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  • Decoding Discombobulations

    North American equity markets started the year on a positive note with the S&P 500 Index up by ~+1.4% and S&P TSX Index by ~+0.70% for month of January. The returns on fixed-income assets were more muted for the month with aggregate fixed income indices in green by +0.11% in the United States and +0.54% in Canada. That said, the month was anything but uneventful. At the start of the year, the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela and captured the sitting president of the country, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife Cilia Flores, on charges of narco-terrorism. While we think the event had the potential to spook the investors; the market reaction was as uneventful as the resistance faced by United States military in Venezuela. The United States president claimed use of a new weapon “The Discombobulator”, which allegedly disabled the Venezuelan military equipment and rendered the military/security personnel incapacitated by causing confusion and disorientation. The event met with limited criticism from other countries, and it became clear very soon that the likelihood of this becoming a drawn-out conflict is very low. Consequently, capital market’s reaction was merely a shrug on the development. However, that was not the only discombobulation of the past few weeks. The price action witnessed for gold, silver, bitcoin and software sector could easily be classified as ones that had the potential to have similar kind impact on investors. Gold prices moved up by ~+25.41% during the month before crashing by ~-14% and silver prices jumped by ~+62.8% before crashing by ~-32.1%, during 29th January to 2nd February (See Figure 1). Bitcoin prices that had already seen a drawdown of ~-33% during October-November 2025, witnessed renewed selling pressure starting 29th January and is down by -25% as of 11th February (See Figure 2). The software sector has been under pressure since November last year and is facing fresh drawdown on concerns that developments in artificial intelligence tools will make the software sector obsolete (See Figure 3). In our previous updates, we alluded to the likelihood that in 2026 the markets will begin to discriminate between AI winners and AI Losers. Thus far, we note the selling in the software sector has been indiscriminate. After the dust settles, we think the recent price action will provide the opportunity to pick up quality assets on sale. Similarly, the fundamental arguments in favour of gold and silver prices to appreciate also remain intact. Figure 1: Gold and Silver (USD) Source: Bloomberg   Figure 2: Bitcoin (USD) Source: Bloomberg   Figure 3: The S&P North American Technology Software Index That said, we do not rule out the possibility of more dizzying price moves in pockets of markets as the year progresses. Overall net positive economic data and expected earnings growth of the corporates for the year makes a case for constructive outlook for the equity markets for 2026. However, layering on the potential for more geopolitical tensions and unexpected announcements from the United States as the mid-term elections approach; we now have an environment that is ripe for more potential discombobulation, in our view. For example - The CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico) trade deal is up for its first review by July 1 st and the news flow around US President’s threat to block opening of Gordie Howe International Bridge connecting Detroit to Windsor; and him considering withdrawing from the CUSMA deal has started to hit the tape. If the performance of Republicans in the recent special elections is any indicator where even traditionally red districts have shifted to blue, Democrats appear to have an upper hand in upcoming mid-term elections. The Trump administration is not oblivious to this, which explains somewhat softening up on its stance on immigration policies recently. As the elections approach, we can expect more announcements to appease the voting base and/or perhaps escalate tensions with international partners to deflect their attention from domestic issues. This should bring about more volatility, in our opinion. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve both decided to hold the policy rates at their current levels, +2.25% and +3.75%; respectively. Bank of Canada governing council said that United States’ actions have increased uncertainty and thus the central bank can not be sure if the next move is likely a hike or a cut. The US Federal Reserve said that the US economy has been stronger than expected and labour markets have shown signs of stabilization thereby allowing the central bank to move with caution on any future adjustments. The Fed chair also maintained that he remains confident that the Federal Reserve’s can maintain its independence. The US President announced his next Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, which also helped calm investors nerves on the topic of Fed’s independence. Kevin Warsh served as member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and is known for being a strong proponent of Fed’s independence. He also has the reputation of being a hawk, i.e., propensity to side with higher interest rates to control inflation. Though his recent comments suggest he prefers to see lower interest rates as he believes risks to inflation are on the downside. If inflation is contained, Kevin Warsh’s will find the job easy, however, if inflation starts to increase; he will likely find himself at odds with the US President’s wish to lower interest rates. We think the markets will have difficulty reading the likely move in such a scenario. We expect the markets will get more clarity on his approach once he assumes the position. Overall, we continue to see potential for more volatility during the year. Nevertheless, we note that market participation is broadening; economic data remains constructive and corporate earnings growth story is pointing towards another positive year. We think staying diversified to mitigate volatility and nimble to pick dislocated assets is the best way to navigate through any discombobulations that could hit the markets along the way. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

  • Climbing The Wall of Worry

    The North American equity markets ended the last month of the year on a positive note despite several worries on investors’ minds. The concerns ranging from increasing geopolitical tensions, future profitability of companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure, to the policy rate trajectory amid still high inflation and a softening labour market weighed on investor sentiments for the most part in December. The ongoing uncertainty helped demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver which led the resources sector heavy on a S&P TSX index gain ~+2.2% in December. On the other hand, S&P 500 index initially dropped as investors rotated out from the growth-oriented index heavyweights towards value-oriented names; but later recovered owing to the typical seasonal year-end the ‘Santa Claus’ rally. Overall, the S&P 500 Index managed to eke out ~+0.6% total return for the month. The markets have started the year 2026 on a positive note so far despite several concerns largely remaining in place. The United States’ military operation in Venezuela to topple the Nicolas Maduro regime followed by United States’ coast guards seizing a Russian-flagged oil tanker after a chase across the Atlantic did not spook the investors as retaliatory response from either Venezuela or Russia was limited. That said, the comments from the Trump administration during the press conference after the capture of Nicolas Maduro on Cuba, Colombia and Greenland suggests that more such episodes with a potential to increase geo-political tensions during the year cannot be ruled out. Perhaps the most concerning development has been the subpoenas served to the United States’ Central Bank from the Department of Justice threatening a criminal indictment. The United States Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, issued a statement stating that the threat of criminal indictment has been driven by refusing to bow to President’s wishes to reduce interest rates. The Fed chair further added that this is about the Central Bank’s ability to continue to set policy rates based on economic conditions or directed by political pressure. Any concern around independence of the world’s most important Central Bank can spook the fixed income markets and send the yields higher. In this scenario, the Trump administration would have shot itself in the foot as instead of achieving reduced borrowing costs for the government by reducing interest rates they would have increased borrowing costs and the cascading effect of the same in real economy and financial markets. We think the Trump administration is not oblivious to this possibility and hence is likely to proceed with caution on this front. The President denied any involvement in directing Department of Justice towards this end. Further, the move also met with a criticism from many lawmakers with some even saying that they will block the Trump’s Fed nominees, thereby avoiding a knee-jerk reaction from markets, in our opinion. In addition to the above, we note the announcements such as a pledge to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to reduce the mortgage rates and a capping the interest rate charged by credit card companies to 10%. Given that have republicans have lost several elections recently, we think the above moves are aimed to appease the United States public with an eye on mid-term elections. If implemented, some of these decisions could change the attractiveness of some areas over the other at a short notice. Further, given the opposition, the uncertainty around actual implementation of such decisions remains high, in our view. We think markets have responded to the uncertainty by allocating towards pockets within the safe-haven assets with less ambiguity such as gold and silver in addition to rotating portion of investments towards relatively safer sectors such as consumer staples. Notwithstanding the uncertainty, the balance of incoming economic data continues to remain supportive of risk assets. As per the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, members are leaning towards one more rate cut during the year 2026, while as per the Fed Funds Futures, the markets are expecting two rate cuts before the year-end. No rate cuts are expected by either Bank of Canada or financial markets on this side of the border. The evidence of softening in the labour markets has kept the pressure off the central banks to increase interest rates even as inflation remains somewhat elevated. Overall, we think economic environment and policy rate trajectory remains supportive for the risk assets. However, given the nature of uncertainty, we continue to advocate for selectivity while staying diversified for a broad range of outcomes in such an environment. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

  • Selectivity to Navigate Uncertainty

    North American capital markets have been witnessing choppy markets since the beginning of November as investors moved from one concern to another in a short span of time. From worries around impact of extended government shutdown on the state of the economy to if the United States Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut on December 10 th , the date for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, to if the extent of capital expenditure done to build the artificial intelligence infrastructure will eventually yield results for companies have kept investors on toes. Any company taking on leverage to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has been punished. In addition, any company across the artificial intelligence value chain failing to even slightly meet the lofty investor expectations has been met with increasing scepticism in the recent weeks. We do not doubt the transformational power of the technology and think the value will become more apparent as the industry and technology matures over time and starts to showcase more use cases and productivity benefits. That said, we think the markets will begin to differentiate between artificial intelligence winners and losers in 2026. Given the major players put on this litmus test are also the heavy weights in the indices; the choppiness at the index level is more likely to continue, in our view. Further, the recent weeks have also seen rotation away from the heavy weights to the laggards in the index. The broadening of markets is generally a good sign for the bulls. That said, for the index laggards to continue to play catch-up they will also have to demonstrate earnings growth. Declining interest rates could help to bring the interest expenses down; however, the ability to pass on the tariffs will differentiate between companies’ ability to protect margins. Tariffs have largely stayed in place and thus far companies have largely decided to not pass on tariffs to customers in expectations of a resolution. Going forward, this is likely to change as many companies reach their limits to not pass on the tariffs. Even if the Supreme Court rules tariffs as illegal, the Trump administration will try to figure out other ways to collect levies. This will keep policy uncertainty elevated. Another dynamic keeping policy uncertainty elevated is guidance from the Central Banks. On the 10th of December, the Bank of Canada kept policy rates unchanged at 2.25% and guided to hold rates steady in line with market expectations. The United States Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis-points cut on December 10th,  also in line with expectations, however, market expectations witnessed unusually large variations from the 29th of October (the previous meeting and guidance date) to the 10 th  of December (See Figure 1) (from ~68.9% on October 29, 2025 to ~29.3% on November 19 th , 2025 and then back to 93.4% on 10 th  December 2025). In other words, the markets are anticipating higher policy uncertainty in the United States as relative to Canada. Figure 1:  %Cut implied by Fed Funds Futures (US) and Overnight Index Swaps (Canada) Source: Bloomberg Overall, we think selectivity will be the key to navigate the uncertain set-up of 2026. Leaning on the recent trends in markets, the ability of laggard companies to meet expectations of earnings growth and the ability of the companies in the artificial intelligence value chain to demonstrate tangible value amid the uncertain policy backdrop will differentiate between winners and losers in 2026, in our view.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

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    HOME SERVICES ADVANTAGE COMMUNITY RESOURCES ABOUT US More CONNECT WITH US Invest in your future with a personalized Wealth Plan. Anchor 1 Are you looking for a wealth plan that fits your life now and grows with you? With your goals and dreams in mind, our Financial Advisors work with you to create a plan that grows your wealth and secures your future. Together we find the right solution to grow your investments, and keep you protected. Your Financial Journey You have a vision of where you want to go in life — all you need now is a map! Our Financial Advisors listen to you and apply their knowledge and tools to guide you towards your financial goals. We provide you with a practical, personalized wealth plan to set you on the right path. When life puts up a roadblock, we will be here to steer you in the right direction. We provide a multitude of investment options that we tailor to your specific needs. These include registered, non-registered, fully guaranteed, and non-guaranteed investment vehicles. Experience something different with the O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning Team. CONTACT US TODAY Meet the Advisors Matthew Felker Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Vipul Arora Portfolio Manager CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Cole Seabrook Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Keeley Patterson Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Sarah Chisholm Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Cynthia Batchelor Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Peggy Mathieson Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Daren Givoque Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. Allison Martin Financial Advisor CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. MEET OUR TEAM Our Services We offer the following suite of services to meet your personal and business Wealth Planning needs: Insurance Investments Retirement Planning Succession & Estate Planning Business & Tax Planning Wealth Management Discretionary Trading Mortgage Referrals * Charitable Giving Visit our Services page to read more about each of our services. Read more I highly recommend Sarah Chisholm and O’Farrell Wealth for all your investment needs. I've been with them for 3 years and have had a great experience so far! I love that Sarah is always there to help me with my financial questions — knowing she is just a phone call away for any concerns I have regarding my investments is a real comfort to me. I feel very comfortable with Sarah and she is very knowledgeable. I came to O’Farrell looking for a retirement savings plan and a few TFSAs and I left feeling like I made the right decision going with them. Jenna Blais Contact Us Today Live the life you want today and secure the legacy you want for tomorrow. Contact the O’Farrell Team to start planning a growth strategy for your wealth that you can preserve and pass on. Name Phone Number Email Address Prefered Method of Contact Reason for Contacting Us Preferred Office Location Who would you like to connect with? SEND CONTACT REQUEST Thanks for submitting! By providing your email address, you provide O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning with your express consent to receive Commercial Electronic Messages related to finances and/or investments that may be of interest to you. If you no longer want to receive emails of this nature, you can withdraw your consent at any time by contacting ofarrell@assante.com Meet with an O'Farrell Advisor at one of our five office locations. Feel free to contact us toll-free: 1.877.989.1997 BROCKVILLE 613.865.8080 40 Brock Street, Brockville ON CORNWALL 613.935.6254 108 Second Street East Unit 103 Cornwall ON KEMPTVILLE 613.258.1997 292 County Road 44 Kemptville ON RENFREW 343.361.0212 1035 O'Brien Road Unit 14 Renfrew ON WINCHESTER 613.774.2456 510 St. Lawrence Street P.O. Box 518 Winchester ON *Mortgage products and services are provided by CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. through its strategic partnership with Bank of Montreal. We collaborate with you and each other to deliver unbiased advice that meets your personal and business needs. Important Disclosures CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc Know Your Advisor: Advisor Report | Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (ciro.ca) For further Assante Wealth Management important legal and compliance disclosure, please visit www.assante.com/legal For more information on our privacy policy, please visit http://www.assante.com/privacy-policy www.cipf.ca https://www.ciro.ca/ © 2026 | All Rights Reserved

  • RESOURCES | O'Farrell Wealth

    Find tools for wealth management, advisor articles, videos and seminars, and more. HOME SERVICES ADVANTAGE COMMUNITY RESOURCES ABOUT US More CONNECT WITH US Resources Tools, news, and articles to keep you informed. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER O'Farrell News & Insights Articles Mid-Year Financial Check-Up: Are You on Track With Your 2025 Goals? As we cross the halfway mark of 2025, now is the perfect time for a financial check-up. It is a great idea to review the goals you set... Allison Martin Jun 4, 2025 Five Questions to Start your Financial Plan As a Financial Advisor, I often get asked variations of the following questions: When can I retire? How much do I need to save for... Sarah Chisholm May 1, 2025 Young Investors – Do they have financial knowledge? We try to teach our kids to be resilient, to know right from wrong, to stand up for themselves, to be polite and to work hard. Some of us... Cyndy Batchelor Mar 27, 2025 Children’s CI: A Worthwhile Investment? The worst news you could receive is that your child has fallen sick with a critical illness. Worry, fear, and concern come crashing down.... Andrew Goetz Mar 3, 2025 Maintaining Financial Goals in 2025 As we move into 2025, it’s essential to maintain focus on our financial goals. The beginning of a new year often brings a surge of... Cole Seabrook Jan 23, 2025 Holiday Greetings The holiday season is upon us! We are quickly approaching one of the busiest times of the year and it can be so easy to get wrapped up in... Allison Martin Dec 2, 2024 “Money on your Mind. Talk about it!” Each year the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) dedicates the month of November as Financial Literacy Month. The campaign for... Sarah Chisholm Nov 5, 2024 Estate Planning and Best Practices As part of the Estate Planning process, it is imperative that you organize your affairs so that they are managed according to your... Cyndy Batchelor Oct 1, 2024 1 2 3 4 5 Market Updates Wealth Market Recap Climbing The Wall of Worry The North American equity markets ended the last month of the year on a positive note despite several worries on investors’ minds. The concerns ranging from increasing geopolitical tensions, future profitability of companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure, to the policy rate trajectory amid still high inflation and a softening labour market weighed on investor sentiments for the most part in December. The ongoing uncertainty helped demand for saf Vipul Arora 7 days ago Selectivity to Navigate Uncertainty North American capital markets have been witnessing choppy markets since the beginning of November as investors moved from one concern to another in a short span of time. From worries around impact of extended government shutdown on the state of the economy to if the United States Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut on December 10 th , the date for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, to if the extent of capital expenditure done to build the artificial intelligence Vipul Arora Dec 17, 2025 Shutdown Jitters! After ignoring the risks from the government shutdown for a long period, the North American capital markets finally appeared on a shaky ground after the United States’ government shutdown entered its longest run. Historically, the markets have largely ignored the government shutdowns as they typically get resolved before they begin to cause lasting damage to the economy. However, the current shutdown carrying on beyond the 35 days (previous record) put together with air trave Vipul Arora Nov 13, 2025 No Easy Path! The month of September defied the expected seasonality of typically being a weak month of the year and both equity and fixed income asset classes witnessed positive performance for the month. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were in green by ~+4.25% and ~+4.92%; respectively, while the aggregate fixed income indices were up by ~+1.33% in the United States and ~+2.29% in Canada. The risk assets rallied in anticipation of the start of a policy rate cut cycle after a long Vipul Arora Oct 16, 2025 Policy support is around the corner After four consecutive positive months, stretched equity valuations and standing on the cusp of seasonally weak month of September, the... Vipul Arora Sep 11, 2025 Cheers and Jitters! North American capital markets witnessed continued optimism from the equity investors on... Vipul Arora Jul 11, 2025 Market Sentiment Improves The month of April proved to be a roller coaster for investors around the globe. The markets were jolted as Trump administration unveiled... Vipul Arora May 13, 2025 Mr. Market pushes back! The month of March witnessed continued caution by investors ahead of the much-awaited White House announcements on reciprocal tariffs on... Vipul Arora Apr 10, 2025 1 2 3 4 5 Invest in Your Financial Future. Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter. First name Last name Email I consent to O'Farrell Wealth & Estate Panning contacting me by email. Subscribe Thanks for subscribing! Anchor 1 Webinars Videos & Webinars Resources Assante Investor Online Financial Calculator RESP Savings Calculator EY Tax Calculator Farm Succession Planning: Getting the Conversation Started Intergenerational Estate Planning - Steps, Tools & Strategy! Six Things Every Canadian Should Know About Powers of Attorney Inflation, Interest Rates, & Investments - How to Manage Your Portfolio Right Sizing Your Life - Downsizing done Right First Time Home Buyers 1 2 3 Connect with the O’Farrell Team and start planning today. Now is the time to book your consultation and get your wealth planning strategy underway. BOOK YOUR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Meet with an O'Farrell Advisor at one of our five office locations. Feel free to contact us toll-free: 1-877-989-1997 BROCKVILLE 613.865.8080 40 Brock Street, Brockville ON CORNWALL 613.935.6254 108 Second Street East Unit 103 Cornwall ON KEMPTVILLE 613.258.1997 292 County Road 44 Kemptville ON RENFREW 343.361.0212 1035 O'Brien Road Unit 14 Renfrew ON WINCHESTER 613.774.2456 510 St. Lawrence Street P.O. Box 518 Winchester ON *Mortgage products and services are provided by CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. through its strategic partnership with Bank of Montreal. We collaborate with you and each other to deliver unbiased advice that meets your personal and business needs. Important Disclosures CI Assante Wealth Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc Know Your Advisor: Advisor Report | Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (ciro.ca) For further Assante Wealth Management important legal and compliance disclosure, please visit www.assante.com/legal For more information on our privacy policy, please visit http://www.assante.com/privacy-policy © 2026 | All Rights Reserved

  • Event Registration

    Event Registration Form HOME SERVICES ADVANTAGE COMMUNITY RESOURCES ABOUT US More CONNECT WITH US < BACK Event Registration This event is now over. Please visit our Community page to see other upcoming events! *Mortgage products and services are provided by Assante Capital Management Ltd. through its strategic partnership with Bank of Montreal. We collaborate with you and each other to deliver unbiased advice that meets your personal and business needs. Important Disclosures Assante Capital Management Ltd. (“ACM”) is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. Know your Advisor: IIROC Advisor Report Assante Financial Management Ltd. (“AFM”) is a member of the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada (“MFDA”) and MFDA Investor Protection Corporation. www.mfda.ca Stocks, bonds and mutual funds are provided through ACM. Mutual fund products are provided through AFM. Only those services offered through ACM are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, and only those services offered through AFM are covered by the MFDA Investor Protection Corporation. For more information please visit http://www.assante.com/legal or contact our office for clarification. To research the background, qualifications and disciplinary information on advisors at IIROC regulated firms please generate an IIROC Advisor Report. Employee benefits and pension consulting services, Mortgage lending services, and insurance products and services are provided through O’Farrell Financial Services Inc. (“OFSI”). OFSI is an independent company unrelated to ACM and AFM. For further Assante Wealth Management important legal and compliance disclosure, please visit www.assante.com/legal For more information on our privacy policy, please visit http://www.assante.com/privacy-policy www.cipf.ca https://www.iiroc.ca/ © 2023 | All Rights Reserved

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