After ignoring the risks from the government shutdown for a long period, the North American capital markets finally appeared on a shaky ground after the United States’ government shutdown entered its longest run. Historically, the markets have largely ignored the government shutdowns as they typically get resolved before they begin to cause lasting damage to the economy. However, the current shutdown carrying on beyond the 35 days (previous record) put together with air travel disruptions reaching a critical stage and on top of disruption of several key economic data releases which investors and Fed officials rely on to take decisions added to investors angst during the past few weeks. While the extended government shutdown finally tested the investors patience, a few other concerns too have been building for a while. The chatter on whether Artificial Intelligence related stocks are in a bubble territory has been building for some time after their continued advance over the past few months. This was compounded by statements from leadership of a few banks, who during their third-quarter earnings releases said that they think a few areas of Artificial Intelligence related stocks have frothy valuations. We think high valuation alone can bring about some volatility; however, is not the reason enough to derail the bullish momentum in equities. As per Bloomberg data, the earnings-per-share for S&P 500 Index is expected to increase by ~+12.9% for the year 2026; while the earnings-per-share for the Bloomberg Artificial Intelligence Total Return Index is expected to increase by ~+23.9% for the year 2026. In other words, the relatively higher valuation of Artificial Intelligence companies has justification in their earnings story, in our opinion. We think the policy rates trajectory from the Central Banks remains a tailwind for capital markets and should continue to be constructive for the markets. The bond yields had been declining in anticipation of a policy rate cut for the most part during the month of October up until the announcement of a rate cut decisions on 29 th  October by the United States Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. On the decision date both the Central Banks cut policy rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada reduced the policy rate to +2.25% from +2.50% and the Federal Reserve reduced the policy rate to +4.00% from +4.25%. Despite getting the cuts as expected, the bond yields advanced after the announcement of rate cut decisions as both banks downplayed on the expectations of further rate cuts. Tiff Macklem, the governor of Bank of Canada, said that policy rates are low enough to stimulate the economy; while Jerome Powell, the chair of United States’ Federal Reserve, said that ‘further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion’. (See Figure 1) Figure 1: Bond yields advanced after rate decisions Source: Bloomberg Notwithstanding the hawkish tone, we note that the United States Federal Reserve will end the process of shrinking its Balance Sheet as on 1 st  December; and while the data remains scant; the evidence continues to point towards still weak labour market. Inflation has been creeping up for past few months; however, it is likely that Federal Reserve stays more tolerant of higher inflation to support the economic growth. Further, any resolution to reopen the government will alleviate any immediate concerns from investors. As of this writing, the US Senate had made progress towards ending the shutdown. We think the current balance of risks continues to point towards a constructive environment for the risk assets. Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

The month of September defied the expected seasonality of typically being a weak month of the year and both equity and fixed income asset classes witnessed positive performance for the month. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were in green by ~+4.25% and ~+4.92%; respectively, while the aggregate fixed income indices were up by ~+1.33% in the United States and ~+2.29% in Canada. The risk assets rallied in anticipation of the start of a policy rate cut cycle after a long pause on both sides of the border. The Central Banks did not disappoint investors as the Bank of Canada reduced the policy rate by 25 basis-points from +2.75% to +2.50% and the United States Federal Reserve also reduced the policy rate by 25 basis-points and brought the policy rate down from +4.50% to +4.25%. The expectations of the start of the rate cut cycle had been building after the United States’ Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, had indicated at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, that downside risks to employment are rising and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance. The unemployment rate in Canada has been persistently on a rise and has increased from +6.6% at the start of the year to +7.1% during the month of August (reported in September). Relatively, the unemployment rate in the United States has not increased at a similar pace and has increased from +4.0% at the start of the year to +4.3% during August (reported in September) (See Figure 1). However, it is noteworthy that the crackdown on the immigrant workers in the United States has complicated the proper measurement of the unemployment rate. As immigrant workers drop out of the work force, they do not form part of the calculation of labour force, and this conceals the true weakness in labour market. During the press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 17 th  of September; Jerome Powell acknowledged that the headline unemployment number perhaps does not indicate the true extent of labour weakness and though the inflation has not yet reached the desired target of +2.0%; the balance of risks have shifted to warrant policy rate adjustment. The Federal Reserve chair also said there is no risk-free path for the bank’s next moves as inflation is still elevated. Figure 1: Unemployment rate has been increasing steadily Source: Bloomberg We note that there is indeed ‘no easy path’ for the United States’ Federal Reserve as inflation and unemployment are not the only worries the country must face. Due to the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labour Statistics does not have the manpower to collect data and provide estimates of several key economic releases that feed into forming views of the members on Federal Reserve’s board. These include important datapoints such as non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and the consumer price index. The risk to the independence of Federal Reserve have been well discussed and risks spooking the fixed income investors at a time when yields are already high and the United States national debt is at an all time high of ~$37.8 trillion. Lisa Cook, a Fed board member, who has been targeted by the US President on accusations of mortgage fraud; has managed to get a stay on her firing until January. Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee to the Fed’s board after a member resigned, voted for a 50 basis points cut at the September meeting while the rest of members voted for 25 basis points. Investors are viewing the appointment of Stephen Miran on Fed’s board of governors as a step towards exerting greater influence of the White House on the US Federal Reserve’s decisions. Overall, the Federal Reserve appears to be facing challenges on many fronts. Nevertheless, we think the Central Banks cutting policy rates in a slowing but still growing economy put together with still robust earnings expectations for the year 2026 continue to bode well for the risk assets performance in the foreseeable future. We also think developments around Federal Reserve losing its independence, flaring up of geo-political tensions, companies’ guidance for the 2026 outlook during the third quarter earnings season; and/or resurgence of trade wars are the risks to be monitored in an increasingly volatile world. Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

After four consecutive positive months, stretched equity valuations and standing on the cusp of seasonally weak month of September, the chatter about the equity markets in North America has sounded understandably cautious in the recent weeks. Nevertheless, we think a few recent developments have made the case for continued positive performance of North American equities stronger. The fixed income markets on the other hand have been choppy throughout this year despite building expectations of start of rate cut cycle at some point during this year. Concerns around re-emergence of inflationary pressures and the United States’ Federal Reserve potentially loosing its independence have been on top of Investors mind, in our opinion. The United States’ President has been publicly mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for some time now. In a latest move to mount further pressure, the US President fired, Lisa Cook, who is on the Fed’s board to set policy rates. The accusations of mortgage fraud from the head of Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, was considered as reason enough for the US President to reach this decision. The Fed board member, Lisa Cook, however, has challenged the order and the case is now in courts. The fact that William Pulte, an appointee of the US President, has made similar accusations against his other political opponents has had investors see through this as a partisan move. This development followed shortly after accusations on Jerome Powell of lavishly spending to renovate Fed’s headquarters and calls from White House that the Fed chair should resign. Inserting political actors in Federal Reserve board could result in decisions that favour short term political goals rather than long term stability of economy. This risk is rising at a time when the US national debt is at all time high of ~USD 37 trillion (Debt-to-GDP ratio of ~128%), and is certain to spook fixed income investors, in our view. Not surprisingly, during August, the short-end of yield curve dropped and the long-end of the curve advanced resulting in steepening of the curve (See Figure 1). In other words, short-end reacted to rising expectations of potential interest rate cut in the short-term, while long-end expressed less confidence in the resolution of the current debt situation of the United States over long-term. Figure 1: United States yield curve steepened during August 2025 Source: Bloomberg We think Fed’s independence is a legitimate concern and developments around this are worth watching. We also note that the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, indicated in his prepared remarks for the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, that downside risks to employment are rising and shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance. Given that Jerome Powell had been fighting pressure from White House successfully throughout this year, we think the comments were made on legitimate concerns around economic developments rather than due to political pressure. Several economic data points on labour market during the first week of September indicated softening of labour market and justified the opinion expressed by the United States’ Fed chair, Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole Speech. As per Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Jobs Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, the Job openings for the month of July (reported in September) were at 7181k, lower-than-expected number of 7380k, while the layoffs were at 1808k, higher-than-expected number of 1639k. The ADP data on US private sector hiring indicated that private jobs increased by 54k in August, lower-than-expected number of 68k and were down from 106k jobs added during the month of July. For the Month of August, the Bureau of Labour Statistics data on nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls was at 22k and 38k, respectively; lower-than-expected number of 75k for both. Also, the unemployment rate increased from +4.2% in July to +4.3% in August in the United States and from +6.90% to +7.10% in Canada. With the labour market showing signs of cooling, the central banks on both sides of the border are expected to cut interest rates in their upcoming respective meetings on 17 September. Higher inflation numbers could dent expectations of rate cuts for some market participants and could also become an excuse for markets to shed some of the recent gains. However, we think any sell-off in markets should be taken as an opportunity to add positions. Given the likelihood of economy to run hot, i.e., higher growth and higher inflation; we think investors will better be placed to beat the inflation by staying invested in risk assets rather than sit on side-lines. Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Bloomberg   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc

North American capital markets witnessed continued optimism from the equity investors on the back of progress on the trade talks while the skepticism of fixed income investors was visible in the choppy price action during the month of June. The S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index were both in green for the month while aggregate fixed income index was flat in Canada and green in the United States. The change in tone of the Trump administration from escalating rhetoric on tariffs to telegraphing that several deals with trading partners are underway with good progress being made in discussions helped alleviate the concerns in equities markets. The reports of softer economic data in the United States led to an increase in expectations of policy rates cuts sooner than later despite the continued caution in the tone of the Federal Reserve bank. The bond yields in the United States dropped by ~16-to-17 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures of the yield curve (see Figure 1). On the other hand, the bond yields in Canada advanced by ~0-to-8 basis points across the 2-year-to-10-year tenures on the yield curve (see Figure 2). Figure 2: Canada Sovereign Curve We think the biggest relief the markets received during the month was the progress made on the trade talks, especially with China. Early on during the month, the news flow of constructive trade talks with China led to a restart of rare earth minerals exports to the United States, and eventually, an announcement that an understanding has been reached with China on the trade framework lifted market sentiment, in our opinion. In early July, United States also eased restrictions on export of chip design software to China. The optimism around trade was more than sufficient for equity markets to shrug off the risks from escalating tensions in the middle east and continued caution cited by the central banks. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both decided to keep policy rates at +4.50% and 2.75%; respectively. The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, stated that there is too much uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on inflation and unemployment rate; however, given that the economic data is benign for now, the Fed can afford to wait before making any decisions. The Bank of Canada’s governor, Tiff Macklem, also stated uncertainty around the United States trade policy in the backdrop of a somewhat softer economy and a firming up of inflation as reasons for the decision to stay put. The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ was signed into law on July 4th, 2025. As per the latest estimates of the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is expected to reduce expenditures by ~$1.2 trillion and reduce revenues by ~$4.4 trillion with a net effect of adding a deficit of ~$3.2 trillion over a period of next 10 years (2025-2034). The combination of higher interest rates along with increasing debt does not paint a good picture for United States’ fiscal situation. The United States’ President, Donald J. Trump, has been openly expressing his displeasure of the higher interest rates and criticizing the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for holding the interest rates high for too long. The attacks add to the jitters of fixed income investors as they question what might be the consequence of Federal Reserve losing its independence when the United States’ fiscal situation and trajectory is not looking pretty. Nevertheless, we also note that the messaging from the Trump administration has changed to that they have realized the path of growing the economy out of debt burden is perhaps a more reasonable way rather than expenditure cuts, which will impact economic growth adversely. Looking ahead, we think incremental softening of economic data in North America will increase the pressure on central banks to ease the monetary policy and therefore supportive of markets. If inflation remains under control, the case for central banks to keep policy rates on pause will get weaker. We also think the market volatility driven by erratic nature of policy making from Trump administration will remain elevated. However, provided that no substantially damaging policy is announced and implemented, markets should adapt and refocus on economic fundamentals. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As we cross the halfway mark of 2025, now is the perfect time for a financial check-up. It is a great idea to review the goals you set for yourself – whether it be saving, paying down debt, or finalizing your budget. Here are some things to consider:   1. Review your Financial Goals   Start by revisiting the goals you set at the beginning of the year. Think about the following: Saving a specific amount (e.g., emergency fund, down payment, etc.) Reducing debt (credit cards, student loans, mortgage, etc.) Investing for retirement or other long-term objectives Increasing income or side hustles Creating a budget and sticking to it   Ask yourself: Have I made any progress? Are these goals still realistic? Do I need to adjust my timelines?   2. Assess your Expenses   Compare your actual spending to your budget for the first half of the year.   Key questions: Are there items you consistently overspend on? Have any new expenses emerged? Can you cut back in certain areas to reallocate funds to your goals?   If your budget has drifted, now’s the time to make thoughtful adjustments.   3. Check on your Debt Reduction Progress   If paying down debt was a priority this year, check how much you have paid off and how much remains. Consider: Your current debt balances and interest rates Progress towards your payoff goals (e.g., “Debt-Free by 2026”) Whether you can increase payments in the second half of the year   You might also consider refinancing or consolidating debt if interest rates have shifted in your favour.   5. Review Investments and Retirement Accounts   Markets fluctuate, and so should your investment strategy — within reason. It’s important to have a sense of the types of investments you hold and if there may be better options for you. Your Financial Advisor can help ensure you are invested properly for your goals and risk tolerance.    6. What about Emergencies?   Ideally, have 3 to 6 months of expenses set aside. If you're not there yet, determine a realistic monthly savings goal to build up our emergency fund by year-end.   7. Plan for the Rest of 2025   Use what you’ve learned to refine your roadmap. Some steps might include: Setting a “no-spend” month to curb habits. Adjusting automatic savings or debt payments Scheduling a meeting with your Financial Advisor   Consider upcoming expenses like summer vacations or even Christmas, though it seems like a long time away. It’s vital to get ahead and plan for bigger expenses like these.   A mid-year financial check-in isn't just a good habit — it’s a powerful strategy for success. Small changes made today can significantly impact your financial well-being by the end of the year and beyond.    Allison Martin is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of April proved to be a roller coaster for investors around the globe. The markets were jolted as Trump administration unveiled his Reciprocal Tariff plans. If implemented as indicated, the plans implied that supply chains would choke, inflation would rise due to supply shortages; and economic growth would suffer as high uncertainty would force corporates to postpone capital expenditure decisions and households to curtail discretionary spending. Mr. Market immediately gave a thumbs down to the Trump administration’s announcements and the probability increased that a high volatility in capital markets could even lead to a systemic event. We believe the reaction from Mr. Market led the Trump Administration to re-think their plan. After going back-and-forth on the tariffs policy several times during the month, it now appears that there is an overall gradual de-escalation of the rhetoric on trade war. The soft economic data points such as consumer confidence, investor sentiment, inflationary expectations, and CEO confidence all showed a decline. The hard data such as unemployment, inflation, and retail sales have held up well. The divergence suggests that the impact of the tariffs policy is yet to be seen on the real economy. The good news is that the Trump administration is dialing back its hawkish stance and back peddling on many of the announced tariffs. The bad news is that a baseline 10% tariff on most goods is still in place, which is still high by historical measures. In addition, the adverse impact of policy uncertainty on the real economy is yet to become apparent, i.e. the hard economic data could also show softness in the coming months, in our view. In the short-term, we think risk assets are likely to welcome the developments as the outlook relatively improves from worse to less bad. In the medium-term, we think risk assets will have to discount the reality of the economic impact as it becomes apparent in the coming months. It is likely that inflation shows an uptick, and that unemployment also rises while economic growth slows. The ‘stagflationary’ environment will complicate the task of the U.S. Federal Reserve as its dual mandate (low inflation and low unemployment) could be at odds with each other. In such a scenario, lowering interest rates to support the softening economy (and thus help decrease unemployment) could further add to inflationary pressures. After its latest (Federal Open Market Committee) FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to hold policy rates steady at +4.50%. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, mentioned that it is likely that the Fed might face rising inflation and rising unemployment rates due to the tariffs and that the Fed would prefer to see how it plays out before deciding on policy rates. The Bank of Canada also decided to hold rates steady at +2.75% given the tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think the labor market data will be closely watched for any signs of deterioration in the real economy. If inflation rises due to the supply shock, the policy rates will be less effective in combating the same, in our view. If unemployment rises as economic growth slows, we think the Federal Reserve will not have a very strong argument to hold interest rates steady - even in face of higher inflation. Policy support should keep the overall investor sentiment constructive even if the economy witnesses some hiccups in the interim. Barring any further escalations on the trade war, we think the risk-on market sentiment is likely to prevail until hard economic data shows any signs of softness. Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, and Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

As a Financial Advisor, I often get asked variations of the following questions: When can I retire? How much do I need to save for retirement? What is my magic number?   Although I deal with these questions regularly, there is no simple answer. Instead, my role as a Financial Advisor is to help guide my clients through all the potential variables and build a plan that focuses on their specific goals. A holistic planning approach will look at your values and goals and take into consideration both qualitative and quantitative measures. Some of the initial questions I approach clients with include:   When would you like to retire?   Having a time in mind will allow your Financial Advisor to implement realistic savings strategies. If you are looking to retire at 55, then you will need to take a more aggressive savings approach or be willing to minimize your expenses in retirement. If you plan to retire at age 65 or 70, we can likely take a more balanced approach to savings. For a married couple, does retirement happen at the same time? Do you wait until your children are out of high school?   Where will you live in retirement? Housing can play a major factor in your retirement plan. Do you plan to stay in your current house forever? Will you need to do any renovations in retirement? Will you need to downsize from a two-storey house to a bungalow? Is it realistic to expect an influx of cash when you downsize or will the value of the homes be similar. Are you currently renting and would you like to continue renting in retirement? What about a cottage or travel?   What government pensions will you have? Are you currently earning a salary and paying into the Canada Pension Plan? Are you on track to get the maximum CPP or only a portion of it? For 2025, the maximum monthly CPP payment for a 65-year-old is $1,433. Is this realistic based on your situation? The average 65-year-old only receives $899.67 monthly in CPP. By logging into your My Service Canada account, you can see your statement of contributions and pull your CPP pension amount estimate.   Another source of income to consider is your Old Age Security (OAS). Have you lived in Canada your entire life? Do you know that Old Age Security is considered a social benefit, the government provides this payment for low- and middle-income Canadians. If your net income exceeds $90,997, you will start to see a portion of the OAS clawed back and when your net income exceeds $148,451, you will lose your entire OAS for the year.   Do you have a workplace pension plan, group RRSP or personal investments? In the past many employers provided their employees with the benefit of a defined benefit pension plan. A defined benefit pension plan provides a scheduled monthly payment in retirement based on your age, income, and the number of years you worked. As defined benefit pension plans can be very costly and hard to manage for an employer, many employers have switched to defined contribution pension plan (DCPP). With a DCPP there is a set contribution by both the employee and the employer, and the monthly payment in retirement is based on investment returns and not guaranteed. Is your workplace pension enough to support you in retirement? Is it a fully funded plan or is it at risk of being reduced? For those without a pension plan, are you contributing to a group registered retirement savings plan or a personal registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or a tax-free savings account (TFSA)?   What debts will you have in retirement? What debts are you currently carrying and will they be paid off before you enter retirement? Going into retirement with a balance on your mortgage or with credit card debt can significantly impact your ability to fund your day-to-day retirement expenses. If your retirement is in 17 years, but you have 20 years left on your mortgage, what strategies can you implement to have it paid off before retirement?   These five main questions can help kick start the financial planning process. There are so many more variables to consider and bring together to build your unique plan. Do not be afraid of the process, sit with your Financial Advisor and work through the questions, identify your goals and begin implementing strategies for retirement. There is no cookie-cutter approach to retirement planning. No simple calculation. Every individual and every family is unique.   Let the Financial Advisors at O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning of Assante Capital Management Ltd. build your plan. Book a complimentary meeting today.   Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/payment-amounts.html Sarah Chisholm is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-774-2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The month of March witnessed continued caution by investors ahead of the much-awaited White House announcements on reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd, 2025. The confrontational posturing of the Trump administration towards United States’ trading partners had investors braced for some form of an adverse outcome. Taking cues from the announced objectives of the White House on trade imbalances, investors tried to gauge and discount the extent and magnitude of the tariffs and re-priced risk assets. The S&P 500 Index was down by ~-5.75% and the S&P TSX was down by ~-1.87% during March. The expectation among market participants was that the Trump administration team is working in the background to analyze the tariff and non-tariff barriers of its trading partners (an arduous task), which gave an appearance that the reciprocal tariff policy would be based on sound economic reasoning. Market participants also held on to hopes that lifting the uncertainty could support the markets after the sell-off. To their surprise, the scope and extent of tariffs announced were much larger-than-expected and were based on a simple mathematical formula with questionable logic.  In response to the reality of what these tariffs would imply for corporate profit margins, inflation, and global economic activity, the global markets sell-off accelerated immediately after the announcements. In our previous update, we alluded that for the probability of the market outlook to improve from here, either the Trump administration must capitulate as the adverse market reaction builds pressure and/or the opposition finds its footing and stages a push bask. As of this writing, markets are rallying as the United States President has announced a pause on the tariffs for 90 days on countries willing to negotiate. He also announced a hike of tariffs to 125% on China as it refused to negotiate. We think the adverse market reaction immediately after the announcement of tariffs, or in other words, a severe push back from Mr. Market on the reciprocal tariff policy had the administration thinking about the policy even though they maintained their tough posturing. The recent turbulence in the bond markets after the 10-year yield jumped by ~+60 basis points within a few days (see figure 1) causing industry participants to speculate if any event of substantial stress in the fixed income markets is near. Further, increasing news flow of countries gravitating towards China had made it clear that the actions of the Trump administration could ‘Make China Strong Again’ rather than America. Figure 1: US 10-yr yield jumped up sharply after reciprocal tariffs announcement Source: Bloomberg We think the above factors contributed to an announcement of a pause on Trump’s tariff policy. However, since the tariffs are paused for 90-days and have not been rolled back; and a minimum of 10% tariff is still applicable, we think the case for inflation to increase in the future remains in place. Furthermore, tensions with China will stay elevated. The first-quarter earnings season could shed light on the impact of the uncertain environment on the earnings outlook and could again weigh on the sentiment. We think the case to keep a defensive tilt in portfolios is intact for now.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

We try to teach our kids to be resilient, to know right from wrong, to stand up for themselves, to be polite and to work hard. Some of us teach our kids about money and finances. How can we ensure that once they are on their own that they will have all the advice that they need to live independently and be financially responsible? I often get asked by clients if I can work with their children. Sometimes because the parents don’t have the knowledge, but more often because much of what kids need to know isn’t taught in schools today. Often, advice from a third party is generally better accepted by youth.  I enjoy collaborating with young clients. I have two children who are just starting out in life, and I see how important it is that they have a good financial foundation. There are many types of accounts today that historically did not exist, and each one has its own set of contribution and withdrawal rules. Navigating these accounts, along with the tax implications of these accounts, shows how vital financial advice is at all stages in life. Financial Advisors can give the right advice and help you plan to ensure your money is working effectively for you as a young person. Aside from the types of accounts and investments, here is a little advice I give all young people on what I call “Money Skills for Youth”. Save Regularly - getting into a habit of saving regularly early on in life will ensure that you have the things you want now, as well as later. Start a Budget – understand your cash flow – income and expenses. The Power of Compound Interest and the Rule of 72! If you start saving at 15 and you earn 8% you need to invest approximately $125 a month to have $1Million at age 65. 72 divided by the interest rate is the number of years it will take you to double your money. Debt – never borrow to buy what you cannot pay off or you cannot resell. Diversification - when you are getting started with investing understand your risk tolerance, time horizon, and choose a diversified portfolio to reduce risk. If you are young and looking for advice or have children getting started with a savings plan, reach out to your Financial Advisor who can help to produce the right plan. A good plan always starts with good advice.   Cynthia Batchelor is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613-935-6254 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The North American capital markets witnessed a tumultuous month. Investor expectations switched back and forth between hopes of a de-escalation of the trade war threats to concerns of worsening global trade as the Trump administration continues to upend the United States’ relations with its global trade partners. The hopes of ‘Trump Put’, an expectation that the United States President will back-pedal on escalations to alleviate investors concerns in the event markets nosedive, have also faded. Most recently, Trump and several of his cabinet members have indicated that they are not looking at the stock markets. The US President in the joint address to Congress said that he expects some initial pain after the tariffs. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, also stated in an interview that the United States economy will go through a ‘detox period’. In other words, the new administration seems prepared to go through pain to achieve its objectives. We believe the above statements exacerbated the already battered investor confidence and concerns gave way to despair, judging by the market price action for the past few days. From expectations of the United States economy to outperform the rest of the world on the back of business-friendly policies like lower taxes and deregulation, the outlook has changed dramatically to an economic deceleration or perhaps even an engineered recession in the United States. The back and forth on tariffs, upending of relationships with allies/friends, supporting the position of enemies in international arenas,  and job cuts of federal workers in the name of reducing wasteful expenditure, have all contributed to an environment of uncertainty in the United States and allied countries. The United States economic policy uncertainty index is now at levels last seen during the ‘Great Financial Crisis’ of 2008-2009 and the ‘Covid-19’ pandemic in 2020 (See Figure 1). As businesses postpone decision making during uncertain periods, the natural fallout is economic contraction, rise in unemployment and ultimately a recession if the uncertainty continues to linger. Figure 1: US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Source: Bloomberg Judging from the recent comments of members of the Trump administration, we think the likelihood of uncertainty to linger longer has increased. The barrage of executive orders and attacks on mechanisms of potential check on Trump administrations’ actions suggests it could be a while before a meaningful opposition to the damaging actions can be staged, in our opinion. On the brighter side, the Federal Reserve’s chair, Jerome Powell, has not raised the investors hopes of monetary policy support yet. Any positive surprise on this front could help the market sentiment, in our view. In addition, the crisis created in Canada due to tariffs has now galvanized enough support to direct the nation’s energies towards self-sufficiency. While tariffs will be a negative for Canada, the developments have set things in motion for decisions that could serve the country better in the long run. Similarly, for the United States, the things are now set in motion that will reduce its importance and power on the global stage in the long run given its new image of being an unreliable partner. The western world is fractured right now and is scrambling to find alternatives to the global roles the United States has abandoned. The silver lining is that this necessitates a lot of capital expenditure towards critical minerals, defense, energy and technological sufficiency by these countries, which in turn implies new opportunities for investors. We think the near-term headwinds for the global markets have increased and thus warrant a tactical defensive tilt to the investment portfolios. Furthermore, diversification to global geographies and different asset classes is a must to mitigate the downside risk in this environment. Nevertheless, the investment environment can change quickly if the United States shifts its position towards damage control rather then pressing on with the damaging policies. Overall, our optimism on the outlook for 2025 is tempered, however, we think the second half of 2025 should be relatively better. This could either be due to capitulation of Trump administration (reversal of some of the policies) to adverse market reaction and/or stalling of its actions as opposition finally finds it footing and stages a push back.   Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The worst news you could receive is that your child has fallen sick with a critical illness. Worry, fear, and concern come crashing down. Your world stops, but your bills and obligations do not.   It is very common, as a Financial Advisor, to encounter families who are unprepared for the financial strain and overall stress that can accompany a child’s critical illness. From unexpected expenses to taking extra time off work to be with your child. Children’s Critical Illness Insurance is a product designed to alleviate some of the pressure and provide peace of mind and financial stability during one of life’s most challenging moments.   What is Children’s Critical Illness (CI) insurance?   This type of insurance provides a lump-sum payment if your child is diagnosed with a covered critical illness, such as cancer, cystic fibrosis, or congenital heart disease. The funds can be used for medical expenses, travel for specialized care, or even to replace lost income if you need to take time off work. The funds can be used to assist you and your family during this time of need.   Critical Illness insurance is beneficial to parents, grandparents, and guardians who want to safeguard their family’s financial future in the event of a child receiving a diagnosis. It’s particularly beneficial for self-employed individuals or those without extensive paid leave, as it ensures financial stability while focusing on your child’s recovery.   Why choose Children’s CI coverage for your family?   1. Financial Security: The lump-sum payment can cover medical bills, therapy, or even household expenses, allowing you to focus entirely on your child’s well-being.   2. Affordable Premiums: Policies for children are often more affordable with premiums well within many families’ budgets, depending on the coverage and the child’s age.   3. Comprehensive Coverage: Many policies cover a wide range of illnesses, including those unique to children. Some policies can even be converted to adult policies in the future.   4. Peace of Mind: Knowing you have a financial safety net that can alleviate stress during a very difficult time.   Life is unpredictable, and a critical illness can be life altering for a family. By investing in a critical illness policy, you’re taking a proactive step to protect your family’s financial health. It’s not just about money—it’s about ensuring you can be there for your child without worrying about the financial implications.   If you would like to learn more about how Children’s Critical Illness Insurance can fit into your financial plan, please contact O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning. A Financial Advisor will be happy to discuss options tailored to your family’s needs. Let’s work together to secure your families peace of mind.   Andrew Goetz is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

The North American Markets witnessed a bumpy start to the year 2025. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 Index and S&P TSX Index advanced by about +2.7% and +3.3% for the month, respectively. Fixed Income markets also delivered positive returns with bond yields declining on both sides of the border. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rates by +25 basis points to bring policy rates to +3.0% and the United States Federal Reserve decided to pause the rate cut cycle and held the rates at +4.5%. The bond yields on 2-to-10-year tenures were down by approximately 16-to-29 basis points in Canada while in the United States the decline was more modest at approximately 3-to-6 basis points. Despite the heightened uncertainty and choppy markets, the year 2025 has been off to a good start for investors. The incoming US President had well telegraphed intentions to implement tariffs on the imports from Canada, Mexico and China citing trade deficits; threats from illegal immigrants and drugs flowing into the country as a reason for concern. Investors anxiety was palpable before the inauguration ceremony on January 20th with speculations rife on which executive orders might get signed on the first day. However, the anxiety waned on the news that the President has chosen to ask federal agencies to investigate on the trade policies and report back by April 1st. This gave hope to investors that perhaps sensible choices will prevail and therefore measures might be less arduous than previously expected. This optimism proved short lived as towards the end of the month, the White House confirmed the intent to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico; 10% tariff on energy imports form Canada; and 10% additional tariffs on imports from China. The markets suffered another jolt during the month after a Chinese Artificial Intelligence start up company, DeepSeek, announced results of its AI models that produced better results than current LLMs (Large Language Models) and stated that the cost to train these models was at a fraction of a cost to train the current mainstream models. This raised the question whether the current spend on AI infrastructure is overdone. However, the market tremors due the start of tariff wars and advancements in Artificial Intelligence Technology in China also did not last long as tariffs on Canada and Mexico were put on hold for 30 days after the initial talks. Further, during the earnings calls of the big technology companies, forward looking guidance suggested the capital expenditure plans to scale up the Artificial Intelligence infrastructure have increased rather than decrease. We think uncertainty in the broader markets is likely to continue as news flow remains erratic around tariffs and trade war. Speculations around the end game of the Trump Administration to upend the existing international trade and relations will likely keep investors on the edge. While the greater border control as a desired outcome from Mexico and reducing the flow of Fentanyl precursors from China seem plausible reasons to play hardball; the same arguments appear weak with respect to Canada. Is the goal to just stem the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs or is it to put the negotiating parties on defensive before the negotiations of USMCA (erstwhile NAFTA) begin in 2026? Are the tariffs being implemented with an end goal of forcing the companies to manufacture more in the United States? Or is the end goal even more sinister such as weakening Canada to an extent that annexation by the United States appears to be a better choice? As of now, there are more questions than answers and the story continue to evolve with each passing day. That said, all or any of the above in any mix will have a varying degree of impact on the inflation and growth expectations and thus the capital markets. Trade wars are inflationary and uncertain outlook on inflation complicates the task for the Central Banks in 2025, in our opinion. The economic data has stayed strong with the Personal Consumption Index (Feds preferred measure of inflation) in line with expectations (+2.6% headline and +2.8% core for the month of December) and unemployment edging down to +4.0% in January from +4.1% in December in the United States. The headline inflation in Canada was also lower-than-expected at +1.8% in December (down from +1.9% in November) and unemployment dropped from +6.7% in December to +6.6% in January. We think the economic data and robust guidance from corporates continues to support the case for constructive outlook on markets. That said, erratic news flow around tariffs will keep the market price action choppy.   Source: Bloomberg Vipul Arora is a Portfolio Manager with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613-258-1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com  to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.