Life is rolling along. You have a loving partner and two adorable children. You and your partner have good jobs, and the kids are in school. You save for annual trips, retirement, and your kids’ education. What happens if something throws your plans awry? Unfortunately, the risk of a serious life-altering illness is quite high. Take for example, the imaginary couple Jane (age 40) and John (age 41) Smith from above. According to Canada Life’s “Know Your Risk Calculator” this couple has a 22% chance that one of them will become critically ill before age 65. Furthermore, as medical research advances, they are more likely to survive a serious cancer, heart attack or other disease. What would happen if Jane suffered a heart attack and ended up in the hospital for several weeks? How would this impact their day-to-day life? The answer would be different for every family, but you might expect John to take time off work and need to rely on family or babysitters to care for the two kids. There would be travel costs to the hospital – gas, parking, and meals. Specialized care may require travel, hotel bills and rental car expenses. On the health side there will be new medication costs and rehabilitation costs as Jane begins to recover. How might they cover these costs? John and Jane dip into their emergency fund, and as that runs out where do they turn? A line of credit or credit cards would be a short-term solution, and then they may need to start redeeming funds from their retirement funds (RRSP or TFSA). Above and beyond the emergency fund, none of these options are great. They all begin to impact the trips, education funds and retirement goals that the family had planned. What if Jane had a critical illness policy? What if 30 days after having her heart attack she received a lump sum payment from the insurance company that she could use at her full discretion? Ask one of our Financial Advisors how critical illness can enhance your financial plan by acting as a safety net for your family. https://planningtools.ca/know-your-risk/risk-calculator.php The case study mentioned in this presentation is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not represent an actual client or an actual client’s experience, but rather is meant to provide an example of our process and methodology. The results portrayed is not representative of all of our clients’ experiences. Sarah Chisholm is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.774.2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.

Scams are on the rise. You hear horror stories often that life savings have been lost because scammers convince individuals that their family is in trouble and needs help. Another scam out there states that you are registered in a criminal case because you are evading your tax bill & are fraudulent. Scams are everywhere and becoming harder to detect. They can be devastating to your financial situation and your emotional wellbeing. Cybercriminals are becoming more sophisticated and always thinking of new ways to defraud people. It is so important to recognize the signs and know how to protect you and your family from becoming a victim of scams. Consider the following to protect yourself: Do not trust anything! Be wary if you receive an email, call, or text message that you are not expecting, or from someone you do not know. You can always ask someone you trust to take a look if you are unsure. Be cautious of email attachments and links. Often times, cybercriminals use email attachments and links that can lead to harmful websites and that cause you to download malicious software to gain access to your files and personal information. List a trusted contact person (TCP) on your financial accounts. This has become standard across the financial services industry. Naming a trusted contact person can be extremely valuable as an added layer of protection for you. This is someone your Advisor can reach out to for numerous reasons (e.g., if they feel you are unfit to act for yourself, cannot get in touch with you, and if they feel you may be the victim of a scam). It is important to note that your TCP cannot act as your power of attorney and does not have the same rights (i.e., cannot gain information or act on your accounts). Remember, take extra care to make sure that you and your loved ones are protected from fraudsters. Allison Martin is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.774.2456 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your particular circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.

Perhaps the most important development of the past few days has been major central banks finally embarking on the rate cuts cycle after starting to increase them about two years ago. Bank of Canada delivered its first cut on 5th June 2024 by reducing the policy rate to +4.75% from +5.00% and European Central Bank followed the next day on 6th June 2024 with reduction in its deposit policy rate to +3.75% from +4.00%. Swiss National Bank and Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) had already delivered first policy rate cuts in March 2024. After a long wait of more than two years, when Bank of Canada started increasing interest rates in the March of 2022, investors can finally look forward to policy easing and thus potentially lesser headwinds for capital markets. Canadian economy is relatively more leveraged and hence more sensitive to the interest rates as compared to the United States. The expectations of the rate cut in the June meeting had built up further after the first quarter GDP growth was registered at +1.7%, much below the forecast of +2.8%. The unemployment in Canada has been inching up and has reached +6.2% for May (reported in June) (See figure 1). The governor of Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stated that it is reasonable to expect further cuts to policy rates provided inflation continues to ease and the confidence that inflation is headed sustainably to the target 2% continues to increase. However, he also cautioned that pace is likely to be slower. Figure 1: Canada Unemployment rate, % Source: Statistics Canada, Bloomberg The message from the authorities of the United States Federal reserve remains unchanged so far where they seek more evidence that inflation is headed towards the goal of 2%. Mixed economic data with somewhat higher-than-expected headline inflation prints during the past few months has forced the Fed to adopt a relatively hawkish tone as compared to other central banks, in our opinion. Divergent policies will have implications on the currency markets and thus we believe either the Federal Reserve will follow the lead of other central banks soon or the other central banks will have to delay the next rate cut, should the data in the United States forces the Federal Reserve’s hand to wait for longer. We note that the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has been indicating contraction in the activity in the US and the ISM Services PMI has been indicating an expansion (See figure 2). An index level above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 indicates contraction. Given that services sector constitutes majority (~78%) of the United States GDP, it is fair to say that on a balance the US economy has been strong. The unemployment rate in the United States too has been below 4% though job openings have been on a decline and initial jobless claims increasing, indicating some deterioration. Figure 2: ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs Source: Bloomberg Overall, we think that the advent of policy rate cuts by global central banks is a positive development for the markets, however, the mixed economic data in the United States still raises a question mark on the timing of first rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Year-to-date, the fixed income markets have wavered as expectations of the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve fluctuated from as early as the June meeting to as late as December meeting. Looking ahead, incremental policy clarity from the world’s central banks could set the stage for reduced volatility in the bond markets, in our view.

Every Federal Budget announcement tends to focus on one central tax consideration that draws the attention of Canadians.  On April 16th, 2024, the Government of Canada released its 2024 Budget and interest surrounding the capital gains inclusion rate garnered significant attention because of noteworthy changes and potential planning opportunities. Under current tax rules, when an individual disposes of a capital property (excluding your principal residence) for a profit, only half (50%) of the capital gain is included in your taxable income. Effective June 25th, 2024, the capital gain inclusion rate will increase to 2/3 (66.7%) of capital gains realized on any amount above $250,000. This means that capital gains realized under $250,000 as of June 25th, 2024, will remain at the 50% inclusion rate. Corporations and trusts have no tax threshold and all capital gains earned as of June 25th, 2024, will be subject to the 2/3 (66.7%) inclusion of income. The delay in implementing the increase in the capital gains inclusion rate to June 25, 2024, allows individuals, corporations and trusts the opportunity to capture their capital gains at the 50% inclusion rate. Triggering these gains prior to the June 25, 2024, deadline may save a significant amount of tax but there are other factors to consider as it pertains to an individual’s financial plan. The 2024 Federal Budget announcement to increase the capital gains inclusion rate has generated a lot of attention and questions surrounding the financial plans of many Canadians. In continuing to proactively plan, it is important that you discuss your unique financial situation with your financial advisors so that they may provide a recommendation of the potential tax impact of the 2024 Federal Budget.

“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” – James Carville, Political Strategist Global bond markets are larger in size than the global equity markets and since the representation of institutional investors is greater in the global bond markets as compared to the equity markets, bond markets price action is considered more calculative and unemotional. Market pundits therefore often look at the bond markets for cues to gauge what might transpire in the equity markets. Equity markets tend to be more volatile and usually move very fast along with the developing narratives. However, equity markets typically do not stay in disagreement with bond markets for too long. For the first quarter of the year, equity markets marched ahead in anticipation of the nearing policy pivot and support from better-than-expected earnings growth reported by corporates. Bond markets, however, continued to reel under the pressure of rising yields as expectations of policy rate cuts continued to recede on the back of higher-than-expected inflation readings and better-than-expected economic data. As the inflation data persisted, equity markets finally took notice in the month of April and the S&P 500 Index corrected by -5.5% and the S&P TSX Index corrected by about -3.2%. Better-than-expected earnings, however, from the index heavyweights put together with reporting of more benign economic data during the second half of the month brought the equity investors back to the markets. In the United States, April was the third consecutive month where the reported headline inflation came in higher-than-expected. At +3.5% for March (reported in April), the headline inflation was ahead of the expected +3.4% and rose from +3.2% for February (reported in March). For Canada, the number was less concerning as though the headline inflation advanced to +2.9% in March (reported in April) from +2.8% in February (reported in March); it was in line with the expectations and had been falling for the previous two months. The bond markets bore the brunt of disappointing data on inflation as bond yields jumped on both sides of the border. Year-to-date, the yield curves have continued to shift upwards in the United States and Canada (See Figure 1 and 2), disappointing the investors that had bought aggressively into the “bonds are back” narrative of late 2023. Figure 1: United States – Yield Curve (1st Jan 2024 to 8th May 2024) Source: Bloomberg Figure 2: Canada – Yield Curve (1st Jan 2024 to 8th May 2024) Source: Bloomberg The heightened bond volatility and its increased correlation with equity markets during the times of market stress has further raised questions whether Mr. Bond’s usefulness in multi asset portfolios is on a decline?  A sustainable decline in bond yields is a precondition for the asset class to reassert its importance in the portfolios which we think will be met if: a) inflation resumes is downward trajectory without signs of incremental stress on the economic growth; and/or b) economic growth decelerates, unemployment rises, and therefore the probability of policy rate cuts increases again. In the absence of these signs, the bond yields are likely to stay choppy with the ebb and flow of economic data and Central Banks’ guidance, in our view. In the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the committee decided to hold the interest rates at +5.50%. Bank of Canada too held the policy rate at +5.0%. The United States Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, noticed that the recent data suggests the progress on inflation has stalled, however, cited several reasons why he remains optimistic that inflation will be back under control. Labor market is coming back to a better balance and expectations that the contribution of shelter inflation component of inflation calculations will eventually decline as current rents paid begin to reflect in the CPI calculations are the reasons to stay optimistic that “sticky inflation” narrative might not stick for long. The FOMC committee also decided to taper off the quantitative tightening by deciding to reduce the runoff to $25 billion in Treasury bonds each month from the current $60 billion per month from 1 June 2024. This did provide support to the bond markets during early May so far, however, in the current environment, we think continued progress on inflation and/or deterioration in the economic growth and hence a shift in policy rates are the conditions where the narrative of “bonds are back” can hold sustainably.

We often receive questions surrounding the savings aspect of a RESP. There are also many considerations when it comes to withdrawing those funds and budgeting for your child to attend school.  Over the past 24 years, tuition at Ontario Universities has risen over 150% or 6.5% annually, far surpassing the Canadian inflation rate during that same period.  This does not include the cost of housing for students which, depending on the city, can be twice as much as tuition. First, you need to manage expectations.  Sit down with your child and go over the plan, the costs, and the funds available for their education.  Discuss with them what they will be contributing and what you will be contributing.  It is important to remember that school, especially in the first year, is a full-time job. Some kids may not be able to commit to working very much during the school year and may not be able to earn any extra income until the summer months. Plan out a budget.  Withdrawn funds from the RESP (Grant and Growth) are taxable to the child while the original contributions in the RESP are non-taxable.  Plan to take the funds out of the RESP over the planned years of education so that taxation is not onerous and to ensure you are not leaving any money left in the RESP at the end of the education period (unless it is a family plan and there are more children who will be attending school). Work with your child to create a suitable need and wants budget.  They should be able to enjoy these years, but they should also have some skin in the game if they want to do a lot of the extras.  Make sure to include items like travel, groceries, cell phone, entertainment, rent, utilities, tuition, laundry, and insurance. If your child has earned any scholarships and is attending school full time, those scholarships will not be taxable. If they are attending school part time or don’t complete their semester/year, those scholarships will be taxable. Be a voice of reason.  Newfound freedom brings adventures and activities to take part in.  As parents, we want our kids to be responsible and have autonomy, but we also need to ensure they are safe and don’t get caught up in something that could deplete their education funds.  Be aware, communicate, and educate them about scams and fraud.  Work together to make sure their bank accounts are monitored. If you have questions about RESPs or budgeting, you can reach out to your Financial Advisor.

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed fixed income investors recalibrating their expectations of about six to seven policy rate cuts in the United States to about three at the end of the quarter. While the adjustment was a disappointment for fixed income investors, who have been waiting for a consistent and positive contribution from the asset class for some time, the equity markets continued to cheer the prospects of finally turning the corner on policy rates and improving economic growth. The North American equity markets saw consecutive gains for the first three months of the year. The month of March was also in green, however, leading the charge were the cyclical Energy sector and Materials sector as against the Information Technology sector and Communications Services sector during the first two months. Commodity prices have increased (See Figure 1), driven by higher demand, indicating an improving global economic outlook. In the latest readings, the US Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (50.3 for March 2024) and China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (50.8 for March 2024) have both jumped above 50, corroborating the narrative that manufacturing activity is on the mend (See Figure 2). A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity and a reading below 50 indicates contracting activity. China is the world’s largest consumer of commodities and improving manufacturing in China typically has had a disproportionate impact on commodities prices. However, for the markets fixated on the policy rates trajectory, any data point that reads through as policy rate cuts might get delayed, gets discounted as bad news. Higher commodity prices also read through as return of goods inflation and thus potential delay of policy rate cuts, which has caused some jitters in the markets. The recent jump in the crude oil prices driven by: a) the decision by OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to extend the production cuts for the first half of 2024; b) escalation of geopolitical tensions in the middle east; and c) improving demand given the global economic acceleration, has increased the risk that headline inflation numbers might disappoint in the near-term. Figure 1: Commodity prices have started to move higher. Commodity Research Bureau BLS/US Spot All Commodities (April 2021 to April 2024) Source: Bloomberg Figure 2: Manufacturing activity is back in expansionary territory. US ISM Manufacturing PMI and China Manufacturing PMI (March 2020 to March 2024) Source: Bloomberg The economic data has been more supportive to the case of policy rate cuts in Canada where inflation declined to +2.8% in February (reported in March) from +2.9% in January (reported in February) and unemployment rate also advanced to +5.8% in February (reported in March) and again to +6.10% in March (reported in April) from +5.70% in January (reported in February). The data in the US has not been as supportive for the case of policy rate cuts. The headline inflation reaccelerated to +3.2% in February (reported in March) from +3.1% in January (reported in February) and unemployment rate advanced to +3.9% in February (reported in March) from +3.7% in January (reported in February) but declined again to +3.8% in March (reported in April). The strength in the US economic data has led the fixed income investors to reduce their expectations of rate cuts as evident from the CME Group’s Fed Funds Futures data. The probability of no rate cuts during the June meeting advanced from 0% as of 31 January 2024 to ~50.8% as of 5 April 2024 (see figure 3). Figure 3: Expectations of no rate cuts during the June meeting have increased. Target rate probabilities for June Fed meeting (31 Jan 2024 vs 5 April 2024) Source: The CME Group Sticky inflation could necessitate higher interest rates and for longer, which in turn will increase the risk of damage to the economy. Layering on the fact that the historical precedents of central banks’ ability to control inflation by hiking interest rates without triggering a recession are rare, seems to suggest that this mission looks impossible. However, we think the jury is still out on this and maintain our constructive outlook towards the global economy and risk assets. Our optimism is underpinned by our belief that central banks in the current era have learnt from the mistakes committed in the past and stand a better chance of reacting and fending off the adverse impact of any missteps. The timely resolution of regional banks crisis last March is a case in point. Furthermore, while the headline data does suggest labor market in the United States is on a strong footing, several datapoints suggest incremental weakening under the hood. This bolsters our belief that the strength in the labor market is just enough to suggest a growing economy but falls short of indicating an economy running hot and therefore inflationary. The ratio of total job openings to people looking for full time employment has been on a decline and the ‘US quits rate’, a measure of voluntary job separations initiated by the employee, has also been on a decline (see figure 4). Overall, we think the balance of economic data is consistent with the view of the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, who recently stated that the latest data, despite somewhat stronger than expected, is in line with their expectations and does not derail the case of beginning to lower policy rates at some point during this year. Figure 4: Labor market is moving to better balance. Ratio of US job openings to unemployed looking for full time employment and the US quits rate (February 2018 to February 2024) Source: Bloomberg

In our day and age, mental health has become a prominent issue. The world continues to evolve to combat the rising struggle of mental health. Many individuals face challenges when trying to manage mental health symptoms, like anxiety and depression. A body of research has emerged in which the objective is to better understand the connection between Financial and Mental well-being. In this study, a few key findings have been uncovered: People are generally stressed, and finances are a prominent concern. Financial challenges often lead to mental health challenges. Not everyone responds to these challenges the same. We often look at stress as a way of life, but what happens when that stress rises to the point that we have trouble functioning and going about our daily tasks? The following are some recognizable examples; “How will we make ends meet with rising inflation?” “I didn’t get the wage increase at work that I was expecting.” “I received an unexpected bill, and this is a terrible time.” “My investments are way down, and I’m planning to retire next year.” “My credit card is maxed out.” These are just some of the common issues that we see people facing in their lives. These issues can negatively affect us emotionally. But what if there were recommendations to help combat the effect that our finances can have on our psyche? Here are a few ideas: Have a Plan and Budget. Create a budget and a plan for your household. Regularly review your budget and plan with your spouse or those involved in the household financial decision making. Seek Counseling. People seek counseling in this day and age for all sorts of reasons. Over the last couple of years, we have seen an increase in the services available in our local communities. Counseling can be a productive way to manage our stress and help find solutions to our current situations. Turn Down the Markets. Looking at the markets and one’s investments on a regular basis can trigger stress and cause concern. It is beneficial to schedule regular financial reviews throughout the year with your financial advisor. Worrying over daily market changes can create overall discomfort and unease. Work with a Financial Advisor. Guidance from a professional can have a lasting impact. A Financial Advisor can help you create a budget, manage your finances, and set financial goals. This can allow you to live the life you want today and secure the legacy you want for tomorrow. Self-Care. Exercise, meditation, and indulging in our interests and hobbies can help us reduce our stress levels and help us to manage our finances with greater confidence, which can help us make better financial decisions. It is important to remember that our mental health and financial wellbeing have a significant impact on one another. If we take the time to manage both, this can lead us to a healthier place mentally and a more productive place financially. Source:https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/03/14/the-connection-between-financial-well-being-and-mental-health/?sh=5db2e505a630

The month of February was a mixed bag in North America for investors from an asset class performance perspective. While equities continued their impressive upward march with the S&P 500 Index advancing by ~+5.2% and S&P TSX by ~+1.6%, the fixed income asset class bore the brunt of jump in bond yields on both sides of the border.  The bond yields jumped by ~+35-43 basis points for the 2-year to10-year tenures across the yield curve in the US after the US inflation surprised to the upside and investors factored in that perhaps the expectations of number of interest rate cuts through the year are too optimistic. The jump in bond yields was relatively less pronounced on the Canadian side where bond yields jumped by ~+5-to-22 basis points across the 2-year to 10-year tenures. Inflation in the US declined to +3.1% in January (reported in February) from +3.4% in December (reported in January) but was higher than the expected +2.9%. Inflation in Canada declined to +2.9% in January (reported in February) from +3.4% in December (reported in January and was lower than the expected +3.3%. At the beginning of the month, the Fed Funds Futures were implying rates to drop from +5.50% to +3.86% in the United States, suggesting ~6 rate cuts of 25 basis points each through the year. This was in contrast with the guidance from the Federal Reserve as indicated in the Federal Open Markets Committee’s (FOMC) dots plot, that indicated only about 3 rate cuts by the end of 2024 (See Figure 1). In other words, the expectations of the extent and speed of rate cuts baked in the Fed Funds Futures contracts implied the economy could experience a deep recession. Afterall, more rate cuts and at a faster pace would be required to support only if the economy was teetering under the weight of monetary tightening. On the contrary, the economic data had continued to suggest resilience even in the face of higher interest rates. The equity markets, on the other hand, continued to trade on expectations of a soft landing and a benign inflation scenario as the most likely outcome through the year 2024. This, put together with better-than-expected results from the corporates in general during the fourth quarter earnings season ensured that the equity markets registered healthy gains during the month, in our view. While the economic data during the month of February remained mixed, we think the fixed income markets have recalibrated expectations from bearish economic outlook more reasonably and equity markets are baking in an incrementally more bullish outlook. By the end of February 2024, the US Feds Funds Futures were showing less aggressive positioning of implied rates of ~4.48% (see Figure 1) as of December 2024 meeting (i.e. ~3 rate cuts) and many wall street strategists had increased their year-end price targets for the S&P 500 index. Figure 1: Implied rate – Fed Funds Futures and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Dots median Source: Bloomberg We think the reduction in the gap of expectations baked in by the markets and guidance from the Federal Reserve without much turbulence in the capital markets was a welcome development for the investors. That said, given that the economic data remains mixed overall, and the market positioning has skewed towards bullish once again, economic datapoints hinting at either too strong or too weak an economy could end the goldilocks environment (neither too hot nor too cold) and bring about the volatility in the capital markets over the short-term. Over the medium-to-long-term, the fact that Central Banks are now looking to cut interest rates rather than increase and investors remain laser focused on the policy trajectory, makes for a strong case to remain constructive on the risk assets.

In the realm of personal finance debt is a double-edged sword. Understanding the fundamental differences between good debt and bad debt is essential for making sound financial decisions.  Debt can be a valuable tool for building wealth but can also cause stressful financial situations. In general, good debt can help individuals increase their overall net worth or generate an income stream over time. Good debt is associated with acquiring an asset that has the potential to grow in value, such as a mortgage. Taking out a mortgage to buy a home allows individuals to build equity as the property appreciates in value, making it a strategic long-term investment. Once the debt has been paid off, the owners cash outflows will decrease. This will, in turn, allow the owners to reallocate these funds elsewhere to continue to grow their net worth. In addition, it will provide them with another resource to pull equity from, if needed. Bad debt is associated with non-appreciating assets or expenses that do not contribute to one’s financial growth. Credit card debt would be a primary example of bad debt. The high interest rates on credit cards can often turn manageable debt into a financial burden, which has the potential to cause financial stress. Understanding the differences between good and bad debt is essential for making informed financial decisions. When taking on debt there are several factors to evaluate. Do the potential long-term benefits outweigh the risks involved? To manage debt efficiently, individuals should create a budget that outlines their income, expenses, and debt. This will help individuals be more aware of their spending and borrowing in the future. Approaching debt strategically can be a stepping stone to financial success and can help facilitate important life milestones. It requires a careful balance and commitment to responsible financial management. By understanding the differences between good and bad debt, individuals can take a proactive approach to adopting financial habits that will point them in the direction of financial success.

In January, the North American equity markets saw positive momentum with the S&P-500 advancing ~+1.7% and the S&P-TSX by ~+0.5%. This increase stems from the market’s expectations that the Central Banks will pivot to cure rates sometime this year.  In contrast, fixed income markets lost some of the gains made over the last couple of months as investors scaled back on their optimism.  2–10-year bond yields advanced for most of the month on both sides of the border. Source: Bloomberg The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve held their policy meetings this month and decided to hold interest rates at current levels. Both banks acknowledged that they are determining at which point a reduction in interest rates maybe be feasible, however, as of now, it remains too early to start the easing cycle.  Investors’ expectations that rate cuts would start as early as March received push back from the US Fed chair, Jerome Powell, who stated that he does yet not think the Central Bank will have enough confidence on the inflation rate trajectory to start the rate cuts that soon. Investor skepticism was evident on the decreased probability of interest rates (implied by the Fed Funds Futures data) by March this year in the range of 5.25%-5.50% increased to ~85.0% as of 5th February from ~11.5% as at the end of December 2023 (See Figure 1). Figure 1. Target rate probabilities for March 2024 Source: The CME Group Better-than-expected economic data also corroborated the Central Bank’s guidance that the economy remains resilient enough to conclude the inflationary pressures. Stats to note: Inflation in Canada was in line with the expected +3.4% in December (reported in January), however, advanced from +3.1% in November (reported in December). Inflation in the US advanced to +3.4% in December (reported in January) from +3.1% in November (reported in December) and was ahead of expected +3.2%. The unemployment rate in the Canada remained flat at +5.8 % in January - against expectations of an increase to +5.9%. The unemployment rate in the US remained flat at +3.7% in January - against expectations of an increase to +3.8%. Source: Bloomberg While better-than-expected economic data is reducing the extent of rate cuts expected by markets, it is also improving the sentiment that the economy may avoid a severe economic contraction that can be typical after an interest rate hike cycle. Overall, we maintain our expectations of a constructive outcome for the year while remaining aware of the gap between markets expectations and the Central Banks’ actions. We are also considering that geopolitical tensions and elections across several key geographies across the globe could be a source of volatility.

Don’t be surprised! It may feel early in the year, but tax season is just around the corner. You may be wondering, how can I keep more of my hard-earned money in my pocket, instead of the government’s? There are many ways to reduce your taxes, there are several tax credits available to Canadians. Take into consideration some of the following options: Registered Retirement Savings Plan RRSP contributions can help to reduce your taxes owing. Make sure you have enough contribution room in order to avoid over contribution tax! Your available RRSP contribution room can be found on your Notice of Assessment. You can contribute to an RRSP until the end of the year you turn 71. The deadline to contribute for the 2023 tax year is February 29, 2024. Spousal Registered Retirement Savings Plan You can contribute to your spouse’s or common-law partner’s spousal RRSP; however, this means you must have available contribution room for this deposit as well! You can contribute to your spouse’s plan until the end of the year when they turn 71. Another important thing to keep in mind with spousal RRSPs is the 3-year attribution rule – meaning if a withdrawal is done from this account within that calendar year plus the following 2 years of the deposit, the withdrawal amount is attributed back to the contributor’s taxable income. Similar to the RRSP, the deadline to contribute for the 2023 tax year is February 29, 2024. First Home Savings Accounts The Federal Government started a new program in 2023, the First Home Savings Account. This program is designed to help individuals save for their first home. The contribution limit for 2023 is $8,000, and qualifying contributions are tax deductible, if they were made by December 31, 2023. Charitable Donations Cash donations made to an eligible charity can be claimed on your income tax. Typically, up to 75% of your net income can be claimed. There is a 15% credit for total donations up to $200; a 29% credit for total donations over $200 (that are ineligible for the 33% credit); and a 33% credit for total donations over $200, where your net income exceeds $246,752. Multigenerational Home Renovations In 2023, we saw the launch of a new tax credit, the Multigenerational Home Renovations. Eligible individuals can claim up to $50,000 in qualifying expenses for each qualifying renovation that was incurred after December 31, 2022 (but before the completion of the renovation). You can receive a tax credit of 15% of your costs; and the maximum credit is $7,500. Every person’s situation is unique, and there are other tax credits not mentioned above that may apply. We can work with you and your accountant, bookkeeper, or tax preparer to create a plan that works for you. Contact one of our Financial Advisors today to review your situation and see how we can help! Allison Martin is a Financial Advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Assante Capital Management Ltd. Please contact her at 613.258.1997 or visit ofarrellwealth.com to discuss your circumstances prior to acting on the information above. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.