P 500 Index is expected to increase by ~+12.9% for the year 2026; while the earnings-per-share for the Bloomberg Artificial Intelligence Total Return Index is expected to increase by ~+23.9% for the year 2026. In other words, the relatively higher valuation of Artificial Intelligence companies has justification in their earnings story, in our opinion. We think the policy rates trajectory from the Central Banks remains a tailwind for capital markets and should continue to be constructive for the markets. The bond yields had been declining in anticipation of a policy rate cut for the most part during the month of October up until the announcement of a rate cut decisions on 29 th  October by the United States Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. On the decision date both the Central Banks cut policy rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada reduced the policy rate to +2.25% from +2.50% and the Federal Reserve reduced the policy rate to +4.00% from +4.25%. Despite getting the cuts as expected, the bond yields advanced after the announcement of rate cut decisions as both banks downplayed on the expectations of further rate cuts. Tiff Macklem, the governor of Bank of Canada, said that policy rates are low enough to stimulate the economy; while Jerome Powell, the chair of United States’ Federal Reserve, said that ‘further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion’. (See Figure 1) Figure 1: Bond yields advanced after rate decisions Source: Bloomberg Notwithstanding the hawkish tone, we note that the United States Federal Reserve will end the process of shrinking its Balance Sheet as on 1 st  December; and while the data remains scant; the evidence continues to point towards still weak labour market. Inflation has been creeping up for past few months; however, it is likely that Federal Reserve stays more tolerant of higher inflation to support the economic growth. Further, any resolution to reopen the government will alleviate any immediate concerns from investors. As of this writing, the US Senate had made progress towards ending the shutdown. We think the current balance of risks continues to point towards a constructive environment for the risk assets. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The month of September defied the expected seasonality of typically being a weak month of the year and both equity and fixed income asset classes witnessed positive performance for the month. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were in green by ~+4.25% and ~+4.92%; respectively, while the aggregate fixed income indices were up by ~+1.33% in the United States and ~+2.29% in Canada. The risk assets rallied in anticipation of the start of a policy rate cut cycle after a long pause on both sides of the border. The Central Banks did not disappoint investors as the Bank of Canada reduced the policy rate by 25 basis-points from +2.75% to +2.50% and the United States Federal Reserve also reduced the policy rate by 25 basis-points and brought the policy rate down from +4.50% to +4.25%. The expectations of the start of the rate cut cycle had been building after the United States’ Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, had indicated at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, that downside risks to employment are rising and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance. The unemployment rate in Canada has been persistently on a rise and has increased from +6.6% at the start of the year to +7.1% during the month of August (reported in September). Relatively, the unemployment rate in the United States has not increased at a similar pace and has increased from +4.0% at the start of the year to +4.3% during August (reported in September) (See Figure 1). However, it is noteworthy that the crackdown on the immigrant workers in the United States has complicated the proper measurement of the unemployment rate. As immigrant workers drop out of the work force, they do not form part of the calculation of labour force, and this conceals the true weakness in labour market. During the press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 17 th  of September; Jerome Powell acknowledged that the headline unemployment number perhaps does not indicate the true extent of labour weakness and though the inflation has not yet reached the desired target of +2.0%; the balance of risks have shifted to warrant policy rate adjustment. The Federal Reserve chair also said there is no risk-free path for the bank’s next moves as inflation is still elevated. Figure 1: Unemployment rate has been increasing steadily Source: Bloomberg We note that there is indeed ‘no easy path’ for the United States’ Federal Reserve as inflation and unemployment are not the only worries the country must face. Due to the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labour Statistics does not have the manpower to collect data and provide estimates of several key economic releases that feed into forming views of the members on Federal Reserve’s board. These include important datapoints such as non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and the consumer price index. The risk to the independence of Federal Reserve have been well discussed and risks spooking the fixed income investors at a time when yields are already high and the United States national debt is at an all time high of ~$37.8 trillion. Lisa Cook, a Fed board member, who has been targeted by the US President on accusations of mortgage fraud; has managed to get a stay on her firing until January. Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee to the Fed’s board after a member resigned, voted for a 50 basis points cut at the September meeting while the rest of members voted for 25 basis points. Investors are viewing the appointment of Stephen Miran on Fed’s board of governors as a step towards exerting greater influence of the White House on the US Federal Reserve’s decisions. Overall, the Federal Reserve appears to be facing challenges on many fronts. Nevertheless, we think the Central Banks cutting policy rates in a slowing but still growing economy put together with still robust earnings expectations for the year 2026 continue to bode well for the risk assets performance in the foreseeable future. We also think developments around Federal Reserve losing its independence, flaring up of geo-political tensions, companies’ guidance for the 2026 outlook during the third quarter earnings season; and/or resurgence of trade wars are the risks to be monitored in an increasingly volatile world. Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

After four consecutive positive months, stretched equity valuations and standing on the cusp of seasonally weak month of September, the chatter about the equity markets in North America has sounded understandably cautious in the recent weeks. Nevertheless, we think a few recent developments have made the case for continued positive performance of North American equities stronger. The fixed income markets on the other hand have been choppy throughout this year despite building expectations of start of rate cut cycle at some point during this year. Concerns around re-emergence of inflationary pressures and the United States’ Federal Reserve potentially loosing its independence have been on top of Investors mind, in our opinion. The United States’ President has been publicly mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for some time now. In a latest move to mount further pressure, the US President fired, Lisa Cook, who is on the Fed’s board to set policy rates. The accusations of mortgage fraud from the head of Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, was considered as reason enough for the US President to reach this decision. The Fed board member, Lisa Cook, however, has challenged the order and the case is now in courts. The fact that William Pulte, an appointee of the US President, has made similar accusations against his other political opponents has had investors see through this as a partisan move. This development followed shortly after accusations on Jerome Powell of lavishly spending to renovate Fed’s headquarters and calls from White House that the Fed chair should resign. Inserting political actors in Federal Reserve board could result in decisions that favour short term political goals rather than long term stability of economy. This risk is rising at a time when the US national debt is at all time high of ~USD 37 trillion (Debt-to-GDP ratio of ~128%), and is certain to spook fixed income investors, in our view. Not surprisingly, during August, the short-end of yield curve dropped and the long-end of the curve advanced resulting in steepening of the curve (See Figure 1). In other words, short-end reacted to rising expectations of potential interest rate cut in the short-term, while long-end expressed less confidence in the resolution of the current debt situation of the United States over long-term. Figure 1: United States yield curve steepened during August 2025 Source: Bloomberg We think Fed’s independence is a legitimate concern and developments around this are worth watching. We also note that the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, indicated in his prepared remarks for the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, that downside risks to employment are rising and shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance. Given that Jerome Powell had been fighting pressure from White House successfully throughout this year, we think the comments were made on legitimate concerns around economic developments rather than due to political pressure. Several economic data points on labour market during the first week of September indicated softening of labour market and justified the opinion expressed by the United States’ Fed chair, Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole Speech. As per Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Jobs Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, the Job openings for the month of July (reported in September) were at 7181k, lower-than-expected number of 7380k, while the layoffs were at 1808k, higher-than-expected number of 1639k. The ADP data on US private sector hiring indicated that private jobs increased by 54k in August, lower-than-expected number of 68k and were down from 106k jobs added during the month of July. For the Month of August, the Bureau of Labour Statistics data on nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls was at 22k and 38k, respectively; lower-than-expected number of 75k for both. Also, the unemployment rate increased from +4.2% in July to +4.3% in August in the United States and from +6.90% to +7.10% in Canada. With the labour market showing signs of cooling, the central banks on both sides of the border are expected to cut interest rates in their upcoming respective meetings on 17 September. Higher inflation numbers could dent expectations of rate cuts for some market participants and could also become an excuse for markets to shed some of the recent gains. However, we think any sell-off in markets should be taken as an opportunity to add positions. Given the likelihood of economy to run hot, i.e., higher growth and higher inflation; we think investors will better be placed to beat the inflation by staying invested in risk assets rather than sit on side-lines. Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Bloomberg   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

North American capital markets witnessed continued optimism from the equity investors on the back of progress on the trade talks while the skepticism of fixed income investors was visible in the choppy price action during the month of June. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were both in green for the month while aggregate fixed income index was flat in Canada and green in the United States. The change in tone of the Trump administration from escalating rhetoric on tariffs to telegraphing that several deals with trading partners are underway with good progress being made in discussions helped alleviate the concerns in equities markets. The reports of softer economic data in the United States led to an increase in expectations of policy rates cuts sooner than later despite the continued caution in the tone of the Federal Reserve bank. The bond yields in the United States dropped by ~16-to-17 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures of the yield curve (see Figure 1). On the other hand, the bond yields in Canada advanced by ~0-to-8 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures on the yield curve (see Figure 2). Figure 2: Canada Sovereign Curve We think the biggest relief the markets received during the month was the progress made on the trade talks, especially with China. Early on during the month, the news flow of constructive trade talks with China led to a restart of rare earth minerals exports to the United States, and eventually, an announcement that an understanding has been reached with China on the trade framework lifted market sentiment, in our opinion. In early July, United States also eased restrictions on export of chip design software to China. The optimism around trade was more than sufficient for equity markets to shrug off the risks from escalating tensions in the middle east and continued caution cited by the central banks. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both decided to keep policy rates at +4.50% and 2.75%; respectively. The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, stated that there is too much uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on inflation and unemployment rate; however, given that the economic data is benign for now, the Fed can afford to wait before making any decisions. The Bank of Canada’s governor, Tiff Macklem, also stated uncertainty around the United States trade policy in the backdrop of a somewhat softer economy and a firming up of inflation as reasons for the decision to stay put. The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ was signed into law on July 4th, 2025. As per the latest estimates of the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is expected to reduce expenditures by ~$1.2 trillion and reduce revenues by ~$4.4 trillion with a net effect of adding a deficit of ~$3.2 trillion over a period of next 10 years (2025-2034). The combination of higher interest rates along with increasing debt does not paint a good picture for United States’ fiscal situation. The United States’ President, Donald J. Trump, has been openly expressing his displeasure of the higher interest rates and criticizing the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for holding the interest rates high for too long. The attacks add to the jitters of fixed income investors as they question what might be the consequence of Federal Reserve losing its independence when the United States’ fiscal situation and trajectory is not looking pretty. Nevertheless, we also note that the messaging from the Trump administration has changed to that they have realized the path of growing the economy out of debt burden is perhaps a more reasonable way rather than expenditure cuts, which will impact economic growth adversely. Looking ahead, we think incremental softening of economic data in North America will increase the pressure on central banks to ease the monetary policy and therefore supportive of markets. If inflation remains under control, the case for central banks to keep policy rates on pause will get weaker. We also think the market volatility driven by erratic nature of policy making from Trump administration will remain elevated. However, provided that no substantially damaging policy is announced and implemented, markets should adapt and refocus on economic fundamentals. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As we cross the halfway mark of 2025, now is the perfect time for a financial check-up. It is a great idea to review the goals you set for yourself – whether it be saving, paying down debt, or finalizing your budget. Here are some things to consider:   1. Review your Financial Goals   Start by revisiting the goals you set at the beginning of the year. Think about the following: Saving a specific amount (e.g., emergency fund, down payment, etc.) Reducing debt (credit cards, student loans, mortgage, etc.) Investing for retirement or other long-term objectives Increasing income or side hustles Creating a budget and sticking to it   Ask yourself: Have I made any progress? Are these goals still realistic? Do I need to adjust my timelines?   2. Assess your Expenses   Compare your actual spending to your budget for the first half of the year.   Key questions: Are there items you consistently overspend on? Have any new expenses emerged? Can you cut back in certain areas to reallocate funds to your goals?   If your budget has drifted, now’s the time to make thoughtful adjustments.   3. Check on your Debt Reduction Progress   If paying down debt was a priority this year, check how much you have paid off and how much remains. Consider: Your current debt balances and interest rates Progress towards your payoff goals (e.g., “Debt-Free by 2026”) Whether you can increase payments in the second half of the year   You might also consider refinancing or consolidating debt if interest rates have shifted in your favour.   5. Review Investments and Retirement Accounts   Markets fluctuate, and so should your investment strategy — within reason. It’s important to have a sense of the types of investments you hold and if there may be better options for you. Your Financial Advisor can help ensure you are invested properly for your goals and risk tolerance.    6. What about Emergencies?   Ideally, have 3 to 6 months of expenses set aside. If you're not there yet, determine a realistic monthly savings goal to build up our emergency fund by year-end.   7. Plan for the Rest of 2025   Use what you’ve learned to refine your roadmap. Some steps might include: Setting a “no-spend” month to curb habits. Adjusting automatic savings or debt payments Scheduling a meeting with your Financial Advisor   Consider upcoming expenses like summer vacations or even Christmas, though it seems like a long time away. It’s vital to get ahead and plan for bigger expenses like these.   A mid-year financial check-in isn't just a good habit — it’s a powerful strategy for success. Small changes made today can significantly impact your financial well-being by the end of the year and beyond.    Allison Martin is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of April proved to be a roller coaster for investors around the globe. The markets were jolted as Trump administration unveiled his Reciprocal Tariff plans. If implemented as indicated, the plans implied that supply chains would choke, inflation would rise due to supply shortages; and economic growth would suffer as high uncertainty would force corporates to postpone capital expenditure decisions and households to curtail discretionary spending. Mr. Market immediately gave a thumbs down to the Trump administration’s announcements and the probability increased that a high volatility in capital markets could even lead to a systemic event. We believe the reaction from Mr. Market led the Trump Administration to re-think their plan. After going back-and-forth on the tariffs policy several times during the month, it now appears that there is an overall gradual de-escalation of the rhetoric on trade war. The soft economic data points such as consumer confidence, investor sentiment, inflationary expectations, and CEO confidence all showed a decline. The hard data such as unemployment, inflation, and retail sales have held up well. The divergence suggests that the impact of the tariffs policy is yet to be seen on the real economy. The good news is that the Trump administration is dialing back its hawkish stance and back peddling on many of the announced tariffs. The bad news is that a baseline 10% tariff on most goods is still in place, which is still high by historical measures. In addition, the adverse impact of policy uncertainty on the real economy is yet to become apparent, i.e. the hard economic data could also show softness in the coming months, in our view. In the short-term, we think risk assets are likely to welcome the developments as the outlook relatively improves from worse to less bad. In the medium-term, we think risk assets will have to discount the reality of the economic impact as it becomes apparent in the coming months. It is likely that inflation shows an uptick, and that unemployment also rises while economic growth slows. The ‘stagflationary’ environment will complicate the task of the U.S. Federal Reserve as its dual mandate (low inflation and low unemployment) could be at odds with each other. In such a scenario, lowering interest rates to support the softening economy (and thus help decrease unemployment) could further add to inflationary pressures. After its latest (Federal Open Market Committee) FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to hold policy rates steady at +4.50%. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, mentioned that it is likely that the Fed might face rising inflation and rising unemployment rates due to the tariffs and that the Fed would prefer to see how it plays out before deciding on policy rates. The Bank of Canada also decided to hold rates steady at +2.75% given the tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think the labor market data will be closely watched for any signs of deterioration in the real economy. If inflation rises due to the supply shock, the policy rates will be less effective in combating the same, in our view. If unemployment rises as economic growth slows, we think the Federal Reserve will not have a very strong argument to hold interest rates steady - even in face of higher inflation. Policy support should keep the overall investor sentiment constructive even if the economy witnesses some hiccups in the interim. Barring any further escalations on the trade war, we think the risk-on market sentiment is likely to prevail until hard economic data shows any signs of softness. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.