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- A Dangerous Man
On September 28th, 2021, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, faced his most hostile hearing to date, in front of Congress, since his appointment in February 2018. The Chairman’s term expires on February 5th, 2022, and he is widely expected to be renominated for a second four-year term. However, his prospects, while still strong, seem to have diminished lately as more opposition from the Senate comes forward. (See Chart below) A democratic Senator, Elizabeth Warren, went on the record to say, “Over and over, you have acted to make our banking system less safe and that makes you a dangerous man to head up the Fed, and that’s why I will oppose your renomination”. She was referring to the fact that Powell has modified the rules that were enacted to make the Banking system more robust after the 2008 financial crisis. It is noteworthy that former congressmen Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, who drafted the Dodd-Frank act to tighten the bank rules in response to the 2008 crisis have endorsed renomination of Jerome Powell as a Fed chair for another term. Source: https://www.predictit.org/ Note: Methodology - market quote of the candidate as a % of sum of total candidate quotes. Stock markets have come to love Jerome Powell as he was the architect of a massive stimulatory response to help the economy rise out of challenges posed by the pandemic. Furthermore, markets have realised that with him at the helm as a Fed chair, they can expect pacifying messages to soothe market nerves even as the economic data begins to point to challenges ahead. While we can agree that inflation is the single most important risk facing the markets at present, given a reading consistently more than 5% since May 2021, we think wiring the policy response to inflation is even more important from a stock market perspective and Mr. Powell has learned to do this job extremely well. As a case in point, the median Fed dot plot in June 2021 indicated no interest rate hikes in 2022 and two interest rate hikes in 2023. The data during last 3 months was strong enough to sway median dot plot in September 2021 to indicate one interest rate hike in 2022 and three in 2023. The Fed also indicated it could start tapering of its bond buying program soon. While bond markets reacted to the hawkish shift by pushing the US 10yr bond yields up by ~20 bps between 22nd September and 30th September, the stock markets’ immediate reaction was positive as Powell insisted that the tapering timeline should not be seen as linked to the timeline of an increase in interest rates. Markets hate uncertainty and with any uncertainty of continuation of Jerome Powell’s as a Fed chair, the risk of policy uncertainty is increased. It was no surprise that the day he was termed “a dangerous man”, stock markets fell by ~2%. September in Review The stock markets gave back some of their year-to-date returns with S&P 500 falling by ~4.9% and S&P TSX falling by ~2.6% during the month. As per Bloomberg’s September economic survey, economists expect Canada’s GDP to grow at ~4% in 2022 and one interest rate hike by Bank of Canada in 2022. Canada concluded its snap election with the new house of commons looking pretty much same as the old. The cryptocurrency market suffered a setback as China’s central bank said that all cryptocurrency related transactions are illegal. Global stock markets witnessed sharp sell off in the middle of the month after concerns arose that Evergrande Group, a China based property developer, might default on its interest payments and lead to a contagion in global credit markets. The diplomatic crisis between US, China and Canada culminated in a sudden resolution after Meng Wanzhou, the Huawei executive, struck a deferred prosecution agreement with the US authorities paving way for her release from house arrest. Shortly after, the two Michaels also boarded plane to return to Canada Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell both emphasized that the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling would be catastrophic and treasury will run out of cash around 18 October. In a survey of Bloomberg Economists, the third-quarter US GDP growth was lowered to a 5.0% annualized rate, down from a previous estimate of 7.0% driven by resurgence of Covid-19. How does this affect my investments? The stock markets are inherently volatile and short-term market movements are impossible to predict. Historically, market declines have been followed by recoveries and new highs. By staying invested in a diversified portfolio, your portfolio will be well positioned to benefit from a recovery while mitigating the volatility experienced during the period.
- All Eyes on Inflation
“There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen” – Vladimir Llyich Lenin. Almost a century after the above words were declared, global developments during the last few weeks suggest that they still ring true. Hopes of a truce between Ukraine and Russia seem low as the war continues. The details that have emerged from the negotiations suggest that no real progress has been made. Nevertheless, the short-term impact of war on the North American and European equity markets has been completely reversed. As of April 1st, 2022, the S&P 500 Index is up by ~+7.7%, the S&P TSX Index is up by ~+6.2%, and the STOXX Europe 600 index is up by ~+1.6% since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. The story is different for the first quarter of 2022 where except for the Canadian Index (S&P TSX), which was up by ~+3.8%, the US and European indices (S&P 500 Index and STOXX Europe 600 Index) are down by -5.9% and -4.60%, respectively. The price action indicates the narratives of inflation and the start of an interest rate hike cycle by the central banks that have been more relevant to the financial markets. The short-term impact of war might be limited, however, the trends that have been set in motion are sure to dictate the trajectory of financial markets in the years to come. For instance – it is certain that Europe will have to invest substantially to reduce/eliminate its dependency on Russian energy imports. While Europe is likely to embrace sustainable forms of energy, fossil fuels will also play an important role as Europe will need readily available sources to achieve their energy needs. This implies an increase in capital expenditures and a higher inflation rate related to higher energy costs. The Western countries will also need to increase their capital expenditure on military equipment and preparedness. Ukraine and Russia together account for ~25% of the world’s wheat production. Wheat prices have risen since the start of the war as supplies have been disrupted. Russia is a large exporter of fertilizers. If the World decides to force sanctions or seek to sever ties with Russia, this could mean more food inflation. Since all this is coming to pass at a time when inflation is already running hot and supply chains are still fractured by the pandemic, Central Banks looking to tighten monetary policies to tame inflation have a challenging task ahead. In March, the Bank of Canada and the US Federal reserve started the interest rate hike cycle by increasing the policy rates by 25 basis points. With inflation in Canada at 5.7% and in the US at 7.9%, market participants are now expecting the Central Banks to accelerate the pace of rate hikes with another 6 to 8 increases of 25 basis points each over the remainder of the year. The challenge for Central Banks is to determine the neutral policy rate, i.e., the rate at which interest rates are not too low to further add inflationary pressures and not too high to curb economic growth. The price action in bond markets suggests bond markets are expecting a policy error that could lead to an economic recession. As of April 1st, the most-watched section of the US yield curve (2-year-10-year) has inverted, i.e., the yield on a 2-year treasury is higher than the yield on a 10-year treasury. While the usefulness of an inverted yield curve in predicting a recession is often debated due to potential false positives, historically, an inversion of a yield curve has often preceded an economic recession by ~18-24 months (see chart). Chart 1. US Yield Curve 2Y-10Y spread and US Recession Source: Bloomberg On the other hand, despite some jitters, equity markets have remained overall relatively resilient. Given that equity markets typically peak 3 to 6 months before the actual recession hits, and corporate earnings expectations have yet to show any sign of weakness, we think it is too early to look negatively at equities. Nevertheless, as a hedge against the rising interest rate environment and the increasing uncertainty, we think it is prudent to increase allocation to the low assets in a portfolio. The fixed income asset class could stage a rally in the near term after producing a year-to-date decline of approximately 6% to 7%, however, high inflation and rising interest rates indicate that the outlook remains challenging. Looking ahead, we think that increasing exposure to select pockets of markets with a skew towards high quality, low valuation, and low duration assets is the best way forward.
- In Limbo
In general, April is considered a strong month in the markets. Since 1970, April performance of the S&P 500 Index has yielded positive price returns ~70% of the time and the S&P TSX Index has yielded positive price returns ~60% of the time. April 2022, however, struggled as the S&P 500 Index and the S&P TSX Index price returns came in at ~-8.7% and ~-5.2%, respectively. As of April 30th, the drawdown of ~13.31% showing on the S&P 500 is most like the decline of -11.45% in 1970 (Chart 1). Comparatively, the S&P TSX Index fared better with a price decline of -2.17%. The drawdown in bond markets also set records with measures of aggregate bond markets declining by ~9.9% in the US and ~9.5% in Canada. These are the worst recorded declines since 1976 for the US (The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index) and since 2002 for Canada (Bloomberg Canada Aggregate Total Return Index Unhedged CAD) (See Chart 2). Chart 1 S&P 500 Index and S&P TSX Performance (January to April) Source: Bloomberg Chart 2 US and Canada - Aggregate Bond Market Performance (January-to-April) Source: Bloomberg In April, bond markets continued to aggressively price against expectations of large interest rate hikes. The 10-year bond yields jumped by ~60 basis points in the US and by ~46 basis points in Canada after inflation numbers came ahead of expectations at +8.5% in the US and +6.7% in Canada. The reaction from bond markets indicates that the fixed income traders believe that Central Banks are behind the curve on controlling inflation, and therefore, will be forced to slam the brakes on the economy by delivering high interest rate hikes at a faster rate. On the other hand, equity market investors seemed to have taken a relatively benign view of the inflation narrative, up until a couple of developments later in the month. First, a report* on April 20 showed inflation in Canada blew past expectations. Second, the US Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, stated on April 21, that front-loading rate hikes by increasing interest rates by 50 basis points in May would be appropriate. The above developments were followed by comments from certain Fed officials indicating the prospect of a supersized 75 basis points could also be entertained. The volatility in equity markets was exacerbated during the last two weeks of the month as the above developments provided fuel to the narrative that inflation is becoming more persistent. Also, the Central banks have been pushed into a corner where the only way out of the situation is to aggressively hike interest rates which may lead the economy towards a recession. While equity markets are always dealing with some form of uncertainty, the factors mentioned below make the current situation somewhat unique: The war in Ukraine is at a point where no simple solution is in sight. The prospects of a ban on Russian energy supplies and the extent of its impact on the European economy. Incremental inflationary pressures as China, the World’s manufacturing factory, locks down again to deal with the threat of a new wave of Covid-19. The unprecedented stimulus measures during the pandemic and the subsequent impact of its unwinding. We believe that all the above factors could influence inflation and thus the inflation narrative is the most important variable to watch. The unpredictability of the above factors lies in estimating the extent of their contribution to inflationary pressures and the Central Banks’ policy response. Thus far, the equity markets’ reaction is aligning with historical precedence where equity markets initially look for direction (expressed with an increase in volatility) at the start of the interest rate hikes cycle and then realign and adjust after the policy path becomes clear. Since the policy path is dependent upon the inflation trajectory, equity market volatility may be here to stay until the inflation rate starts to level off or even better, soften in the coming months. As supply chain pressures ease and the World economy moves forward, a shift in consumer spending from goods to services suggests such a scenario is not impossible. *Statistics Canada
- Wealth Market Update - August 2021
Dear Client, We hope you are enjoying the last moments of summer. As restrictions continue to list and with students returning to school, it feels as though life is returning to “normal” in Canada. As per the COVID-19 Tracker data, ~73.05% of the population in Ontario has received at least one dose and ~67.1% of the population is fully vaccinated. Overall Canada's numbers are similar at ~73.06 of the total population having received at least one dose and ~66.36% being fully vaccinated. By contrast, the number for the US stands at ~61.6% of the total population with one dose and ~52.3% of the total population being fully vaccinated as per data from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Over the last one-month period, the 7-day average daily infection cases for Canada increased from ~692 per day to ~3k per day and the 7-day average daily infection cases for the US have increased from ~83k to ~135k per day, as of this writing. Despite increasing infection rates, Epidemiologists believe the latest wave will not be as worrisome as previous ones due to improving vaccination rates. The investor skepticism around second-quarter earnings season, China’s crackdown on its technology companies, and the news flow on the spread of the contagious Delta variant of Covid -19 kept the stock markets volatile for most of the month. Investor enthusiasm returned towards the end of the month as the Feds continued with its moderate tone and corporate earnings fared better than expected. Macroeconomic and market developments: In August, the S&P 500 index and S&P TSX traded higher; led by the Information technology, the Financials, and the Communications sectors. The Energy sector lagged on both sides of the border while the decline in the Materials sector dragged the S&P TSX ensuring the S&P 500 index performed better than the S&P TSX for the month. As per Bloomberg data (as of Aug 30th), for the second quarter of 2021, ~83% of the S&P 500 companies reported better-than-expected revenues and ~86% reported better-than-expected earnings. For TSX, ~65% of companies beat on revenues and ~60% of the companies beat on earnings. The Chinese stocks listed in the US faced severe selling pressure after the country’s administration issued rules to prevent unfair online competition and indicated it will increase scrutiny across various industries to protect consumers. The economic data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US indicated that inflation was flat at 5.4% in July while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in July from 5.9% in June. The corresponding figures for Canada were inflation climbing from 3.7% in July to 3.1% in June and the unemployment rate declining from 7.8% in June to 7.5% in July as per Statistics Canada. The US 10-yr government bond yields advanced by ~6.5 basis points since the start of the month, while the Canadian 10-yr bond yields declined by ~1.5 basis points. The US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said that the central bank could start reducing their monthly bond purchases this year, however, they would not be in a hurry to increase interest rates. How does this affect my investments?
- Wealth Market Recap - June 2020
Dear Client, We hope that your family remains safe and well. Please find below a summary of the latest market developments. Market developments North American equity markets proved volatile this week, reacting to increasing numbers of COVID-19 infections in 27 states and fears of new lockdowns and decreased economic activity. In particular, cases continued to soar in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects global economic output to contract by 4.9% in 2020, with U.S. output contracting by 8.0% and Canadian output by 8.4%. Ratings agency Fitch Ratings downgraded Canada's credit rating to 'AA+' from 'AAA' to reflect the deterioration of public finances due to COVID-19. New Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that Canada’s economy will take a long time to fully recover from lockdowns, requiring the central bank to continue purchasing government bonds to keep interest rates low indefinitely. President Donald Trump said that a second stimulus bill was coming and would likely be announced in the next few weeks. Weekly jobless claims in the U.S. were 1.48 million, and real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 5.0% in the first quarter of 2020. How does this affect my investments? A resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the United States has caused investors to consider the implications of a second series of lockdowns; something many hoped would be unnecessary moving forward. As economic forecasts continue to show the damage caused by the pandemic, it is understandable that sentiment may turn bearish in the short term. With that said, staying on track with your long-term plan ultimately proved wise and our advice is to continue to do so. The chart below illustrates this point, demonstrating that often when investors turn increasingly bearish (moved by fear and pessimism), markets may be poised to move the other way. We are always happy to discuss your investment plans. Please do not hesitate to contact us at (613) 258-1997. Sincerely, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning team Sources: CI Investments Inc., marketwatch.com, fxstreet.com, theglobeandmail.com, fitchratings.com, bostonglobe.com, and forbes.com. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness. Before acting on any of the above, please make sure to see a professional advisor for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.
- Wealth Market Recap - May 2020
We hope that all is well with you and your family as we enjoy warmer weather and experience the gradual easing of lockdown restrictions. Below you will find a summary of what has taken place in the economy and markets in recent weeks, as well as some additional thoughts. Market developments North American markets moved higher this week, propelled by U.S. Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the Fed was “not out of ammunition by a long shot” and not to bet against the U.S. economy in the medium or long run. Market optimism was also buoyed by positive results from Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine phase 1 clinical trial. The Canadian government announced expanded eligibility for emergency business loans to include businesses that have filed either a 2018 or 2019 tax return and have expenses between $40,000 and $1.5 million per year. Canada’s consumer price index was down 0.2% year-over-year, the first such decline since September 2009. The U.S. Census Bureau announced that housing starts in April were 29.7% below the April 2019 rate, a negative but expected sign for the economy. Weekly jobless claims were 2.438 million, bringing the cumulative nine-week tally to 38.6 million. The price of U.S. oil reached two-month highs as lockdown restrictions eased even further in much of the world and supply continued to decrease. How does this affect my investments? The markets have continued to rebound in the face of a great deal of uncertainty related to both the progress of the pandemic and the prospects for an economic recovery, further demonstrating the risk of attempting to time your investments based on short-term reactions. Much of this week’s optimism appears to have been fostered by the potential for both a vaccine and additional government stimulus. Whether reality will live up to this potential on either front has yet to be seen, which is why your investment plan does not depend on it. Considering the news that continues to come out, including continued re-openings and poor economic data, the markets have both positive and negative indicators to choose from. As we have seen lately, they may alternate their focus from week to week, even when the news does not appear to be relevant. Therefore, we advise you to stay informed but to stick with your long-term plan. This allows you to remain unaffected by the market’s week-to-week fluctuations. As always, we are happy to discuss your investment plans. Please do not hesitate to contact us at (877) 899-1997. Sincerely, O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning Sources: CI Investments Inc., nbcnews.com, cnbc.com, reuters.com and ctvnews.com IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness. Before acting on any of the above, please make sure to see a professional advisor for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Assante Capital Management Ltd. is a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.
- Bears, Bulls, or Beings
O’Farrell Wealth & Estate Planning works in partnership with Assante Wealth Management to offer a full range of investment solutions. The creation of our wealth management team ensures we are delivering suitable financial solutions in the developing investment landscape. The wealth management team actively monitors the markets to identify investment opportunities for our client’s portfolios. This team works closely with our advisors to develop tailor-made solutions to meet your retirement goals. Our objective is to keep our clients informed on the latest market developments and provide some perspective on the major themes we see in the economy. COVID-19 Update Two of the world’s biggest virus hotspots, Italy and Spain, have shown a decrease in the number of daily new virus cases after two-to-four weeks of strict lockdown measures. While the return to normalcy may still be far away, the progress seen in these countries in bringing the pandemic under control is encouraging. A vaccine for COVID-19 continues to be researched. There is an interesting study on a Tuberculosis vaccine (BCG) that demonstrates that those who have been inoculated with BCG vaccine are six times less likely to contract COVID-19. The BCG vaccine has other promising effects such as reducing respiratory illness and boosting the immune system. Countries with mandatory BCG vaccinations have had much less impact from the virus in comparison to countries where this vaccination is voluntary. This study is promising as the safety profile of the BCG vaccine is well established and some production capacity is already in place. Subject to the positive outcome of trials, this could be a potent addition to the arsenal of drugs available to healthcare providers to manage COVID-19 until a targeted vaccine is developed. If you are interested in reading the study, the link can be found below. With Global coronavirus cases increasing from ~1 million to ~3.26 million (as of this writing); the month of April is shaping up to be the worst month this year for economic activity and the disruption of day to day life. Nevertheless, evidence from countries that have successfully flattened the curve indicate there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Collapse of Oil The month of April saw oil prices collapse to new lows as a result of a disagreement between OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia on reducing their oil production amidst the coronavirus pandemic. Russia’s refusal to cut production lead to Saudi Arabia flooding the market with an oversupply of oil, placing downward pressure on prices. In an attempt to support the price of oil, the US administration extended production cuts to assist OPEC+ in finding a solution to their ongoing feud. As of last week, OPEC+ has come to an agreement to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels a day beginning in May, while a deal was made with the US to cut production by ~300,000 barrels per day. After an initial positive reaction, oil gains had reverted as the proposed production cuts did not seem to be enough to offset the expected demand decline due to the pandemic. The dislocation in oil prices took an extreme turn on April 20th when crude oil contracts traded at -$38 per barrel largely due to storage capacity limitations. This situation has since resolved with WTI crude oil trading at ~$19.12 as of this writing. Market Update (as of April 30th, 2020) As always, thank you for your referrals this month! They are always handled with great care and discretion. “Is Global BCG Vaccination Coverage Relevant To The Progression Of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic?” Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7136957/ ) Contact Us Phone: 877-989-1997 Email: hsmith@assante.com
- Wealth Market Update - Dec 2020
Dear Client, We hope that you and your family had a great Christmas holiday even though the lockdown and other restrictions made it look different than years past. Daily worldwide new infections have jumped from about ~625-650k as of early December to about 700k as of this writing. The month of December also witnessed the beginning of approvals and the production and administration of vaccines. As we embark on the journey of vaccination to build a defence against the pandemic, the year 2021 is well placed to be a year of recovery. We wish you and your family a very Happy New Year 2021. Macroeconomic and market developments In December, both the S&P 500 Index and S&P/TSX Composite Index managed to register gains helped by news about the approval of vaccines from major pharmaceutical companies and their administration. In its final meeting of the year, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the US agreed to keep the target interest rates in the range of 0%-0.25% and forecasted to hold interest rates near zero at least until the end of 2023. The US Electoral College confirmed Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 US presidential election with 306 electoral college votes against 232 for Donald Trump. Donald Trump continues to challenge the election results. Most of the Trump campaign’s legal challenges have been rejected by the courts which clears the way for Joe Biden to be inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States on January 20th. The decision on fiscal stimulus has continued to linger on as Democrats and Republicans spar over the amount of support to be provided. The House of Democrats are requesting $2,000 per month for each eligible adult while Senate Republicans have agreed to $600. How does this affect my investments? The stock markets are inherently volatile and short-term market movements are impossible to predict. Historically, market declines have been followed by recoveries and new highs. By staying invested, your portfolio will be well positioned to benefit from a recovery. If you have any questions about your investment portfolio, your advisor at O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning would be happy to discuss them with you. Sincerely, O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning Sources: Bloomberg
- Wealth Market Update - March 2021
Dear Client, We hope that you and your family are enjoying the spring weather and warmer temperatures. Although the weather is improving, the pandemic has brought an increase in the daily number of worldwide infections of Covid-19 (325k at the start of the month to about 630k as of this writing). The third wave of Covid-19 has once again led to restriction. Nevertheless, given that the vaccine distribution increased, the stock market trading continued to align with the expectations of an economic recovery. The sectors that benefitted from ‘stay-at-home’ mode of economy traded lower relative to sectors that benefit from ‘return-to-normal’ mode of economy. Below we highlight a few noteworthy developments over the last month. Macroeconomic and market developments In March, the S&P 500 index continued to look for direction as a rise in bond yields was supported by expectations of high inflation which, in turn, helped the financial sector while dragging the technology sector. Driven by the cyclical energy and financials sectors, the S&P/TSX continued its advance. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil prices witnessed tumultuous trading as prices jumped from ~USD 60 per barrel at the start of the month to ~USD 66 per barrel in the mid of the month and back to USD 61 per barrel as of this writing. The Federal Chairman, Jerome Powell, reemphasized that the Feds will hold interest rates at their current level until at least 2023 even as policymakers raised the GDP growth forecasts to 6.5% from 4.2% and inflation forecast to 2.4% from 1.8% for the year 2021. Expectations of higher inflation led to a continued rise in bond yields that weighed on fixed income assets during the month. The Federal Chairman Jerome Powell continued to downplay the risk of high inflation as forecasts indicate inflation will fall back to 2% in 2022. How does this affect my investments? The stock markets are inherently volatile and short-term market movements are impossible to predict. Historically, market declines have been followed by recoveries and new highs. By staying invested in a diversified portfolio, your portfolio will be well positioned to benefit from a recovery while mitigating the volatility experienced during the period. If you have any questions about your investment portfolio, your advisor at O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning would be happy to discuss them with you. Sincerely, O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning
- Wealth Market Update - May 2021
Dear Client, We hope that you and your family are well and enjoying this spring weather. Over the past month, the pandemic continued to worsen across the globe even as the pace of vaccine administration accelerated. The number of daily new infections increased from about 650k per day at the beginning of April to about 850k as of this writing. In comparison to the developed countries, the emerging markets have lagged in vaccine distribution and the latest Covid wave has hit them hard. In the financial markets, year-to-date, the cyclical recovery theme was evident in the outperformance of Energy and Financials sector. As the ‘return-to-normal’ theme got overextended in the short term, the last month witnessed a relative comeback from the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Below we mention a few noteworthy developments over the last month. Macroeconomic and market developments In April, the S&P 500 Index advanced underpinned by a recovery in Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors as the Energy Sector, the flagbearer of the recovery trade so far, took a breather. The story on this side of the border was similar except that the heavyweight materials sector also saw an increase on the back of gold prices that advanced by ~4.1% from the beginning of April to as of this writing. The Bank of Canada announced that it is keeping benchmark interest rate low at 0.25%. They did announce, however, that there is a possibility of its inflation target being hit during the second half of 2022 rather than 2023 as previously expected. This could indicate that the interest rate increase in Canada could come earlier than 2023. Stimulus checks, progress in vaccine administration, and the reopening of the US economy led to a sharp increase in consumer confidence. An index measuring the US Consumer confidence advanced sharply in April to 121.7 from 109.0 in March. In February 2020, this index was at 132.6 before the pandemic caused it to drop. US Federal Reserve alleviated bond market concerns by reiterating it is not considering slowing the pace of bond purchases anytime soon and the recent increase in the inflation looks transitory. How does this affect my investments? The stock markets are inherently volatile and short-term market movements are impossible to predict. Historically, market declines have been followed by recoveries and new highs. By staying invested in a diversified portfolio, your portfolio will be well positioned to benefit from a recovery while mitigating the volatility experienced during the period. If you have any questions about your investment portfolio, your advisor at O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning would be happy to discuss them with you. Sincerely, O’Farrell Wealth and Estate Planning








