Proudly serving our communities for over 29 years!
Search Results
198 results found with an empty search
Blog Posts (178)
- Stalemate to Checkmate?
North American markets witnessed historical recovery with the S&P 500 Index advancing by ~+9.6% and S&P TSX Index by ~+3.0% in April. While the ceasefire announced on April 7th ignited investor enthusiasm on hopes of a truce between the United States, Israel and Iran; the positive momentum was accentuated by the first-quarter earnings season starting in late April. As of this writing, nearly 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported first calendar-quarter earnings; where approximately 83.56% have delivered better-than-expected earnings and approximately 73.56% have delivered better-than-expected revenues. For context, during the prior earnings season these figures were +74.95% for positive earnings surprise and +64.33% for positive revenues surprise. The positive momentum is also visible in earnings growth estimates of S&P 500 Index and S&P TSX Index. As per Bloomberg data, for the year 2026, the earnings-per-share growth for S&P 500 Index has increased from +13.8% at the turn of the year to +21.7% and for S&P TSX Index has increased from +16.0% to +25.6%, as of this writing. Improving earnings growth momentum put together with reduction in geopolitical risk premium led to the whipsaw in North American equity markets during the last two months. Equity markets generally do well in an environment where earnings are growing and economic data is supportive. The headline inflation in the United States jumped from +2.4% year-over-year in February to +3.8% year-over-year in April. The jump was driven by prices in energy, energy commodities, and airfares. The core inflation, which excludes the impact of food and energy, also jumped from +2.5% year-over-year in February to +2.8% year-over-year in April however, the jump can be largely attributed to statistical adjustments made by Bureau of Labor Statistics. While an argument can be made inflationary pressures are yet to show up in core inflation and hence less worrisome, we think more datapoints persistently pointing to risks of higher inflation in the future will force investors to take notice at some point. The headline Producers Price Index in the United States for the month of April jumped to +6.0% year-over-year from +4.0% year-over-year in March and was ahead of expected +4.8% year-over-year. In Canada, the headline inflation increased to +2.4% year-over-year in March from +1.8% year-over-year in February and unemployment inched up to +6.9% year-over-year in April from +6.70% year-over-year in March. Bank of Canada has maintained the wait-and-watch stance and decided to hold current policy rates at +2.25%. The situation in the middle east along with expected tense negotiations during the upcoming the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review on 1st July 2026 has added to the uncertain outlook for Canada. The Federal Reserve in the United States also maintained the wait-and-watch approach and held the policy rates at +3.75%. The uncertainty on duration of disruption in the middle east and the potential of prolonged energy shock to translate into sustained inflationary pressures has kept the market participants guessing on the policy rates outlook. The expectations of fixed-income market participants have changed dramatically over the course of the conflict. In the United States, the expectations have gone from two 25 basis-points rate cuts as on 27th February to no rate cut by the end of the year 2026; and in Canada, the expectations have gone from no rate cut on February 27th to two rate hikes by the end of the year 2026 (See Figure 1 and 2). Figure 1. Canada: Implied rate and # of hikes/cuts in Overnight Index Swaps Source: Bloomberg Figure 2: United States: Implied rate and # of hikes/cuts in Fed Funds Futures Source: Bloomberg The warring parties in the Middle East remain far apart in their list of demands and the stalemate has continued since the announcement of ceasefire. The blockade builds economic pressure on both sides – on Iran by impeding its ability to export crude oil and on the United States as economic pressures build on its allies and global economy along with political pressure domestically. Both sides are sticking to their demands and hoping that enough pressure builds on the other side to blink first. As both sides await the situation to move from stalemate to checkmate in their favor, the world economy’s fate also hangs in balance; in our view. The longer the stalemate continues in the middle east, the probability of higher inflation creeping up across the global economies increases. If shortages become acute, the net oil importing economies will likely get hit the hardest. Overall, we think the appetite for both sides to restart the violence appears low, which is a near-term positive for markets. Layering on the improving earnings growth story, the near-term set-up looks good for the North American equity markets, in our view. However, over the medium-term, investors need to watch out for the signs of deteriorating economic data that might bring in fresh bouts of volatility in the markets. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc
- Chutzpah, Whipsaw, Seesaw!
The North American markets witnessed tumultuous month of March as the war in middle east kept investors on the edge. The S&P 500 Index dropped about -7.80% and S&P TSX dropped about -8.80% from the start of war on February end to their respective troughs in late March before swiftly recovering almost entire losses by mid-April. While it is still early to say the hostilities between the warring parties are over, equity market investors are expecting a probable deal sometime soon as apparent from the market price action since the start of April. Apart from the whipsaw price action over the course of past few weeks, the investors also had to navigate the seesaw between narratives of major escalation to renewed hopes of a truce from day-to-day. US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7th and have held a round of negotiations in Pakistan, which yielded no results. United States and Israel continued to claim major victory and decimation of Iran’s leadership and military capabilities throughout the period, and yet Iran continued to successfully block the traffic through Strait of Hormuz and launch missiles on infrastructure of United States and Israels’ allies in the region. Given both sides have something they can claim as a victory at the current juncture, any further concessions would need to avoid the optics of an outcome that looks like a defeat, in our view. The element of chutzpah in demands from both sides could arguably make it difficult for the other side to accept without giving an appearance of an apparent defeat. Iran’s demands of seeking sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, charge ~$2 million transit fee per ship and complete withdrawal of US forces from the region could be a difficult concession for the United States to make and United States’ demand of complete cessation of Iran’s nuclear program appears like a difficult concession for Iran to make. Nevertheless, since both sides have shown restraint in the last few days and have shown willingness to hold further talks, the chances of coming to a common ground have increased. Markets have recovered on the prospects of a potential truce even though it remains on fragile grounds at present, in our opinion. We think the resilience of equity markets is underpinned by strong earnings growth expectations. As per Bloomberg data, the year-over-year earnings growth expectations for S&P 500 Index increased from ~+13.8% at the start of the year to ~+17.0%, and for S&P TSX Index increased from ~+16.0% to ~+22.0% at present. The improvement in earnings growth expectations is driven by Information Technology, Materials and Energy sectors on both sides of the border with highest growth expected in Information Technology sector in the S&P 500 Index (See Figure 1) and in Materials Sector in S&P TSX Index (See Figure 2). Figure 1. S&P 500 Index - Earnings Growth Expectations by Sectors, year-over-year, %age Sept 14, 2025 to April 14, 2026 Source: Bloomberg Figure 2. S&P TSX Index - Earnings Growth Expectations by Sectors, year-over-year, %age Sept 14, 2025 to April 14, 2026 We think the balance of economic data has remained constructive for now, however, subject to the extent and duration of disruption in the middle east, it could begin to show signs of stress building in the economy in the coming months. In the United States, the headline Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased from +2.4% in February to +3.3% in March driven by higher gas prices, while core CPI increase was more modest at +2.6% in March +2.5% in February. The headline CPI in Canada was at +1.80% for February and is expected at +2.50% for March. The jump in the US core inflation is more modest as compared to the headline inflation as it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. While the higher energy prices have not translated into sustained core inflationary pressures yet, we think the crude oil prices are unlikely to swiftly fall back to pre-war levels given damage to energy infrastructure in the middle east and therefore core inflation might also start picking up in the coming months. Overall, we think the prospects of de-escalation in the middle east and improving earnings growth story of the North American corporates is a constructive backdrop for risk assets in the near-term. That said, should the economic data start to soften either due to a prolonged conflict or delayed spillover effects of disruption already caused, the markets might witness more episodes of volatility along the way. For now, we continue to advocate a pro-risk stance with an eye on the direction of conflict in the middle east and any potential softening of the incoming economic data. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc
- Halo, World!
The rise of the software sector saw its humble beginnings in the form of the simplest of programs, where the engineer would write a simple code which output “Hello, World!” onto the screen. Over time, Software Engineers have continued to build and write innovative codes that have helped to handle a multitude of tasks more efficiently. As the industry evolved, investors awarded the software companies with high valuation multiples given the nature of their business models which are light on assets, high on growth, and have higher returns on equity. Lately, with the advancements in Artificial Intelligence technology, the software industry has found itself in a tailspin. As AI technology can now write software codes quicker and with less errors; investors are fearing that the moats around the business models in the industry have started to erode and are closely scrutinizing the durability of several of these business models in the industry. As concerns mount, investors have indiscriminately rotated towards areas that are heavy on assets and low on obsolescence, a trend now popularly known as HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) trade amongst investors. As the software sector is navigating through a challenge of the new Halo World, which dominated most of trading during the month of February; sectors such as Energy, Materials, Real Estate and Consumer Staples have benefitted. Consequently, Energy and Materials sector heavy S&P TSX was in green by ~+7.7% during February as compared to the Technology sector heavy S&P 500 Index, which was down by -0.80% for the month. In addition to the Halo trade, rising geopolitical risk premium as tensions had continued to simmer between Iran and the United States during the month alongside growing arguments for depreciation in the US dollar also led to the appreciation in Gold and Crude Oil prices, further favoring the outperformance of Canadian markets. The last day of the month witnessed the United States launching a military operation on Iran with an aim to change the regime and destroy its nuclear and military capabilities. The immediate reaction was that of a spike in crude oil prices. Gold prices, which historically have served as a haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty also advanced initially, however, have been on a decline shortly after the initial gains. Historically, the impact of war on stock markets have been short lived and as soon as investors sniff an off-ramp and/or a diplomatic solution, the losses are swiftly reversed by markets. With about two weeks into the conflict and no sign of an off-ramp or a diplomatic solution yet, we think the markets are increasingly discounting the possibility of a few more weeks of disruption. The frequency of attacks from Iran had decreased, which could be due to running low on ammunition, destroyed military infrastructure for launches and/or perhaps a strategic play to use less ammunition and prolong the conflict. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the higher the economic cost on the rest of the world, and therefore pressure on the United States to find an off-ramp from the conflict. Given that approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil prices have jumped ~50% since the start of the conflict (See Figure. 1) owing to disruption in supply. A drawn-out never-ending war could mean the crude oil prices stay elevated and increase inflationary pressures in the global economy. This will complicate the tasks of the Central Banks which were beginning to become comfortable with somewhat still elevated but largely stable inflation rates. Bond yields have jumped on both sides of the border on expectations of more inflation in the coming months, which we think is part of the reason for appreciation in the US dollar index and therefore a decline in gold prices. Figure. 1: Crude Oil, WTI Active Contract Source: Bloomberg The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation of +2.3% in Canada for the month of January (reported in February), was below the expectations of +2.4%; and +2.4% in the United States for February (reported in March) was in line with expected +2.4%. However, these numbers are stale as they represent the prices before the start of war in the middle east and a spike in crude oil prices. The unemployment in Canada jumped to +6.7% in February from +6.5% in January and in the United States to +4.4% in February from +4.3% in January. Rising unemployment along with potentially increasing inflation suggests the chatter around stagflation and perhaps even a recession (if the war prolongs for longer) could increase in the coming months. That said, we think the Trump administration is not oblivious to this and would not like to approach mid-term elections with a spectre of stagflation or recession looming large. Overall, in our opinion, incentives exist on both sides to find an off-ramp from the current situation but will likely be sought only if they have something to show to their respective supporters back home. A de-escalation will lead to a swift recovery in the markets. We, therefore, maintain our constructive outlook for the year as we think that though the geopolitical developments and macro economic data provides a reason increase the caution, it does not point towards a need for change in stance yet. We think still positive corporate earnings amid the narratives of AI disruptions, fluctuating geopolitical risk premiums, and changing macro-economic environment bring about risks as well as pockets of new opportunities for now. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc
Other Pages (20)
- Event Registration
Event Registration Form HOME SERVICES ADVANTAGE COMMUNITY RESOURCES ABOUT US More CONNECT WITH US < BACK Event Registration This event is now over. Please visit our Community page to see other upcoming events! *Mortgage products and services are provided by Assante Capital Management Ltd. through its strategic partnership with Bank of Montreal. We collaborate with you and each other to deliver unbiased advice that meets your personal and business needs. Important Disclosures Assante Capital Management Ltd. (“ACM”) is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. Know your Advisor: IIROC Advisor Report Assante Financial Management Ltd. (“AFM”) is a member of the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada (“MFDA”) and MFDA Investor Protection Corporation. www.mfda.ca Stocks, bonds and mutual funds are provided through ACM. Mutual fund products are provided through AFM. Only those services offered through ACM are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, and only those services offered through AFM are covered by the MFDA Investor Protection Corporation. For more information please visit http://www.assante.com/legal or contact our office for clarification. To research the background, qualifications and disciplinary information on advisors at IIROC regulated firms please generate an IIROC Advisor Report. Employee benefits and pension consulting services, Mortgage lending services, and insurance products and services are provided through O’Farrell Financial Services Inc. (“OFSI”). OFSI is an independent company unrelated to ACM and AFM. For further Assante Wealth Management important legal and compliance disclosure, please visit www.assante.com/legal For more information on our privacy policy, please visit http://www.assante.com/privacy-policy www.cipf.ca https://www.iiroc.ca/ © 2023 | All Rights Reserved
- Webinar Registeration - Intergenerational Estate Planning Steps, Tools & Strategy!
Event Registration Form < Back This event is now over. Please visit our Community page to see other upcoming events! INTERGENERATIONAL ESTATE PLANNING Steps, Tools & Strategy! Over the next 10 years, $750 Billion is estimated to be transferred in Canada from Boomers to their descendants. In this webinar you will learn some of the most important strategies that can help you reduce taxation and give you piece of mind that your affairs will be taken care of correctly. You will learn the 5 Effective Steps to estate planning, including how to set goals, and how to identify the right executor or guardian(s) for minor children. Join us for this information packed webinar co hosted by Daren Givoque, Financial Advisor at O'Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning, and Jacqueline Power, Assistant Vice-President, Tax and Estate Planning Mackenzie Investments. RSVP WEBINAR First Name Last Name Email Phone By checking this box you agree to allow us to contact you regarding the webinar. Should you wish to discontinue, you may contact us to withdraw your consent at any time. Your personal information will not be distributed, sold, or traded – it will remain strictly confidential and will only be used for the purpose for which it was provided. For more information on Assante’s commitment to privacy and responsible use of information, please visit www.assante.com/privacy-policy Submit Thanks for submitting! Sorry! Registration for this event is closed.
- ABOUT US | O'Farrell Wealth
O'Farrell has been in business for over 25 years, providing wealth and estate planning services to clients throughout Eastern Ontario. HOME SERVICES ADVANTAGE COMMUNITY RESOURCES ABOUT US More CONNECT WITH US Our Team We are proud of our dedicated Team members who provide top-tier services with professionalism every day. Dermid O'Farrell Operations CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Daren Givoque, CDFA Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Peggy Mathieson Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Connie Heffernan Administrative Associate to Keeley Patterson CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Amanda Pratt Administrative Associate to Matthew Felker CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Erika Abraham Administrative Associate to Peggy Mathieson CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Matthew Felker, EPC Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Vipul Arora, CFA Portfolio Manager CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Cole Seabrook Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Haley Hopkins Administrative Associate to Daren Givoque & Cole Seabrook CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Scott Prince Investment Funds Associate CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Keeley Patterson, CFP® Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Sarah Chisholm Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Christine Aubin Senior Manager CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Jenna Piché Administrative Associate to Daren Givoque & Cole Seabrook CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Brenda Mayhew Administrative Associate to Cyndy Batchelor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Cynthia Batchelor Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Allison Martin Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Kieran Beavis Investment Funds Associate CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Jennifer Shaddick Administrative Associate to Sarah Chisholm CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Abram Gleason Administrative Associate to Daren Givoque & Cole Seabrook CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The O'Farrell Story Most businesses have a story behind them, and O’Farrell is no different. In 1997, Dermid and Donna Lee O’Farrell founded the company with a belief that when relationships are strong, people will have the confidence to act on their plans. Recognizing that financial planning would be deeply valuable to the people in their community and surrounding area, they set out to build a company that would provide clients with an experience of quality advice, professional discipline, and compassion; something that their clients could believe in, something they can trust. From the beginning, the company has grown steadily each year and has proven that their belief was one that was shared by their clients. While it was not without its challenges and hardships, Dermid and Donna Lee put in the tough work that is required to build any meaningful business. Now, as the company celebrates its’ 28th year in business, they have attracted a Team that shares their commitment to relationship and their desire to help clients plan for their financial future. O'Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning We are regionally located across Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley to serve you. O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning 40 Brock Street, Brockville, ON 613.865.8080 O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning 108 Second Street East, Unit 103, Cornwall, ON 613.935.6254 O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning 292 County Road 44, Kemptville, ON 613.258.1997 O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning 1035 O’Brien Road, Unit 14, Renfrew, ON 343.361.0212 O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning 510 St. Lawrence Street, P.O. Box 518, Winchester, ON 613.774.2456 O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning 613.258.1997 Toll-free: 877.989.1997 Fax: 613.774.0371 Monday - Friday 8:30 AM - 4:30 PM ofarrell@assante.com We have five locations in Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley to serve you. By providing your email address, you provide O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning with your express consent to receive Commercial Electronic Messages related to finances and/or investments that may be of interest to you. If you no longer want to receive emails of this nature, you can withdraw your consent at any time by contacting ofarrell@assante.com Name Phone Number City / Town Email Address Prefered Method of Contact Reason for Contacting Us Preferred Office Location Who would you like to connect with? SEND CONTACT REQUEST Thanks for submitting! Keeley & Connie are truly the ‘dynamic duo’. They are highly knowledgeable in their investment strategies, completely professional in their service and sensitive in explaining risk factors and recommending alternative investment options. Regular update meetings throughout the year provide that much needed level of comfort and confidence. Our move to O’Farrell has proven to be the right one and we recommend O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning to our family & friends. Anne & Robert Fraser Connect with a Team member today and get focused on your future. Contact the O’Farrell Team to start planning a growth strategy for your wealth that you can preserve and pass on. BOOK YOUR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS NOW Meet with an O'Farrell Advisor at one of our five office locations. Feel free to contact us toll-free: 1-877-989-1997 BROCKVILLE 613.865.8080 40 Brock Street, Brockville ON CORNWALL 613.935.6254 108 Second Street East Unit 103 Cornwall ON KEMPTVILLE 613.258.1997 292 County Road 44 Kemptville ON RENFREW 343.361.0212 1035 O'Brien Road Unit 14 Renfrew ON WINCHESTER 613.774.2456 510 St. Lawrence Street P.O. Box 518 Winchester ON *Mortgage products and services are provided by CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. through its strategic partnership with Bank of Montreal. We collaborate with you and each other to deliver unbiased advice that meets your personal and business needs. Important Disclosures CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc Know Your Advisor: Advisor Report | Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (ciro.ca) For further Assante Wealth Management important legal and compliance disclosure, please visit www.assante.com/legal For more information on our privacy policy, please visit http://www.assante.com/privacy-policy © 2026 | All Rights Reserved



