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North American capital markets witnessed continued optimism from the equity investors on the back of progress on the trade talks while the skepticism of fixed income investors was visible in the choppy price action during the month of June. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were both in green for the month while aggregate fixed income index was flat in Canada and green in the United States. The change in tone of the Trump administration from escalating rhetoric on tariffs to telegraphing that several deals with trading partners are underway with good progress being made in discussions helped alleviate the concerns in equities markets. The reports of softer economic data in the United States led to an increase in expectations of policy rates cuts sooner than later despite the continued caution in the tone of the Federal Reserve bank. The bond yields in the United States dropped by ~16-to-17 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures of the yield curve (see Figure 1). On the other hand, the bond yields in Canada advanced by ~0-to-8 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures on the yield curve (see Figure 2). Figure 2: Canada Sovereign Curve We think the biggest relief the markets received during the month was the progress made on the trade talks, especially with China. Early on during the month, the news flow of constructive trade talks with China led to a restart of rare earth minerals exports to the United States, and eventually, an announcement that an understanding has been reached with China on the trade framework lifted market sentiment, in our opinion. In early July, United States also eased restrictions on export of chip design software to China. The optimism around trade was more than sufficient for equity markets to shrug off the risks from escalating tensions in the middle east and continued caution cited by the central banks. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both decided to keep policy rates at +4.50% and 2.75%; respectively. The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, stated that there is too much uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on inflation and unemployment rate; however, given that the economic data is benign for now, the Fed can afford to wait before making any decisions. The Bank of Canada’s governor, Tiff Macklem, also stated uncertainty around the United States trade policy in the backdrop of a somewhat softer economy and a firming up of inflation as reasons for the decision to stay put. The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ was signed into law on July 4th, 2025. As per the latest estimates of the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is expected to reduce expenditures by ~$1.2 trillion and reduce revenues by ~$4.4 trillion with a net effect of adding a deficit of ~$3.2 trillion over a period of next 10 years (2025-2034). The combination of higher interest rates along with increasing debt does not paint a good picture for United States’ fiscal situation. The United States’ President, Donald J. Trump, has been openly expressing his displeasure of the higher interest rates and criticizing the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for holding the interest rates high for too long. The attacks add to the jitters of fixed income investors as they question what might be the consequence of Federal Reserve losing its independence when the United States’ fiscal situation and trajectory is not looking pretty. Nevertheless, we also note that the messaging from the Trump administration has changed to that they have realized the path of growing the economy out of debt burden is perhaps a more reasonable way rather than expenditure cuts, which will impact economic growth adversely. Looking ahead, we think incremental softening of economic data in North America will increase the pressure on central banks to ease the monetary policy and therefore supportive of markets. If inflation remains under control, the case for central banks to keep policy rates on pause will get weaker. We also think the market volatility driven by erratic nature of policy making from Trump administration will remain elevated. However, provided that no substantially damaging policy is announced and implemented, markets should adapt and refocus on economic fundamentals. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As we cross the halfway mark of 2025, now is the perfect time for a financial check-up. It is a great idea to review the goals you set for yourself – whether it be saving, paying down debt, or finalizing your budget. Here are some things to consider:   1. Review your Financial Goals   Start by revisiting the goals you set at the beginning of the year. Think about the following: Saving a specific amount (e.g., emergency fund, down payment, etc.) Reducing debt (credit cards, student loans, mortgage, etc.) Investing for retirement or other long-term objectives Increasing income or side hustles Creating a budget and sticking to it   Ask yourself: Have I made any progress? Are these goals still realistic? Do I need to adjust my timelines?   2. Assess your Expenses   Compare your actual spending to your budget for the first half of the year.   Key questions: Are there items you consistently overspend on? Have any new expenses emerged? Can you cut back in certain areas to reallocate funds to your goals?   If your budget has drifted, now’s the time to make thoughtful adjustments.   3. Check on your Debt Reduction Progress   If paying down debt was a priority this year, check how much you have paid off and how much remains. Consider: Your current debt balances and interest rates Progress towards your payoff goals (e.g., “Debt-Free by 2026”) Whether you can increase payments in the second half of the year   You might also consider refinancing or consolidating debt if interest rates have shifted in your favour.   5. Review Investments and Retirement Accounts   Markets fluctuate, and so should your investment strategy — within reason. It’s important to have a sense of the types of investments you hold and if there may be better options for you. Your Financial Advisor can help ensure you are invested properly for your goals and risk tolerance.    6. What about Emergencies?   Ideally, have 3 to 6 months of expenses set aside. If you're not there yet, determine a realistic monthly savings goal to build up our emergency fund by year-end.   7. Plan for the Rest of 2025   Use what you’ve learned to refine your roadmap. Some steps might include: Setting a “no-spend” month to curb habits. Adjusting automatic savings or debt payments Scheduling a meeting with your Financial Advisor   Consider upcoming expenses like summer vacations or even Christmas, though it seems like a long time away. It’s vital to get ahead and plan for bigger expenses like these.   A mid-year financial check-in isn't just a good habit — it’s a powerful strategy for success. Small changes made today can significantly impact your financial well-being by the end of the year and beyond.    Allison Martin is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of April proved to be a roller coaster for investors around the globe. The markets were jolted as Trump administration unveiled his Reciprocal Tariff plans. If implemented as indicated, the plans implied that supply chains would choke, inflation would rise due to supply shortages; and economic growth would suffer as high uncertainty would force corporates to postpone capital expenditure decisions and households to curtail discretionary spending. Mr. Market immediately gave a thumbs down to the Trump administration’s announcements and the probability increased that a high volatility in capital markets could even lead to a systemic event. We believe the reaction from Mr. Market led the Trump Administration to re-think their plan. After going back-and-forth on the tariffs policy several times during the month, it now appears that there is an overall gradual de-escalation of the rhetoric on trade war. The soft economic data points such as consumer confidence, investor sentiment, inflationary expectations, and CEO confidence all showed a decline. The hard data such as unemployment, inflation, and retail sales have held up well. The divergence suggests that the impact of the tariffs policy is yet to be seen on the real economy. The good news is that the Trump administration is dialing back its hawkish stance and back peddling on many of the announced tariffs. The bad news is that a baseline 10% tariff on most goods is still in place, which is still high by historical measures. In addition, the adverse impact of policy uncertainty on the real economy is yet to become apparent, i.e. the hard economic data could also show softness in the coming months, in our view. In the short-term, we think risk assets are likely to welcome the developments as the outlook relatively improves from worse to less bad. In the medium-term, we think risk assets will have to discount the reality of the economic impact as it becomes apparent in the coming months. It is likely that inflation shows an uptick, and that unemployment also rises while economic growth slows. The ‘stagflationary’ environment will complicate the task of the U.S. Federal Reserve as its dual mandate (low inflation and low unemployment) could be at odds with each other. In such a scenario, lowering interest rates to support the softening economy (and thus help decrease unemployment) could further add to inflationary pressures. After its latest (Federal Open Market Committee) FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to hold policy rates steady at +4.50%. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, mentioned that it is likely that the Fed might face rising inflation and rising unemployment rates due to the tariffs and that the Fed would prefer to see how it plays out before deciding on policy rates. The Bank of Canada also decided to hold rates steady at +2.75% given the tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think the labor market data will be closely watched for any signs of deterioration in the real economy. If inflation rises due to the supply shock, the policy rates will be less effective in combating the same, in our view. If unemployment rises as economic growth slows, we think the Federal Reserve will not have a very strong argument to hold interest rates steady - even in face of higher inflation. Policy support should keep the overall investor sentiment constructive even if the economy witnesses some hiccups in the interim. Barring any further escalations on the trade war, we think the risk-on market sentiment is likely to prevail until hard economic data shows any signs of softness. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As a Financial Advisor, I often get asked variations of the following questions: When can I retire? How much do I need to save for retirement? What is my magic number?   Although I deal with these questions regularly, there is no simple answer. Instead, my role as a Financial Advisor is to help guide my clients through all the potential variables and build a plan that focuses on their specific goals. A holistic planning approach will look at your values and goals and take into consideration both qualitative and quantitative measures. Some of the initial questions I approach clients with include:   When would you like to retire?   Having a time in mind will allow your Financial Advisor to implement realistic savings strategies. If you are looking to retire at 55, then you will need to take a more aggressive savings approach or be willing to minimize your expenses in retirement. If you plan to retire at age 65 or 70, we can likely take a more balanced approach to savings. For a married couple, does retirement happen at the same time? Do you wait until your children are out of high school?   Where will you live in retirement? Housing can play a major factor in your retirement plan. Do you plan to stay in your current house forever? Will you need to do any renovations in retirement? Will you need to downsize from a two-storey house to a bungalow? Is it realistic to expect an influx of cash when you downsize or will the value of the homes be similar. Are you currently renting and would you like to continue renting in retirement? What about a cottage or travel?   What government pensions will you have? Are you currently earning a salary and paying into the Canada Pension Plan? Are you on track to get the maximum CPP or only a portion of it? For 2025, the maximum monthly CPP payment for a 65-year-old is $1,433. Is this realistic based on your situation? The average 65-year-old only receives $899.67 monthly in CPP. By logging into your My Service Canada account, you can see your statement of contributions and pull your CPP pension amount estimate.   Another source of income to consider is your Old Age Security (OAS). Have you lived in Canada your entire life? Do you know that Old Age Security is considered a social benefit, the government provides this payment for low- and middle-income Canadians. If your net income exceeds $90,997, you will start to see a portion of the OAS clawed back and when your net income exceeds $148,451, you will lose your entire OAS for the year.   Do you have a workplace pension plan, group RRSP or personal investments? In the past many employers provided their employees with the benefit of a defined benefit pension plan. A defined benefit pension plan provides a scheduled monthly payment in retirement based on your age, income, and the number of years you worked. As defined benefit pension plans can be very costly and hard to manage for an employer, many employers have switched to defined contribution pension plan (DCPP). With a DCPP there is a set contribution by both the employee and the employer, and the monthly payment in retirement is based on investment returns and not guaranteed. Is your workplace pension enough to support you in retirement? Is it a fully funded plan or is it at risk of being reduced? For those without a pension plan, are you contributing to a group registered retirement savings plan or a personal registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or a tax-free savings account (TFSA)?   What debts will you have in retirement? What debts are you currently carrying and will they be paid off before you enter retirement? Going into retirement with a balance on your mortgage or with credit card debt can significantly impact your ability to fund your day-to-day retirement expenses. If your retirement is in 17 years, but you have 20 years left on your mortgage, what strategies can you implement to have it paid off before retirement?   These five main questions can help kick start the financial planning process. There are so many more variables to consider and bring together to build your unique plan. Do not be afraid of the process, sit with your Financial Advisor and work through the questions, identify your goals and begin implementing strategies for retirement. There is no cookie-cutter approach to retirement planning. No simple calculation. Every individual and every family is unique.   Let the Financial Advisors at O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning of Assante Capital Management Ltd. build your plan. Book a complimentary meeting today.   Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/payment-amounts.html Sarah Chisholm is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of March witnessed continued caution by investors ahead of the much-awaited White House announcements on reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd, 2025. The confrontational posturing of the Trump administration towards United States’ trading partners had investors braced for some form of an adverse outcome. Taking cues from the announced objectives of the White House on trade imbalances, investors tried to gauge and discount the extent and magnitude of the tariffs and re-priced risk assets. The S&P 500 Index was down by ~-5.75% and the S&P TSX was down by ~-1.87% during March. The expectation among market participants was that the Trump administration team is working in the background to analyze the tariff and non-tariff barriers of its trading partners (an arduous task), which gave an appearance that the reciprocal tariff policy would be based on sound economic reasoning. Market participants also held on to hopes that lifting the uncertainty could support the markets after the sell-off. To their surprise, the scope and extent of tariffs announced were much larger-than-expected and were based on a simple mathematical formula with questionable logic.  In response to the reality of what these tariffs would imply for corporate profit margins, inflation, and global economic activity, the global markets sell-off accelerated immediately after the announcements. In our previous update, we alluded that for the probability of the market outlook to improve from here, either the Trump administration must capitulate as the adverse market reaction builds pressure and/or the opposition finds its footing and stages a push bask. As of this writing, markets are rallying as the United States President has announced a pause on the tariffs for 90 days on countries willing to negotiate. He also announced a hike of tariffs to 125% on China as it refused to negotiate. We think the adverse market reaction immediately after the announcement of tariffs, or in other words, a severe push back from Mr. Market on the reciprocal tariff policy had the administration thinking about the policy even though they maintained their tough posturing. The recent turbulence in the bond markets after the 10-year yield jumped by ~+60 basis points within a few days (see figure 1) causing industry participants to speculate if any event of substantial stress in the fixed income markets is near. Further, increasing news flow of countries gravitating towards China had made it clear that the actions of the Trump administration could ‘Make China Strong Again’ rather than America. Figure 1: US 10-yr yield jumped up sharply after reciprocal tariffs announcement Source: Bloomberg We think the above factors contributed to an announcement of a pause on Trump’s tariff policy. However, since the tariffs are paused for 90-days and have not been rolled back; and a minimum of 10% tariff is still applicable, we think the case for inflation to increase in the future remains in place. Furthermore, tensions with China will stay elevated. The first-quarter earnings season could shed light on the impact of the uncertain environment on the earnings outlook and could again weigh on the sentiment. We think the case to keep a defensive tilt in portfolios is intact for now.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

We try to teach our kids to be resilient, to know right from wrong, to stand up for themselves, to be polite and to work hard. Some of us teach our kids about money and finances. How can we ensure that once they are on their own that they will have all the advice that they need to live independently and be financially responsible? I often get asked by clients if I can work with their children. Sometimes because the parents don’t have the knowledge, but more often because much of what kids need to know isn’t taught in schools today. Often, advice from a third party is generally better accepted by youth.  I enjoy collaborating with young clients. I have two children who are just starting out in life, and I see how important it is that they have a good financial foundation. There are many types of accounts today that historically did not exist, and each one has its own set of contribution and withdrawal rules. Navigating these accounts, along with the tax implications of these accounts, shows how vital financial advice is at all stages in life. Financial Advisors can give the right advice and help you plan to ensure your money is working effectively for you as a young person. Aside from the types of accounts and investments, here is a little advice I give all young people on what I call “Money Skills for Youth”. Save Regularly - getting into a habit of saving regularly early on in life will ensure that you have the things you want now, as well as later. Start a Budget – understand your cash flow – income and expenses. The Power of Compound Interest and the Rule of 72! If you start saving at 15 and you earn 8% you need to invest approximately $125 a month to have $1Million at age 65. 72 divided by the interest rate is the number of years it will take you to double your money. Debt – never borrow to buy what you cannot pay off or you cannot resell. Diversification - when you are getting started with investing understand your risk tolerance, time horizon, and choose a diversified portfolio to reduce risk. If you are young and looking for advice or have children getting started with a savings plan, reach out to your Financial Advisor who can help to produce the right plan. A good plan always starts with good advice.   Cynthia Batchelor is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-935-6254 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The North American capital markets witnessed a tumultuous month. Investor expectations switched back and forth between hopes of a de-escalation of the trade war threats to concerns of worsening global trade as the Trump administration continues to upend the United States’ relations with its global trade partners. The hopes of ‘Trump Put’, an expectation that the United States President will back-pedal on escalations to alleviate investors concerns in the event markets nosedive, have also faded. Most recently, Trump and several of his cabinet members have indicated that they are not looking at the stock markets. The US President in the joint address to Congress said that he expects some initial pain after the tariffs. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, also stated in an interview that the United States economy will go through a ‘detox period’. In other words, the new administration seems prepared to go through pain to achieve its objectives. We believe the above statements exacerbated the already battered investor confidence and concerns gave way to despair, judging by the market price action for the past few days. From expectations of the United States economy to outperform the rest of the world on the back of business-friendly policies like lower taxes and deregulation, the outlook has changed dramatically to an economic deceleration or perhaps even an engineered recession in the United States. The back and forth on tariffs, upending of relationships with allies/friends, supporting the position of enemies in international arenas,  and job cuts of federal workers in the name of reducing wasteful expenditure, have all contributed to an environment of uncertainty in the United States and allied countries. The United States economic policy uncertainty index is now at levels last seen during the ‘Great Financial Crisis’ of 2008-2009 and the ‘Covid-19’ pandemic in 2020 (See Figure 1). As businesses postpone decision making during uncertain periods, the natural fallout is economic contraction, rise in unemployment and ultimately a recession if the uncertainty continues to linger. Figure 1: US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Source: Bloomberg Judging from the recent comments of members of the Trump administration, we think the likelihood of uncertainty to linger longer has increased. The barrage of executive orders and attacks on mechanisms of potential check on Trump administrations’ actions suggests it could be a while before a meaningful opposition to the damaging actions can be staged, in our opinion. On the brighter side, the Federal Reserve’s chair, Jerome Powell, has not raised the investors hopes of monetary policy support yet. Any positive surprise on this front could help the market sentiment, in our view. In addition, the crisis created in Canada due to tariffs has now galvanized enough support to direct the nation’s energies towards self-sufficiency. While tariffs will be a negative for Canada, the developments have set things in motion for decisions that could serve the country better in the long run. Similarly, for the United States, the things are now set in motion that will reduce its importance and power on the global stage in the long run given its new image of being an unreliable partner. The western world is fractured right now and is scrambling to find alternatives to the global roles the United States has abandoned. The silver lining is that this necessitates a lot of capital expenditure towards critical minerals, defense, energy and technological sufficiency by these countries, which in turn implies new opportunities for investors. We think the near-term headwinds for the global markets have increased and thus warrant a tactical defensive tilt to the investment portfolios. Furthermore, diversification to global geographies and different asset classes is a must to mitigate the downside risk in this environment. Nevertheless, the investment environment can change quickly if the United States shifts its position towards damage control rather then pressing on with the damaging policies. Overall, our optimism on the outlook for 2025 is tempered, however, we think the second half of 2025 should be relatively better. This could either be due to capitulation of Trump administration (reversal of some of the policies) to adverse market reaction and/or stalling of its actions as opposition finally finds it footing and stages a push back.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The worst news you could receive is that your child has fallen sick with a critical illness. Worry, fear, and concern come crashing down. Your world stops, but your bills and obligations do not.   It is very common, as a Financial Advisor, to encounter families who are unprepared for the financial strain and overall stress that can accompany a child’s critical illness. From unexpected expenses to taking extra time off work to be with your child. Children’s Critical Illness Insurance is a product designed to alleviate some of the pressure and provide peace of mind and financial stability during one of life’s most challenging moments.   What is Children’s Critical Illness (CI) insurance?   This type of insurance provides a lump-sum payment if your child is diagnosed with a covered critical illness, such as cancer, cystic fibrosis, or congenital heart disease. The funds can be used for medical expenses, travel for specialized care, or even to replace lost income if you need to take time off work. The funds can be used to assist you and your family during this time of need.   Critical Illness insurance is beneficial to parents, grandparents, and guardians who want to safeguard their family’s financial future in the event of a child receiving a diagnosis. It’s particularly beneficial for self-employed individuals or those without extensive paid leave, as it ensures financial stability while focusing on your child’s recovery.   Why choose Children’s CI coverage for your family?   1. Financial Security: The lump-sum payment can cover medical bills, therapy, or even household expenses, allowing you to focus entirely on your child’s well-being.   2. Affordable Premiums: Policies for children are often more affordable with premiums well within many families’ budgets, depending on the coverage and the child’s age.   3. Comprehensive Coverage: Many policies cover a wide range of illnesses, including those unique to children. Some policies can even be converted to adult policies in the future.   4. Peace of Mind: Knowing you have a financial safety net that can alleviate stress during a very difficult time.   Life is unpredictable, and a critical illness can be life altering for a family. By investing in a critical illness policy, you’re taking a proactive step to protect your family’s financial health. It’s not just about money—it’s about ensuring you can be there for your child without worrying about the financial implications.   If you would like to learn more about how Children’s Critical Illness Insurance can fit into your financial plan, please contact O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning. A Financial Advisor will be happy to discuss options tailored to your family’s needs. Let’s work together to secure your families peace of mind.   Andrew Goetz is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The North American Markets witnessed a bumpy start to the year 2025. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 Index and S&P TSX Index advanced by about +2.7% and +3.3% for the month, respectively. Fixed Income markets also delivered positive returns with bond yields declining on both sides of the border. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rates by +25 basis points to bring policy rates to +3.0% and the United States Federal Reserve decided to pause the rate cut cycle and held the rates at +4.5%. The bond yields on 2-to-10-year tenures were down by approximately 16-to-29 basis points in Canada while in the United States the decline was more modest at approximately 3-to-6 basis points. Despite the heightened uncertainty and choppy markets, the year 2025 has been off to a good start for investors. The incoming US President had well telegraphed intentions to implement tariffs on the imports from Canada, Mexico and China citing trade deficits; threats from illegal immigrants and drugs flowing into the country as a reason for concern. Investors anxiety was palpable before the inauguration ceremony on January 20th with speculations rife on which executive orders might get signed on the first day. However, the anxiety waned on the news that the President has chosen to ask federal agencies to investigate on the trade policies and report back by April 1st. This gave hope to investors that perhaps sensible choices will prevail and therefore measures might be less arduous than previously expected. This optimism proved short lived as towards the end of the month, the White House confirmed the intent to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico; 10% tariff on energy imports form Canada; and 10% additional tariffs on imports from China. The markets suffered another jolt during the month after a Chinese Artificial Intelligence start up company, DeepSeek, announced results of its AI models that produced better results than current LLMs (Large Language Models) and stated that the cost to train these models was at a fraction of a cost to train the current mainstream models. This raised the question whether the current spend on AI infrastructure is overdone. However, the market tremors due the start of tariff wars and advancements in Artificial Intelligence Technology in China also did not last long as tariffs on Canada and Mexico were put on hold for 30 days after the initial talks. Further, during the earnings calls of the big technology companies, forward looking guidance suggested the capital expenditure plans to scale up the Artificial Intelligence infrastructure have increased rather than decrease. We think uncertainty in the broader markets is likely to continue as news flow remains erratic around tariffs and trade war. Speculations around the end game of the Trump Administration to upend the existing international trade and relations will likely keep investors on the edge. While the greater border control as a desired outcome from Mexico and reducing the flow of Fentanyl precursors from China seem plausible reasons to play hardball; the same arguments appear weak with respect to Canada. Is the goal to just stem the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs or is it to put the negotiating parties on defensive before the negotiations of USMCA (erstwhile NAFTA) begin in 2026? Are the tariffs being implemented with an end goal of forcing the companies to manufacture more in the United States? Or is the end goal even more sinister such as weakening Canada to an extent that annexation by the United States appears to be a better choice? As of now, there are more questions than answers and the story continue to evolve with each passing day. That said, all or any of the above in any mix will have a varying degree of impact on the inflation and growth expectations and thus the capital markets. Trade wars are inflationary and uncertain outlook on inflation complicates the task for the Central Banks in 2025, in our opinion. The economic data has stayed strong with the Personal Consumption Index (Feds preferred measure of inflation) in line with expectations (+2.6% headline and +2.8% core for the month of December) and unemployment edging down to +4.0% in January from +4.1% in December in the United States. The headline inflation in Canada was also lower-than-expected at +1.8% in December (down from +1.9% in November) and unemployment dropped from +6.7% in December to +6.6% in January. We think the economic data and robust guidance from corporates continues to support the case for constructive outlook on markets. That said, erratic news flow around tariffs will keep the market price action choppy.   Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As we move into 2025, it’s essential to maintain focus on our financial goals. The beginning of a new year often brings a surge of motivation to improve our financial habits, but it can be challenging to remain committed. Whether you aim to pay off debt, save for a major purchase, or build long-term wealth, sticking with your financial goals requires strategic planning, discipline, and flexibility. Here are some effective strategies to help you stay on track and progress toward achieving your 2025 financial goals. 1. Set SMART Goals The first step to achieving your financial goals is to set clear, realistic objectives. Use the SMART goal framework — Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound when setting your goals. For example, instead of just saying, “I want to save more,” set a clear target: “I will save $5,000 for a down payment on a car by December 2025.” This approach helps you focus on a tangible goal, giving you a clear direction to follow. 2. Break Goals into Smaller Milestones Large financial goals can feel overwhelming, but breaking them down into smaller, manageable tasks can make them more achievable. For instance, if you want to save $5,000 by the end of the year, aim to save roughly $400 per month. By dividing your goal into smaller milestones, you can track your progress, celebrate small victories along the way, and stay motivated. 3. Automate Your Finances One of the most effective ways to stay on track with your financial goals, is automation. Set up automatic transfers to your savings and investment accounts, ensuring that a portion of your income is directed toward your goals without requiring active effort. By automating your savings, you reduce the temptation to spend money elsewhere and create a consistent path toward your financial goals. 4. Monitor Your Progress Regularly Reviewing your financial goals regularly is a crucial step to staying on track. Schedule quarterly check-ins to assess your progress and make adjustments, if necessary. If you're falling short of your savings targets or spending more than planned, use this time to identify areas for improvement. This review process helps you remain mindful of your financial objectives and allows you to course-correct before it's too late. 5. Stay Flexible and Adjust When Needed Life happens, and sometimes unexpected events can interfere with your financial goals. If you face a job loss, life event, medical emergency, or a financial setback, it’s important to be flexible. Adjust your goals to reflect your current situation, whether it means extending your timeline or modifying the amount of your goal. Flexibility ensures that you don’t become discouraged and helps you stay resilient in the face of challenges. 6. Build a Support System Staying committed to your financial goals can be challenging, but having a support system can make a significant difference. Whether it’s a financial advisor, a friend, or an online community; having people who can offer advice, encouragement, and accountability can help keep you motivated. Share your goals with someone you trust and ask them to check in on your progress. Their support can help you maintain momentum, especially during difficult times. 7. Avoid Lifestyle Inflation As your income grows, it’s tempting to increase spending on non-essential items. One of the biggest obstacles to achieving your financial goals is lifestyle inflation, spending more as you earn more. To stay on track with your 2025 goals, resist the urge to upgrade your lifestyle unnecessarily. Instead, channel any increase in income directly toward your savings or investment accounts. This disciplined approach allows you to accumulate wealth faster and stay focused on your financial goals.   In summary achieving your financial goals in 2025 is entirely within your reach, if you set clear, realistic objectives, remain disciplined, and adapt to life’s challenges. By setting SMART goals, breaking them into manageable milestones, automating your savings, and consistently monitoring your progress, you’ll position yourself for success. It’s also important to stay flexible, build a support system, and celebrate the small wins to maintain motivation. With these strategies, you’ll be well on your way to achieving your financial goals and setting yourself up for long-term financial success.   Cole Seabrook is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

“Bulls markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria” – Sir John Templeton After a stellar 2024, investors displayed some caution during the month of December, largely driven by the hawkish tone by the United States Federal Reserve during its meeting on December 18th, 2024. The committee delivered a 25 basis points cut, in line with market expectations, however it has dialed back on the expectations of policy easing during 2025. The Fed dots plot that shows the leaning of committee participants on a potential rate trajectory indicated that median policy rate in the United States, as at the end of 2025, is now projected to be 3.875%, up from 3.375% as projected in meeting during September (See Figure 1 and 2). In other words, the rate cut expectations were dialed back from four cuts to only two cuts during 2025. The fixed income asset class witnessed further losses as bond yields jumped higher on a more hawkish than anticipated tone of the Federal Reserve. Figure 1: Federal Open Market Committee Dots Plot 18th December 2024 Source: Bloomberg   Figure 2: Fed Dots Median Source: Bloomberg On this side of the border, the Bank of Canada delivered another jumbo cut of 50 basis points on 11 December and brought the policy rates to 3.25%. Increasing unemployment put together with benign inflation readings had placed the Bank of Canada in a comfortable position to ease monetary policy. The resilience of the United States economy, even in the face of high interest rates, backs the caution in the tone of the United States Federal Reserve on forward trajectory of policy rates. On the other hand, back-to-back jumbo rate cuts by the Bank of Canada were underpinned by the anemic growth in the Canadian economy. While Bank of Canada guided for a more measured approach to rate cuts going forward, the concern around the uncertainty caused by threat of 25% tariffs on good exported from Canada to the United States was palpable. We think the heightened caution resulted in the absence of a typical ‘Santa Claus rally’ during 2024. The Santa Claus rally refers to a seasonal advance in the North American markets during the sparsely traded last weeks of the year. Nevertheless, we think the silver lining of recent price action and market commentary is that the market sentiment can no longer be classified as euphoric, i.e., if one were to heed to the wise words of “Sir John Templeton”, the case of bull markets being over is not strong yet. We think the that markets in 2025 are set up to face several crosscurrents and investors are taking a notice. We note a few of the most importance as below The rising bond yields even in face of the lower interest rates implies bonds markets’ concerns on potential resurgence of inflation continue to linger, therefore, Central Banks can not put this issue to bed yet. The potential for increase in geopolitical tensions is high given the recent posturing of the incoming Trump administration on political issues around the globe. Trade and tariffs are going to be the weapon of choice for aggression and retaliation, which bring direct but idiosyncratic risks to the capital markets.   The risk of a recession remains low; and policy rate trajectory continues to be favorable, though at a slower pace. Lower regulations and business friendly policies from the new administration in the United States are likely to support markets. As per Bloomberg data, the index level headline earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 Index and S&P TSX Index are in the range in low-to-mid double digits. As long as the expected earnings growth remains robust, the case for constructive outlook on markets remains strong, in our opinion. Overall, we think the ebb and flow of developments around the above topics will determine the direction of the markets. Layering on high valuation and healthy corporate profits, we think a choppy but still a net positive price action could be the theme for North American markets this year.

The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index both registered healthy gains during the month of November as the North American equity markets celebrated the results of the United States Presidential Elections.  Equity Investors viewed the expectations of continuing tax breaks from 2017 and less onerous regulations as a positive.  The fixed income asset class was also green on both sides of the border; however, we think this was largely driven by investors dialing back expectations of higher inflation due to trade wars. The Cabinet announcements by the President-Elect, Donald Trump, were keenly analyzed by investors. The announcement of ‘Scott Bessent’ being picked as a Treasury Secretary, who has been known to have a moderate and prudent voice about tariffs, brought some relief to fixed income investors after a tough October. Higher tariffs will increase the cost of imports and, therefore, are inflationary.   The uncertainty around the policy rate trajectory has increased again with a higher potential of trade wars and its inflationary impact. Although the details on tariffs are still missing, initial volleys have been fired. China has prohibited exports of Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony to the United States in response to the USA's latest ban on export of advanced memory chips and chip-making tools to China. These banned materials are used in applications across semiconductors, solar cells, and military. The fixed income markets have reacted adversely to the developments given the impact of tariffs on inflation and the rate trajectory. Equity markets, however, are still to discount this development, in our view. The United States accounts for nearly two-thirds of Canada’s trade and therefore tariffs will have a substantial impact on the Canadian economy. Whether tariffs are implemented or not remains to be seen, however, it is certain that the rhetoric on trade will increase with the incoming United States administration. We think it will bring idiosyncratic volatility to the North American equity markets. Notwithstanding some concerns, the macro environment has continued to remain mostly favorable for the markets so far, in our view. The headline inflation has been benign for Canada and the United States (see Figure 1). The unemployment rate in Canada has continued to increase; while the unemployment rate in the United States has remained low by historical standards (see figure 2). Given the increase in unemployment numbers in Canada, industry participants are expecting a 50 basis points cut in policy rates after the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting on the 11th of December. In the United States, the expectations are more muted at 25 basis-points cut on the 18th of December. Figure 1: Headline inflation remains benign in Canada and the United States Source: Bloomberg Figure 2: Unemployment has been rising in Canada Source: Bloomberg Looking ahead, we think some market jitters can be expected due to the tariff talks and the potential escalation in geopolitical tensions. However, as long as macro environment remains favourable with robust economic data and accommodative Central Banks policies; the markets should overcome any short-term jitters and extend the current bull run. We wish our readers very Happy Holidays.