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During April, the North American Capital markets traded back and forth between investor optimism and concerns. With one eye on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision after their meeting on May 3, the developments during the month and their read through on the potential future trajectory of policy rates dictated the price action. A decline in headline inflation from +6.0% in February (reported in March) to +5.0% in March (reported in April) in the US and from +5.2% in February (reported in March) to +4.3% in March (reported in April) in Canada helped investor sentiment. The markets later pulled back with more regional bank failures in the US increasing investor concerns of a potential contagion, only to be helped again by the better-than expected reported earnings by a few mega-caps in the index. Overall, the price action during the last week of the month helped equity markets end in green. On May 3rd, the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, announced a 25 basis-points policy rate hike, in line with market expectations but stopped short of explicitly announcing a pause to the policy rates hikes. Nevertheless, the use of language such as “close to a pause or maybe even there” and “possibly at sufficiently restrictive levels” led industry participants to believe that a pause might be announced as soon as the next meeting in June. While this was in line with the market expectations, we think equity markets reacted poorly as on the balance the message was perceived as hawkish. The US Federal Reserve Chairman re-emphasized that the committee is sticking to the goal of bringing inflation back to 2% and rebutted any expectations of a rate cut during the year. The message is at odds with fixed-income market expectations that are baking in ~59.8% probability (as on May 4th) of an interest rate cut as soon as during July meeting (Source: CME Group). The news flow of regional banks failures in the US has continued unabated and added to investor angst over the past few weeks. The Fed chair stated that the overall financial system is sound and the recent regional bank problems are supportive of the Fed’s objective of bringing down inflation by further tightening financial conditions. In other words, the central bank is prepared to let markets endure some pain while it awaits inflation to get close to the 2% goal before it even considers a rate cut. Reduction in availability of credit, leads to destruction of demand and thus helps bring back the demand-supply imbalance. The risk in this approach is that the tightening could worsen to the level of a credit crunch which would lead to a severe recession. Thus far, markets have traded consistent with the expectations of a mild recession or a soft landing. The Fed chair further pointed out that inflation as measured by the ‘core services ex-housing’ is still too high and the committee would like to see it receding before even considering a rate cut. The bad news is that the measure typically declines during a recession (See Figure 1) and the good news is that with interest rates now at 5.25%, the Fed has ammunition to help the economy should a recession ensue in the quest to bring this inflation measure down. Figure 1: Inflation typically declines during a recession Overall, we think the reduction of the gap between market expectations and the Fed’s guidance is fraught with more bank failures and crisis scares in the short-term. While peak policy rates do make a case for adding some risk to the portfolios, an overall defensive position makes sense to navigate through the near-term volatility at this stage of the cycle, in our view.

The financial market developments of the last month strengthened the thesis of a potential hard landing that had gained ground during February. However, the expectations of year end policy rates being higher flipped again during March after the collapse of a few regional banks in the US and signs of stress developed in a few international banks. As implied by the Fed Funds Futures, the expectations of the year-end policy rate that stood at ~4.47% on January 31st, rose to as high as ~5.55% on March 8th and fell to ~4.35% on March 31st. The yield on the US 10-year treasury jumped from ~3.50% on January 31st to ~3.99% on March 8th and dropped again to ~3.47% on March 31st, indicating the uncertainty in the fixed-income markets (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.). As we see it, the confusion in fixed-income markets stems from the Federal Reserve's persistent hawkishness even as cracks emerge in financial markets. While keeping inflation under check is one of the primary goals of the central banks, the stability of the financial system is paramount. As the risk of deposit flight from the US regional banks gathered pace, the Federal Reserve announced the availability of additional funding through a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to shore up depositors’ confidence in the banking system. Historical evidence suggests that such support measures are typical at the end of a policy rate hike cycle as the damage from higher interest rates begins to show. The fixed income markets discounted this probability by pushing down yields across the yield curve during March (See Figure 1). However, on March 22nd, the US Federal Reserve decided to push through the 25-basis point rate hike despite emerging cracks in the financial system. Figure 1: Yields have dropped across the curve During a transitional period of high policy rates, falling but still high inflation, and a slowing economy, uncertainty and therefore volatility is inevitable in financial markets. The central banks have a tightrope to walk on as premature signalling of an end to the tight monetary conditions might prove counterproductive and keeping policy tight for too long increases the risk of recession. Leading indicators such as the Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and Services PMI are showing signs of a decelerating economy (the central banks’ desired path to bring down inflation). Lagging indicators such as unemployment and job openings, while still strong, are beginning to show the effects of higher interest rates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.3 in March from 47.7 in February. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 51.2 in March from 55.1 in February. The ratio of total job openings to unemployed workers in the workforce also dropped from 1.96 at the beginning of the year to 1.67 as of the end of February (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.). In line with our expectations, the various inflation measures are also improving. US headline inflation fell to 6.0% in February (reported in March) from 6.4% in the previous month, and the Canadian headline inflation fell to 5.2% in February from 5.9% in the previous month (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.). Overall, we believe the signs of a slowing economy and stress in the financial system indicate policy rates are close to reaching their peak. We expect the tone of central banks to get incrementally less hawkish in the coming months. This should prove to be a tailwind for risk assets, in our view.

By Cyndy Batchelor, FMA, BCom Financial Advisor, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning | Assante Capital Management Ltd. How many times have you received a phone call to have your ducts cleaned, a text from the Revenue Agency or an email claiming you have an inheritance in the past week? Recently my mom was targeted by what is referred to as the “Grandparent Scam”. She received a phone call and the caller said “Hi Grandma it is me”, to which she of course replied with one of my kids’ names. Now having some personal information, the caller was able to hold a conversation with her. He told her he was in trouble and needed her to send funds immediately to be bailed out of jail for being caught with his friend who had pot in the car. Luckily, my mom is tight with her money and had the presence to tell “my kid” to call his dad to meet him at the police station. My grandfather immediately phoned my son to ensure all was indeed ok (it was!) and relay the story. My kid delightfully informed my parents that since pot is now legal, he would never have been arrested for having it in a car (even I did not think of that!) and if they were carrying enough pot to be arrested then $1000 was not going to get them out of jail. In the meantime, we have now extended our safe word to my parents – I let them know if they ever thought my kids (or us!) were calling to ask for the safe word. If we cannot deliver the safe word, then it is not us on the other end of the phone. This is only one type of scam that is currently being used. You may get asked to provide advance payment for services, have your credit cards or other personal information used without your consent or knowledge, or end up the victim of a romance scam. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it likely is. If someone you meet online asks for money or personal information, it is time to abandon ship. What can you do to protect yourself? Credit Monitoring - there are several free credit monitoring sites, sign up and check frequently Malware and antivirus protection on your devices Don’t store your credit card information on any sites (this includes vendors) Use complex passwords & clear your browser history Don’t click on any links in texts or emails and review senders Create a safe word Don’t use unsecured public Wi-Fi You should also ensure you have a Trusted Contact Person on file with your financial institutions. A trusted contact person (TCP) is someone your advisor can reach out to if they are concerned you are being financially exploited or are making poor decisions because of diminished mental capacity. For example, they may notice transactions or financial decisions that are unusual based on your past behaviour. If you need to add or update a Trusted Contact Person, please reach out to your Financial Advisor. Cyndy Batchelor is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.258.1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

After a positive start to the year in January, the month of February jolted financial market participants out of complacency as macroeconomic concerns made a comeback. Investors had to make a quick adjustment from expectations of a ‘soft-landing or no-landing’ scenario to a potential ‘hard landing’ scenario and the retreat was most pronounced in the best performing areas of January. In a classic case of ‘good news is bad news’, the stronger-than-expected economic data put together with hotter-than-expected inflation measures renewed investors concerns that expectations of policy rate pivot might be premature. The apathy towards the hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, soon disappeared as jobs and inflation data corroborated the earlier message that the Central Bank’s work is far from over. The headline inflation number in the US was at +6.4%, though down from +6.5%, but higher than expected +6.2%. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation indicated by the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index also jumped to +5.4% against the expected and prior number of +5.0%. This, along with better-than-expected retail sales of +3.0% month-over-month against the expected +2.0%, and lower-than-expected jobless claims at ~192k against the expected ~200k, provided support to the notion that consumer demand is still healthy, and the job market remains too strong. In Canada, however, the headline inflation number reported during the month tracked better and fell to +5.9% from +6.3%. Taking note of the recent data and continued hawkish message from the US Central bank authorities, the equity and fixed income markets retreated after investors discounted the possibility of more rate hikes and higher interest rates for longer. This was evident from the probability of interest rates (implied by the Fed Funds Futures data) by the end of this year in the range of 5.25%-5.50% increased to ~38.5% as of the end of February from almost negligible as at the end of January (See Figure 1). The bond yields jumped by ~40-to-60 basis points in the US and ~40-to-48 basis in Canada across the 2-yr to 10-yr tenures. Figure 1: Target rate probabilities for December 2023 The higher the interest rates and longer they stay at the level, the more strain there is on economic activity, ultimately leading to an economic recession. Given that the monetary policy tightening works with long and variable lag, the case for recent strength in economic data to dissipate can be made, in our view. A few leading indicators (e.g., Consumer Confidence and The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers’ Index) are already signalling a contraction ahead. We believe the softening of economic data coupled with receding inflation could prove to be a tailwind for risk assets. Nevertheless, the pace of change of narrative from January to February underscores our belief that the path ahead is likely to stay bumpy for some time and therefore we advocate staying selective in risk asset exposures.

By Sarah Chisholm, BA Financial Advisor, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning | Assante Capital Management Ltd. At first the concept of a retirement number seems simple enough. A specific sum of money or a ratio of previous income to tell you how much you need for retirement. Unfortunately, there is no universal number or ratio that you can use. Every retirement cashflow is very much unique to the individual and their family. Take a moment to consider, if you and your spouse went to a local restaurant and ordered dinner what would the bill be? What if your neighbors went to the same restaurant and ordered dinner? Would their bill be the exact same? That would be extremely unlikely as people have different food and drink preferences. Retirement planning needs to be customized to the individual or family; there are too many variables for a one size fits all number or ratio. Of the many variables it is important to consider: lifestyle expenses, life expectancy, sources of income and risk tolerance. For lifestyle expenses, consider: 1. What do I currently spend on my lifestyle expenses? 2. What will I do with my free time in retirement? Will I be travelling or investing in a new hobby? 3. Are there legacy goals I would like to achieve while living or in my estate? 4. What impact will inflation have on my cost of living during retirement? Understanding your projected expenses in retirement helps give you a framework for your retirement planning. Another major piece is life expectancy: 1. At what age will I retire? 2. Am I currently healthy? 3. Do I have a family history of longevity? Health can impact both the length of your life and the cost of maintaining your lifestyle. Poor health could result in high long-term care costs, or it could mean a shortened life expectancy. What does retirement look like if you live to age 80 versus if you live to age 95? Will I have health benefits coverage? No one has a crystal ball, but planning around different scenarios will build a buffer into your retirement plan. Now that you have an idea of your expenses and the length of your retirement. How will you fund your retirement plan? 1. What income will I have in retirement? 2. Am I entitled to any government pensions or social benefits or workplace pension? 3. What investments can I draw on or what assets can I sell? Analyzing your expected Old Age Security benefits and your Canada Pension Plan income can be a enlightening process. Did you realize that your CPP entitlement is based on your CPP contributions throughout your working career whereas OAS is a residency-based benefit? What other investments or assets will you have in retirement? Are you contributing to a Registered Retirement Savings Plan or a Tax Free Savings Account for retirement? Will you generate cash flow through rental properties? The growth in your investment accounts will depend on your investment approach. What fixed income/equity allocation do you hold and what are the expected returns? What contributions are you currently making to your investments, and do you need to increase those contributions to secure your retirement plan? Retirement is a period to relax and enjoy the fruits of your labor. Make sure you prioritize planning for your retirement so that you can truly find that peace and serenity. Consider sitting with a trusted financial advisor to track down your retirement “number.” Sarah Chisholm is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.258.1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

Since our last update, the most important developments for the North American markets have been the monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. Bank of Canada raised policy rates by 25 basis points to bring them to +4.50% and announced its intention to pause the further hikes. Tiff Macklem, the governor of Bank of Canada, said that the pause was contingent on the economy evolving in line with expectations, including inflation dropping to ~+3% by mid-year. The US Federal Reserve also raised policy rates by 25 basis points to bring policy rates in the US to +4.75%. The US Fed chair, Jerome Powell, maintained the message that their work is far from over, as the current inflation readings remain high and the job market is still very tight. Further, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) expects a couple more hikes before considering a pause. Notwithstanding the hawkish message, the US Fed Chair acknowledged that the disinflationary process has begun, and was not very forthcoming to pushback on the recent easing of financial conditions driven by run up in capital markets. Overall, Mr. Powell’s stance of a reluctant hawk, i.e., the impression of lack of conviction to keep monetary conditions tight, was read by the market participants that a change in policy stance is likely nearby, in our opinion. Year-to-date, the capital markets have been off to a good start on expectations of a policy pivot as inflation readings have continued to cool off their highs. The inflation reading for Canada fell to +6.3% in December (reported in January) from +6.8% in November (reported in December) and in the US fell to +6.5% in December (reported in January) from +7.1% in November (reported in December). This, put together with a lack of any pushback from the US Fed chair and the indicated pause in the policy rates hikes by Bank of Canada, has fanned the risk-on sentiment among investors. However, it is noteworthy that the year-to-date rally has been concentrated on the companies that were hit the hardest during the year 2022 (See Figure 1). Figure 1:S&P 500 Index Members, Price performance 2022 vs Year-to-date While several of these companies are still down significantly from their highs during the last year, indicating recovery potential on a return to normal, we believe the macro environment of 2023 warrants a selective approach. As the high inflation and policy rates narrative gradually fades, growth narrative will begin to take over and therefore companies will have to deliver on revenue and earnings growth expectations to sustain the stock price performance. Given that the impact of high interest rates has just begun to work its way through the economy, many of these companies could find it difficult to meet their revenue and earnings expectations. Furthermore, the latest readings on the unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly falling to +3.4% from +3.5% and the ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) jumping back to expansion territory (55.2 in January) from contraction territory (49.6 in December) could force Central Banks to rethink any potential change in policy stance. Though the recent change in Central Banks’ tone is positive and strengthens the case for adding risk-on exposure, we believe investors need to be mindful of bumps in the road ahead.

By Cole Seabrook Financial Advisor, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning | Assante Capital Management Ltd. One solution to help individuals grow their wealth overtime, while maximizing the timing into the market is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). What is dollar cost averaging? Dollar cost averaging is when you invest a fixed sum of money on a regular basis, regardless of the market conditions. This strategy helps individuals develop a disciplined savings and investing habit over time. How does dollar cost averaging work? In most cases when individuals are dollar cost averaging into the market, it is done automatically through a direct deposit from their bank account to their investment account, making the transactions seamless. By dollar cost averaging, you are buying more when prices are lower and less when prices are higher, depending on the market price of the shares/units. Over the course of time this strategy could lower your overall cost per share/unit compared to what it may have been if you purchase the investment in one larger lumpsum. What are the benefits of dollar cost averaging? While you may be reducing your cost per share/unit, there are many other benefits to consider when implementing the DCA strategy. One of the major benefits is establishing savings and investing habits. Because in most cases the contributions are set up automatically, over a period of time individuals are accustom to the money being transferred to an investment account on specific days of the month. When implementing the dollar cost averaging strategy, individuals are less likely to miss the money they are investing while establishing discipline to stick to their financial plan. In addition to developing good habits, it keeps individuals open for investment opportunities when in down markets or experiencing high volatility. In summary, dollar cost averaging is a great low-cost strategy for individuals who do not have excess funds or are looking to compound their savings while keeping a steady cash flow for their day-to-day expenses. It is a great way of saving and investing on a regular basis to help individuals achieve their short & long-term financial goals. If you are looking to start saving/investing for your future financial goals or, have questions around best strategies for your individual financial situation, the team at O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning would be more than happy to sit down and have a conversation to help you stay on track. Cole Seabrook is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact him at 613.258.1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

By Cyndy Batchelor, FMA, BCom Financial Advisor, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning | Assante Capital Management Ltd. A critical illness is more common than you think. A serious, life-altering illness affects one in three Canadians in their lifetime. One in two Canadians will be diagnosed with some form of cancer in their lives. How are you able to manage the risk protection against a serious illness? A Critical Illness Policy allows you to manage this risk and protect yourself, your family, and your assets against the unpredictability of getting critically sick or injured. Critical Illness Insurance can allow you to focus on your recovery knowing that you have the money to help with costs of a serious illness. A CI policy is an excellent complement to the provincial health care plan because the amount paid can allow you to: Replace your income, or even your spouse’s income so that he or she can take time off work to accompany you during your treatments Pay for assistance at home Pay for medications not covered by provincial health insurance Pay the costs of treatment abroad Continue repaying financial obligations such as your mortgage Take a much-needed break after medical treatment before returning to work full-time Additionally, a CI policy can ensure that you don’t have to dip into your retirement savings or investments to cover these extra costs. Some Critical Illness policies will also offer additional benefits to holders and family members of the policies. These include access to expert medical assistance. This expert assistance can help you by: Providing a second opinion on your diagnosis Helping you to understand medical conditions Explaining your treatment options and Helping you navigate the healthcare system Supplementary assistance can also be provided and include: Counselling services Family support services (childcare or home care) Legal and financial consultations Nutritional advice I am often asked, is a Critical Illness policy really worth it? What happens if I don’t get sick? My favourite benefit that can be included as an option in a Critical Illness policy is known as a return-of-premium benefit. If you remain healthy and don’t have the need to use your policy, after as early as 10 years, you may choose to get your money back. If you do elect to use this option, your policy then expires. Contact your Financial Advisor today to discuss Critical Illness Insurance options. We welcome questions so please reach out! See our ad in this week’s North Grenville Times and follow us on Facebook @OFarrellWealth. Cyndy Batchelor is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.258.1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. Insurance products and services are provided through Assante Estate and Insurance Services Inc.

By Sarah Chisholm, BA Financial Advisor, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning | Assante Capital Management Ltd. As a business owner you are constantly faced with challenging decisions. What expenditures will help your business grow? What strategic changes can you make? What will add value to your operation? January is the season of annual general meetings and crop conferences for farmers across Ontario. Having attended a few different meetings, one common thread has the importance of evaluating the return on investment for cropping decisions. Does extra fertilizer add value? What about more spraying or using a different seed? Each of these extras adds to the input costs for the crop, but does it add value? Farmers track their own data with new technology, and they rely on experts and researchers who run trials throughout the year to provide tests results. Taking the time to assess the return on investment is a great practice for any business owner whether they be a farmer, crop consultant or any retail/commercial business. For any business owners out there, grab your favourite cup of tea or coffee and start thinking about Return on Investment (ROI). Focusing on Return-on-Investment means looking at your inputs and analyzing which ones have added value. For farmers this could be the cost for the extra round of spraying – did it increase yields or did the larger combine reduce labour costs? For another business, it might mean looking at marketing expenses from last year to see which advertisements or events were the most successful and to what extent. The best time to start looking at your return on investment is now. Start now and know that it will get easier as you begin to understand what inputs you need to track in order to make the analysis. For most businesses, marketing is a great place to start your analysis. If you broke down all your marketing costs, are you able to track exactly where specific advertisements or events added value? If not, is there a way to update your tracking systems to make it easier to collect the information? Having the information allows you to make informed decisions on which marketing practices to invest in and which ones to leave behind. Consider another return on investment – rest and relaxation. As a business owner, you may feel tied down by the business and always wanting it to improve it. Do you find it difficult to step away from the business for a vacation? January is a great time to look back at your vacation and time off from 2022. Did you take enough time off to truly feel relaxed? Did you experience any burnout in 2022? It may seem counter intuitive but try booking more time off in 2023. Test out the return on investment for rest and relaxation. How much more efficient can you be in 2023 if you have quality time off? Return on Investment is a simple calculation if you have the data. So, start thinking about what ROI calculations you can analyze now and which ones you would like to run. Take a cue from our Ontario farmers and start implementing processes to collect the data and build ROI into your regular business calendar. A trusted financial advisor can help steer you towards which ROI calculation will bring the most value to your business practices. We welcome questions so please reach out! See our ad in this week’s North Grenville Times and follow us on Facebook @OFarrellWealth. Sarah Chisholm is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.258.1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

The theme of last month's trading could be the theme that prevails in the markets for the next few months. Lower-than-expected inflation numbers combined with stronger-than-expected economic data raised investors’ hopes for a soft landing or only a mild recession. Investor optimism on these developments faded amid cautious remarks from Central Banks. In the US, the headline inflation rate dropped to +7.1% in November (reported in December) from +7.7% in October (reported in November). This was lower than the expected +7.3%. Canada saw inflation rates of +6.8% for November, down from +6.9% in October. The ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), a gauge of the US services sector, rose unexpectedly to +56.5. A reading above 50 indicates activity is expected to expand, while a reading below 50 indicates the activity is anticipated to contract. The unemployment rate in the US at +3.7% and in Canada at +5.1% indicates a marginal increase from previous months, however, remains well below historical levels. The above data supports the notion that inflation can potentially cool off without harming the economy in a major way. However, authorities at the Federal Reserve continue to exercise caution that lowering defences against inflation prematurely could cause inflation expectations to become entrenched and result in a bigger problem in the coming years. The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), decided to raise policy rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting, and their “Summary of Economic Projections” showed that the participants expect policy rates to rise to 5.25% in 2023 (from +4.50% at present) and stay there for the entire year. The Fed's major concern is that a strong job market indicates wage inflation, which may continue to fan broad inflationary pressures. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has come off its recent highs but remains high in the historical context (See Figure 1). We acknowledge that, at this juncture, the Federal Reserve is right to be cautious in their approach given the strong jobs market; however, we remain optimistic that the wage inflation scare might not turn out to be as bad as expected. The major wage surveys indicate that wage inflation pressures could moderate in the coming months (See Figure 2). Figure 1: Job markets remain strong from historical perspective Figure 2: Wage inflation expectations are trending down Additionally, we are encouraged by the fact that: a) energy prices have dropped from their recent highs; b) the pandemic-induced frictions in supply chains are fading; and c) bottlenecks in the manufacturing supply chain may further ease as the Chinese government softens its stance on the zero-Covid policy. This could mean that inflation surprises to the downside in the coming months, in our view. Reset of investors’ expectations after corporations release their earnings and outlooks, and the Central Banks maintaining the hawkish tone until inflation numbers decline meaningfully, indicates market volatility might remain elevated. That said, during 2022, investors’ sentiment has moved from ‘irrational exuberance’ to ‘healthy skepticism’ and asset valuations are now more reasonable. This put together with a potential change in the Central Banks’ hawkish rhetoric later in the year means the investing environment for 2023 will present opportunities for long-term investors. We wish our readers a very Happy New Year 2023!